Jets vs Golden Knights – NHL Game 3 Pick for May 16th
After a disappointing Game 1 loss, the Vegas Golden Knights came out in Game 2 and had a brilliant performance to even the series. In the opening game, Winnipeg jumped on Vegas early with 3 first period goals and cruised to a 4-2 victory. In the second game, Vegas jumped out to an early 2-0 lead and never looked back. That was largely due to Marc-Andre Fleury making his presence felt.
Fleury had a rough Game 1, which was a surprise to everyone not a fan of Winnipeg. He was the best goalie in the playoffs, but looked poor in the opening game. Fleury bounced back in Game 2 with 30 saves. He allowed one goal to get by him in the 3rd period, which was another power play goal for the Jets. Otherwise, Fleury would’ve had his 5th shutout of the postseason.
The Golden Knights have to be concerned with their PP killing unit as they’ve allowed Winnipeg to score on 3 of 7 PP opportunities. That means, 3 of Winnipeg’s 5 goals have come on the PP. Vegas will need to do better in Game 3 to prevent Winnipeg from having optimal scoring chances.
On offense, Vegas had 28 shots, which was 7 more than their Game 1 output. Additionally, they went 1-for-2 on the power play after going 0-for-2 in Game 1. Center Jonathan Marchessault scored two goals, including putting Vegas back up by 2 goals half-way through the 3rd after the Jets cut the deficit to one goal.
It’s important to note, that the team who scores first has won each game. Furthermore, the Jets have gone 8-1 after scoring the first goal and Vegas has gone 7-1 in the playoffs.
The series will shift to Vegas, where the Golden Knights have gone 4-1 in the playoffs and 29-10-2 during the regular season. However, the Jets are confident on the road as they’ve gone 4-1 in their last 5 postseason road games and outscored their opponents 21-9 during that span. Let’s not forget that they eliminated the Predators in a Game 7 showdown that took place in Nashville. These two teams played one time in Vegas during the regular season, with the Golden Knights winning 5-2.
For Vegas to win Game 3, they need another performance like Game 2. And, I see that as being more realistic than their performance in Game 1. Keep in mind, Fleury had a .951 save percentage heading into this series. After the last two games, Fleury’s numbers are still amazing at 1.83 gaa and .945 save percentage. He’s had a home shutout in each round of the playoffs so far and his only home loss came in Overtime. I don’t see the Jets outscoring the Knights like they have on the road against the Wild and the Predators.
Winnipeg has been great ATS in the playoffs. They’ve gone 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. Additionally, Vegas is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games. I feel good about Winnipeg covering the spread of +1.5 goals. However, the -270 odds just isn’t worth it.
So, I’m going with Vegas to win at home in Game 3 and the appealing -130 moneyline. Vegas is 6-1 SU in their last 7 home games and 9-3 SU in their last 12 overall games. They’re also 2-0 when tied in a playoff series and 10-5 after playing 3 consecutive road games (One at San Jose and two at Winnipeg).
Give me Fleury and the Golden Knights at home where Vegas will be rockin’!
Bet: Vegas Golden Knights (-130)
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