Week 11 features a matchup of division leaders as the NFC North leading Green Bay Packers take on the AFC South leading Indianapolis Colts.
This matchup will feature the Packers’ high scoring offense versus one of the NFL’s stingiest defenses in the Indianapolis Colts. Will the Packers pick up a big road win or will the Colts defend their home turf? Kickoff inside Lucas Oil Stadium is at 4:25PM ET.
These two teams have played against each other 45 times and it’s the Colts that hold the all-time advantage with a 23-21-1 record. They last played in 2016 and the Colts won 32 to 26. Indy has won three of the last five matchups. Additionally, the Colts are 14-8-1 in home contests versus the Packers.
The Green Bay Packers (7-2) has won two games in a row, but struggled against the Jaguars last week as they held on to win 24 to 20. The Packers are 4-1 on the road and look to improve their overall winning streak to three games. Can the Packers crack the code of this Colts defense?
The Indianapolis Colts (6-3) is now sitting on top of the AFC South after an impressive Week 10 beat down of the Tennessee Titans. The Colts went to Tennessee and crushed the Titans 34 to 17. Now, they look to go 4-1 at home this season with a big win over the visiting Packers.
Head to Head Betting Trends
Indy 4-2 SU in last six meetings
Indy 4-2 ATS in last six games
Over is 6-0 in last six matchups
Packers 4-10-1 SU versus Colts
Packers 2-7 ATS in last nine matchups
Green Bay Packers Betting Trends
13-3 SU in last 16 overall games
7-2 SU this season
4-1 SU in road games this year
8-2 SU in last 10 AFC games
6-3 ATS this season
4-1 AST in road games this year
8-4 ATS when spread is +3 to -3
9-3 ATS in last 12 AFC games
Under is 4-2 in last six games
Under is 5-2 in last seven November games
Indianapolis Colts Betting Trends
6-2 SU in last eight games
8-3 SU in last 11 NFC games
3-0 SU in NFC North games
15-9 SU in turf games
7-1 SU when a home favorite of 3pts or less
8-1 ATS in last 10 NFC games
6-1 ATS when a home favorite of 3pts or less
10-5 ATS when playing against a winning team
Under is 4-1 in last five home games
Over is 4-1 in last five games
The spread opened with the Packers favored by three points. However, the line has moved dramatically since then and now the Colts are favored by 2.5 points with most NFL betting sites.
The Over/Under opened at 49 points and went as high as 51.5 points before settling at an O/U of 51 total points with most online betting sites.
Free NFL Sports Bet and Game Prediction: Colts (-140)
I thought about going with Indy -2.5 points, but the -117 odds wasn’t much better than their -140 moneyline. I’m sure you can shop around and find that moneyline at lower odds.
I think this is going to be an exciting game, but I believe many of the in-game matchups will favor the Colts.
Green Bay has the 3rd highest scoring offense in the NFL at 30.8ppg. However, the Colts have the 4th best scoring defense as they allow just 19.7ppg and only gave up 17 points to the Titans last week.
The Packers have the 6th best passing offense (286.5 ypg) and the 11th best rushing attack (121.4 ypg). Yet, the Colts have the 2nd best pass defense (214.9 ypg) and the 3rd best rush defense (91.8 ypg).
When looking over those stats, it’s clear that the Colts’ defense has the advantage. On the flip side, the Packers defense and the Colts offense are both ranked in the middle of the league. So, I believe this game will come down to whichever unit can win this specific battle.
Last weekend, Green Bay gave up over 100 yards on the ground to Jacksonville’s running back James Robinson. I believe the Colts’ trio of Taylor, Wilkins and Hines will put up close to 150 yards on the ground against a Packers rush defense that gives up 110.8 rushing ypg.
Green Bay’s secondary allows 241.2 passing ypg, but they have been susceptible to giving up big games this season. The Packers allowed nearly 288 yards passing to Drew Brees of the Saints and they gave up over 300 yards passing to Deshaun Watson of the Texans.
The Packers won both of those games, but that was largely due to the opposing defenses as Houston gave up 35 points and the Saints gave up 37 points. The Colts have a top ranked defense that won’t give up 30 points and they also have a Top 10 passing attack.
As long as Philip Rivers doesn’t turn the ball over more than once, the Colts should win this game against the Packers. Rivers just threw for 308 yards against the Titans and I wouldn’t be surprised if he flirts with 275 yards this weekend.
The Green Bay Packers are 4-10-1 SU and 2-7 ATS versus the Colts in the modern era. Furthermore, they’re 0-4-1 SU in the last five games at Indy.
I’m taking the Colts to win this game as their defense will clamp down on Green Bay’s top receiver DaVante Adams and make another WR beat them. They shut down Tennessee’s top receiver AJ Brown last week and they will do the same to Adams this weekend.
Furthermore, I believe Rivers will lead this offense to more success in the red zone than Rodgers and the Packers. Take the Colts to win 27 to 24.
As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site. ...
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