Hornets vs Pelicans – Free NBA Pick for March 13th
I was right not to trust the Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday night. OKC has proven to be a good team over the course of the year, but they’ve played down to the level of their competition and have struggled mightily against the spread.
That got me on the Kings to beat a big +12.5 point spread and Sacramento thankfully obliged. The win marked my fourth in my last five tries and pushed my season NBA picks record to a solid 56-46-2.
I felt forced into making a pick I didn’t want to, but I made the best of a pretty bad four-game slate and pulled out a win. On Tuesday bettors have a lot more to get excited about, as 11 games hit the NBA betting schedule.
There are a lot of options on this slate, with a whopping six games opening with -5.5 point spreads or lower.
While there are many paths to consider, my favorite betting angle goes down in New Orleans, where the red hot Pelicans host the Charlotte Hornets.
New Orleans offers pretty interesting value in this spot, as the’re mild -4.5 favorites and sport a playable -185 Moneyline at 5Dimes.
Considering the Pels have a healthy Anthony Davis back and have won eight of their last 10 games, New Orleans feels like a fun bet.
Adding to the allure is the fact that the Hornets are just a middling team in general (5-5 over their last 10 games) and tend to struggle (10-21 this year) away from home.
Should bettors back the Pels in some fashion, or chase the upside in the underdog Hornets (+185 at BetOnline)?
First off, I don’t even love the upside with the Hornets. They are looking at a very nice matchup due to flat out terrible defense by the Pels (one reason why the Over is in play), but they’re just not returning staggering value for how bad they are on the road.
Charlotte obviously has not gotten the job done with regularity outside of Charlotte, but the scary part is they often don’t even keep it close.
The Hornets are just 7-13-4 ATS as road underdogs, 8-20-4 as underdogs in general against the spread and 10-17-4 ATS on the road (worst in the NBA). All of that is terrible and probably is enough to get me off the Hornets in just about any regard.
Dwight Howard is the only person that can keep this game from getting out of control. He is Charlotte’s answer for The Brow, but he obviously could struggle with foul trouble or simply have a difficult time scoring on Davis.
Anthony Davis has simply been unstoppable this year and I doubt Howard is going to give him any issues. The Pels have also gotten stellar play out of Rajon Rondo, Jrue Holiday and Nikola Mirotic.
This New Orleans team can’t defend to save their lives, but their offense (2nd in pace, 8th in efficiency) is on fire. I know the Pels will put up points on their end, so the only question resides with the Hornets.
Charlotte actually has a more dynamic offense than people seem to think. The Hornets put up over 106 points per game on the year and actually rank 9th in pace. Due to that, I like the odds of this game possessing a nice pace and a good amount of points.
A 230 Total is still a reach, but if you need a play there, I’d target the Over.
As intriguing as that betting angle is, my favorite play is the Pels as a straight up bet. Not only has New Orleans been ablaze, but they’ve played their best ball at home.
The Pels are just 17-14 at home on the year, but they’ve been in terrific form and have had nice success when favored by the top basketball betting sites. Specifically, the Pels have posted an impressive 25-14 record as straight up favorites, as well as 14-9 when favored at home.
I really don’t trust either of these teams against the spread right now and I’d tentatively target the Over.
The best bet is the Pels SU at home, however, and I like the -185 line I’m seeing at 5Dimes. That’s due to a combination of the Pels responding well to being favorites and Charlotte having serious issues getting wins on the road all year.
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