Indians vs. Yankees ALDS Game 3 Preview and Pick
The New York Yankees got to Corey Kluber early in game two of the ALDS, but ultimately blew a 5-run lead and lost in 13 innings. Yikes, right?
New York showed some serious fight in their second game of this series, but an epic collapse like that could have the curtains falling. Cleveland, on the other hand, showed some amazing resilience in the face of a suddenly challenging opponent, yet could escape with an easy 3-0 sweep by taking game three on Sunday night.
While calling this one could prove to be difficult, we look to get solid betting value, no matter our stance. Top MLB betting sites like Bovada are calling this one quite close to the chest, with the Indians as mild -120 favorites on the road.
Carlos Carrasco (18-6, 3.29 ERA) tries to add to a very strong 2017 season with a win in his first career playoff start. That could proven difficult on the road against a lethal offense in the volatile Yankee Stadium.
On the other side the Yanks dig deep with arguable top ace, Masahiro Tanaka (13-12, 4.74 ERA). Unlike Carrasco, Tanaka has endured an up and down run this year but could fall back on his lone career playoff start (2015).
The pitching is good and the combination of the offenses and park is very dangerous. Suffice, to say, we have our work cut out for us here to make money to cap the weekend:
Things don’t look very stable going into this game, but three things scream at us; New York was never expected to be that competitive in this series, they probably can’t get over that awful game two collapse and the Indians actually give us killer value.
We weren’t able to bet on The Tribe straight up in game two, as Kluber’s presence drove their Money Line close to -300. There was simply no value in that, so we instead were forced to chase their -1.5 Run Line and ate a loss when they won by one run in 13 innings.
Tonight we get to back the Indians straight up, if we so choose. I do admit getting behind Carrasco with zero playoff experience is a bit risky, but he’s a very good pitcher and made his living this year (11-2, 2.65 ERA) on the road. This guy is simply a different player when he’s not at Progressive Field and there’s enough elite production to trust that.
Facing the Yankees in this park is still no joke, especially when we consider the only time he took on New York they blasted him to the tune of 5 runs on 6 hits. Then again, that was at Progressive Field and there wasn’t a trip to the next round of the playoffs on the line.
I’m not so sure Tanaka is any easier to trust in this spot. Cleveland is chomping at the bit to get back to the World Series, where they had the title in their hands and blew a 3-1 lead. It wouldn’t be shocking at all if they just kept living off of that insane 22-game winning streak we saw a month ago and raced to a title.
Many expect something close to that will happen, while most baseball betting sites have them neck and neck with the Dodgers as World Series favorites.
Getting back there starts with Carrasco holding serve tonight, while the Indians are probably in New York’s heads at this point.
Tanaka is a very good pitcher who tends to spin his best yarn at home, but Cleveland is not an easy offense to punch out. The Indians haven’t faced Tanaka yet this year, but he’s been known to give up loads of contact and has had issues with the long ball.
I do think Tanaka pitches well in this game, but I think he gets matched by Carrasco and the bullpen ends up giving this one away. New York could be ready for a last stand at home, but at an EVEN line, I’m not getting enough value to roll with them.
Cleveland, meanwhile, are the veteran team with more talent and experience, from top to bottom. They’re like sharks that smell blood in the water, too, and they know full well that letting the Yanks take game three is giving them dangerous life. Cleveland should look to kill that hope early and end this thing with a sweep before it turns back into a series.