NFL bettors get some solid value in week six when the Detroit Lions and New Orleans Saints combine for what could be the most explosive game of the week.
We’ve been disappointed in the past, to be sure. The New England Patriots and Tampa Bay Buccaneers fell painfully short of expectations just a week ago, while this exact matchup delivered a gut-punch in 2016.
That shouldn’t have us shying away in week six, however, when the Lions and Saints enter with a palatable Total of 51 and aren’t likely to leave us hanging. The best part? There isn’t a whole lot of reason to roll with the Under and at Bovada no matter which side we take we get solid value (-110).
Both teams are going to be hungry for a win. The Saints got off to a rocky start before winning two straight going into their bye week. The team then shipped off beleaguered running back Adrian Peterson in a trade.
Like a snake shedding its skin, the Saints have the look and feel of a new, confident bunch. At home against a Lions team that is reeling with two consecutive losses and boasts a banged-up Matthew Stafford under center, it’s not crazy to like the Saints.
Detroit isn’t some spare team, though. They started the season off at 3-0 and gave the Atlanta Falcons a strong fight in week four. Some would suggest they are the true winners of that contest, too.
The Lions really only looked bad in a loss to the Panthers a week ago, yet they still rallied (as they tend to do) and almost pulled off the upset at home.
Getting a tough win on the road will be more difficult, but with the Lions loaded offensively and trying to avoid a three-game skid, it’s safe to assume both teams will be ready to rock in this one.
Does that mean we should take a side or attack the Total? Let’s dig a little deeper to find our stance for this week six NFL battle:
The status of Stafford is huge for this game. If he’s out, the Lions turn to Jake Rudock (gulp*) and they can kiss this spread or a straight-up upset goodbye.
Fortunately, the reports have been encouraging in regards to Stafford’s ankle and hamstring ailments and he’s expected to suit up:
Even a 75% healthy Stafford is a win in this matchup. Few quarterbacks are at the level of “gamer” that Stafford has reached, as he has routinely carried his team. He’s really had the Lions focused in this particular matchup, too, as Detroit has claimed three straight victories in this series.
The Saints haven’t been able to solve the Lions lately, but the good news is both teams typically put up a lot of points. The last meeting in 2016 only totaled 41 points in an easy 28-13 win for the Lions, but the game before that produced a whopping 62 points.
This series has been pretty explosive, to say the least. When you’re featuring top-notch passers like Brees and Stafford and putting them on turf with speedy weapons, that only makes sense.
While not every meeting has topped this week’s 51 Total, most have at least come close. The 2016 matchup was the only one in the last seven showdowns that didn’t hit on at least 47 total points.
During that stretch, the Saints and Lions have topped this Total three different times. With both offenses looking strong overall and neither defense necessarily looking elite, we should expect fireworks again in week six.
But don’t take our word for it. New Orleans remains as bad as ever defensively, while both the Saints and Lions find themselves in the bottom 5 in the NFL at defending the pass.
These types of games are always at risk of disappointing, but in NFL betting we need to follow the trends and the logic whenever it makes sense. In week six few things make as much sense as this.
The Saints shouldn’t be able to stop the Lions and the Lions shouldn’t be able to stop the Saints. We’re looking at a fairly conservative 28-24 Saints win right now and that would get us a push either way, but it would at least get us over our Total.
Some of the top football betting sites currently have this wager locked due to the Stafford injury. The second it opens up and/or we get even more wiggle room with this Total, we need to attack it. After all, if Stafford is a lock to play, some sites are sure to up the Total.
If it gets too much higher, we’re running into risk. We love it where it is right now at Bovada and if we can get this bet at 51 or lower, we’re taking it.