Lions vs Bears – NFL Pick for November 19th
I’m slowly overcoming a brutal 2017 NFL picks run. I got off to a dreadful 1-5 start, but have recovered and over my last five weeks have found my way to a 3-2 run.
I’m still just 4-7 on the year, but I got another win with the Vikings taking down the Redskins last week and will be eyeing my third straight win in week 11.
That should come in the form of the Detroit Lions getting a huge NFC North road win over a Chicago Bears team that is probably about to mail their season in.
Chicago let a winnable game against the Green Bay Packers slip through their fingers last week and are now stuck at the bottom of the division at 3-6. The Bears will need a magical run to finish .500 for the year, let alone threaten for a playoff spot in the loaded NFC.
The Lions, meanwhile, scored a big win over the Cleveland Browns last week and have ridden a nice two-game winning streak to a 5-4 record. With a massive week 12 clash against the first place Minnesota Vikings on the horizon, the Lions can’t afford to overlook the Bears.
There isn’t enough value in taking the Bears at +124 at BetOnline. This game is tightly priced, which actually gets me on the mildly favored Lions, more than anything else. This Total is super tricky, too, so all roads lead to Detroit for me.
Matthew Stafford has been on fire lately and brings the league’s 6th best passing game to town. Stafford is often tough to trust on the road, but he shredded the Packers two weeks ago and has played a big hand in Detroit being surprisingly solid (3-1) on the road this year.
Needless to say, Chicago’s main objective will be stopping Stafford.
The big problem all year for the Lions has been a sheepish rushing attack (29th in the NFL). That probably could remain an issue in this one, but Ty Montgomery busted a long score for the Packers on the ground last week and Chicago comes into week 11 ranking just 15th against the run.
Offensively, I’m not enamored with the Lions, but I’m also not too worried they’ll run into severe roadblocks. Chicago’s defense has been steady, but it hasn’t exactly been elite. The Bears do enter the new week ranked 10th against the pass, but they gave up some big plays to a shaky Green Bay passing attack so that perhaps should be taken with a grain of salt.
Ultimately, the Lions will be fine enough on offense and should be put in some nice spots thanks to their defense. Detroit doesn’t have an elite defense, either, but it’s an advantageous one that ranks 4th in interceptions.
That’s troubling for rookie passer Mitchell Trubisky, who really hasn’t consistently carried the offense yet. He flashed signs of being able to do that last week against the Packers, but given Green Bay’s sorry defense, that’s not saying much.
Trubisky should find life to be more difficult this week, as Detroit ranks 11th against the run. They haven’t had much success at stopping seasoned passers through the air, but that isn’t a label we can apply to Trubisky.
In other words, there is a strong chance Jordan Howard and Chicago’s ground game struggle out of the gates, which could quickly put pressure on the Bears’ weak passing game.
This bet comes down to two things; which quarterback do you trust and which team has more to gain/lose this week. The Lions can move to 6-4 and set up a huge showdown with Minnesota (who they’ve already beaten), while Stafford obviously trumps Trubisky.
Detroit looks like the pick here and I love the value at -144 at BetOnline, too.