Indians vs. White Sox MLB Pick – July 30, 2021

By in MLB on
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Indians vs. White Sox
Indians at White Sox Pick: Under 8.5 (-110)
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We have a huge night of MLB baseball ahead on deadline day as 15 games hit the docket.

We’ll get in on the action with an Indians vs. White Sox MLB Pick from Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago!

Indians vs. White Sox Betting Odds

Odds Cleveland Indians Chicago White Sox
Moneyline Odds +185 -215
Runline Odds +1.5 (-110) -1.5 (-110)
Over/Under Odds Over 8.5 (-110) Under 8.5 (-110)


If the Indians still want to remain on the fringes of the playoff race they’re going to need to start racking up wins in a hurry as they take on the White Sox tonight, the one team ahead of them in the AL Central standings, albeit by a comfy eight-game margin.

Cleveland’s starting rotation has been decimated by injuries this season, and one player who’s gotten an opportunity as a result gets the ball tonight in the form of right-hander J.C. Mejia.

Still just 24, it’s been a tough go for Mejia as part of his MLB debut. He’s made nine starts and three relief appearances, but owns a 7.52 ERA on the season. His peripherals are better with a 5.27 FIP, 5.24 xERA, 4.02 xFIP and 4.15 SIERA, but the bottom-line results have been quite poor.

He’s been bitten by the home run ball with a 1.99 HR/9 on the season, but it appears there’s some bad luck mixed in there. Despite a quality ground-ball rate of nearly 48%, Mejia has allowed home runs on 24.3% of the fly-balls he’s surrendered this season. Now, a huge 48.3% hard-hit rate doesn’t help as that figure sits in the bottom 3% of the league, but he’s been above-average with a 7.5% barrel rate against him as well.

That said, the remainder of the Statcast data is largely frowning upon his work. He sits in the 15th percentile in average exit velocity, xwOBA and xERA, 9th in xBA and 19th in xSLG.

He’s also been shelled for an 8.34 ERA in 22.2 innings on the road this season, albeit with a 4.88 FIP and 3.92 xFIP.

We’ll see if the results start falling towards his peripherals as we move along.

Selling Lumber

While the Indians are still at least on the outskirts of the playoff race at five games back of the second Wild Card spot, there’s still a handful of teams closer than they are and it appears reality has set in on the front office.

It was announced this afternoon that the club has traded Eddie Rosario to the Atlanta Braves, but he wasn’t exactly enjoying a banner year with just seven homers and a career-worst 84 wRC+ on the year.

That said, not many of Rasario’s now-former teammates are having great years at the dish, either. Once again, Cleveland is well into the bottom 10 on offense, currently sitting in a three-way tie with the D-backs and Cardinals for 24th with a .301 wOBA on the season.

Since they’re set to face a right-handed pitcher, it’s worth noting that the Indians also sit in another three-way tie, this time for 22nd with a .299 wOBA off righties, so they’ve been every so slightly better versus left-handers this season.

On the road, they rank 23rd with a .293 wOBA, so we are indeed dealing with a firm bottom-10 offense once again in Cleveland.

Buoying Bullpen

With the starting pitching dealing with plenty of injuries and the offense once again of the light-hitting variety, the Cleveland bullpen is responsible for at least keeping the club in the playoff race’s periphery.

That group has been one of the better bullpens in baseball over the last few seasons and that’s once again the case this time around as they rank fifth overall with a 3.54 ERA on the season while their 3.86 FIP and 3.85 xFIP are quality numbers as well.

In terms of batted-ball data, the Indians sit closer to the middle of the pack in terms of hard-hit rate, but they also slip all the way to 24th with an 8.4% barrel rate against on the season. Despite that figure their 1.11 HR/9 against on the season sits in a tie for 11th.

We’ll see if the Indians plan on moving a reliever in this seller’s market prior to the 4 pm ET trade deadline.

White Sox

The Sox are a postseason lock as they look to potentially plug some holes today, but their best trade of late was done this winter when they acquired right-hander Lance Lynn from the Texas Rangers.

Lynn has been dynamite on the south side, turning in a 1.91 ERA across 18 starts on the year, although his peripherals do at least suggest some upcoming regression with a 3.15 FIP/3.96 xFIP/3.79 SIERA.

Nonetheless, the bottom-line results are flat-out elite. He’s dominated at home to the tune of a 1.50 ERA and boasts some fantastic advanced numbers. Lynn ranks in the 92nd percentile in xwOBA and xERA, 89th in xBA and 93rd in xSLG. His 7% barrel rate is closer to league average, but home runs haven’t been much of an issue with 0.87 homers allowed per nine innings this season.

The consistency has been remarkable. Lynn has allowed exactly one run in each of his last four starts and one or less in five in a row. Aside from a six-run outing in Houston on June 19, Lynn has kept the opposition to three runs or less in his other 17 starts this season. That number goes to two or less in 15 of 18 starts and one or less in 13 of 18 starts. Remarkable work.

That subpar Indians offense is going to have their hands full tonight.

Injuries Bugging Bats

On-field production aside, the offensive story with this White Sox team continues to be injuries.

They just got Eloy Jimenez back from the IL after he tore a pectoral muscle in spring training, Luis Robert has been out since May with a hip injury, Nick Madrigal is out for the season with a hamstring issue and Yasmani Grandal needed surgery on his knee after tweaking it during an at-bat and is likely out until late August.

Under normal circumstances, these injuries would be killer. That said, this White Sox offense is not normal, and in fact they’re quite good.

Chicago is tied for seventh league wide with a .325 wOBA on the season and is tied for ninth with a .323 mark against right-handed pitching. Is it worth noting that their power is down from last season as their .158 ISO off righties sits in a tie for 18th alongside the Seattle Mariners.

This is a group that needs to pick it up of late, however. They’re coming off a shutout loss in Kansas City yesterday and have averaged just 2.13 runs per game over their last eight and have scored three runs or less in seven of those eight games.

Keep an eye on the status of both Jose Abreu and Eloy Jimenez in this one. Abreu didn’t play due to a stiff neck yesterday and Jimenez also missed yesterday’s contest with the Royals due to a groin injury. We’ll see if these key cobs return to the lineup tonight.

Bullpen Blues

The White Sox had one of the better bullpens in baseball last season and added closer Liam Hendriks in the offseason. They were expect to once again hover around the top five again this season, but while Hendriks has enjoyed another All-Star season, this group has fallen apart of late.

Overall, the Sox bullpen sits in a tie for 13th with a 4.05 ERA on the season, although they own a solid 3.99 FIP and 3.95 xFIP. Still, they’ve surrendered 1.32 HR/9 on the back of a 25th-ranked 39.8% hard-hit rate and a middle of the pack barrel rate.

Since the All-Star break, the White Sox bullpen sits 22nd with a 4.95 ERA, which is partly why they went out and added former Cubs closer Craig Kimbrel in another cross-town deal after they added fellow right-hander Ryan Tepera yesterday.

Indians vs. White Sox MLB Pick

Pick: Under 8.5
Odds: -110
$100 Could Win You...$190.91

I’m looking for a low-scoring affair tonight in Chicago.

I have a difficult time seeing this Indians offense getting to Lynn, but there should be some positive regression coming for Mejia. His peripherals are well below his ERA and that’s especially the case on the road as his xFIP of 3.92 away from home is miles below his 8.34 road ERA.

Also, this White Sox offense has been ice cold despite the excellent season-long work. Without Abreu and Jimenez yesterday that group struggles and there’s no guarantee either of them return to action tonight.

The White Sox bullpen needs to get turned around, but Cleveland’s ‘pen is still pitching well and is capable of keeping this White Sox offense in check.

Add it up and you can sign me up for the Under 8.5 between these two AL Central rivals. Head over to BetUS to get started placing your bet!

James Peralta

As a recent addition to the team, James Peralta has been covering everything about casinos, sports, and laws that are specific to online gambling in Canada. James started writing about sports in 2007 during his first year at U of T Mississauga. ...

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