Kansas City Chiefs vs Cleveland Browns Odds, Pick and Prediction

by Rick Rockwell
on November 2, 2018
5

Minute Read

On Sunday, the high powered Kansas City Chiefs take their show on the road as they travel to Ohio to take on the Cleveland Browns. The Chiefs look to improve to 8-1 on the year while the Browns look to find some consistency after the firing of their head coach and offensive coordinator this week. Will KC pummel another opponent or will the Browns put up a fight? Kickoff inside FirstEnergy Stadium is at 1 PM ET.

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Chiefs vs Browns Live Odds and Betting History

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Betting Data Kansas City Chiefs Cleveland Browns
Current S/U record 7-1 2-5-1
2018 Home 4-0 2-1-1
2018 Away 3-1 0-4
2018 ATS 7-1 5-3
2018 ATS Home 3-1 3-1
2018 ATS Away 4-0 2-2
2018 O/U 4-4 4-4
2018 O/U Home 1-3 2-2
2018 O/U Away 3-1 2-2

Kansas City vs Cleveland AFC Game Preview

Surprisingly, this head-to-head series isn’t as lopsided as one would think. In the 25 times these two teams have played, the Chiefs hold the slight advantage with a 12-11-2 record. Kansas City has won 3 of the last 4 games, but these two teams haven’t played against each other since 2015 and the Chiefs won that game 17-13.

Kansas City (7-1) is coming off a hard-fought divisional win over the Broncos by a score of 30-23. Nevertheless, the Chiefs have won their last two games by a combined score of 75 to 33. Surprisingly, the Chiefs defense has also played better over that span as well. However, those two games were at home. Can the Chiefs play that well on defense this week at Cleveland?

The Browns (2-5-1) are once again, a hot mess. They fired head coach Hue Jackson this week in addition to OC Todd Haley. Defensive Coordinator Greg Williams was named the interim head coach. With all of this turmoil surrounding the franchise, one would have to believe that this mess will cause distractions for the team on Sunday. However, even if it doesn’t, they’re going up against a powerhouse that can easily put up 30 points in their sleep.

Depending on the sportsbook, this spread opened between 8 and 10.5 points in favor of the Chiefs. Since then, most of the online sportsbooks have a current spread of KC by 8.5 points. The Over/Under has seen less movement with online betting sites than the spread. Originally, the line opened at 52 points, but it has come down slightly to 51.5 total points.

Free NFL Spread Bet and Game Prediction: Chiefs -8.5

I really don’t see how the Browns have a chance in this game. The team is a disaster off the field and will turn to a new head coach and OC for the rest of the season. Greg Williams has been a head coach before, but he doesn’t instill confidence in pundits or oddsmakers.

This game will come down to whenever the Chiefs decide to take their foot off of the gas pedal. So, the only question is whether or not they will score 40 or more points. For the season, KC averages 36.3 ppg and 430.6 total ypg. The Chiefs offense is #3 in total ypg, #4 in passing ypg, and #1 in scoring per game. They have so many weapons, the Browns won’t be able to cover them all.

Cleveland’s defense gives up 428.8 ypg and 26.3 ppg. Furthermore, they allow 289.9 passing ypg and have one of the worst run defenses in the league at 138.9 rushing ypg. Not only do I expect Mahomes to throw for 300+ yards and 4 TDs, I also expect Hunt to rush for more than 100 yards and a TD. In fact, I don’t see how this game is anything other than a KC massacre of the Browns.

The Browns offense will have their best chance to put up big numbers since they played the Raiders in Week 4 and lost in OT. In that game, Cleveland put up 42 points. This week, they go up against a terrible Chiefs defense, which is one of the worst in the NFL. The Chiefs give up 451.5 total ypg, 323.9 passing ypg, and 127.6 rushing ypg. These numbers are atrocious, but that doesn’t mean Cleveland will be able to take advantage of a bad defense.

I see this game being one where the Chiefs score touchdowns, while the Browns score field goals. Cleveland might get some garbage time points to close the gap, but this is going to be a blowout.

KC is 7-1 ATS this year, 14-6 ATS in their last 20 road games, 4-1 ATS as a favorite this year, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 AFC games, and 6-1 ATS on grass this year. The Browns are 0-12 SU and 3-9 ATS following a divisional game, 1-12 and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games from Weeks 5 through 9, 1-10 SU and 2-8 ATS against teams with winning records, 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games during November, and 9-18 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.

The easy bet is the Chiefs moneyline (-415), but there really is no value with odds that high. The Over/Under is hit or miss considering that Cleveland may score 10 points or they may score 20 points against that Chiefs defense. And, we know that the Chiefs will score over 35 in this game.

The smart bet is the KC spread of -8.5 in this one. Kansas City was a point or two away from remaining undefeated on the year ATS. As it stands, they are still 7-1 ATS on the year. As one of the best teams in the NFL, KC should win this game easily and by at least two touchdowns.

Chiefs vs Browns Betting Recap:

  • Oddsmaker: BetOnline
  • Money lines: Chiefs (-415) and Browns (+345)
  • Spread: Chiefs -8.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under: 51.5 total points (-110)
  • Prediction: Chiefs 38 – Browns 23
Pick: Chiefs -8.5
-105

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