NCAAF Heavyweight Showdown: LSU vs Alabama for No. 1 Rank and Heisman

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On Saturday, November 9th, college football’s top two ranked teams will face off in a heavyweight gridiron battle. The game will not only determine the SEC West’s fate, but it will also have a significant impact on the College Football Playoffs and the Heisman Trophy.

The No. 1 ranked LSU Tigers look to snap Alabama’s eight-game winning streak in this head to head rivalry. The No. 2 ranked Crimson Tide wants to regain their spot as the top-ranked team in NCAAF and remind the nation why they’re the best.

This game is so big that President Donald Trump plans on attending. Kickoff inside Bryant-Denny Stadium is at 3:30 PM ET.

LSU vs Alabama Betting Preview

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Money Lines Totals
LSU Tigers +6 (-105) +185 Over 65 (-110)
Alabama Crimson Tide -6 (-115) -215 Under 65 (-110)

LSU and Alabama have played against each other 83 times dating back to 1895. The Crimson Tide leads this rivalry with a record of 53-25-5. They’ve also won eight straight games against LSU dating back to the 2012 BCS championship game.

The Nick Saban led Crimson Tide have gone 10-3 against LSU under his command. Before joining Alabama, Nick Saban was 4-1 against the Crimson Tide when he was the former LSU head coach from 2000-2004. Alabama has outscored LSU 63 to 10 over the last three seasons, including a 29-0 beatdown in 2018.

Head to Head Betting Trends

In the last 10 head to head meetings:

  • Alabama Crimson Tide is 5-4-1 ATS.
  • The Under is 7-0-3 in the last 10 games.
  • LSU is 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games against Alabama.

LSU Tigers Betting Trends

  • LSU is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 overall games.
  • LSU is 9-1 SU in their last 10 overall games.
  • The Tigers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games.
  • LSU is 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 SEC games.
  • LSU us 6-2 ATS as an underdog.
  • The Tigers are 3-0 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.

Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Trends

  • Alabama is 10-0 SU in their last 10 home games.
  • The Crimson Tide are 4-1-1 in their last six Week 11 games.
  • Alabama is 7-1 SU, but 4-4 ATS in their last eight November games.
  • Alabama is 16-2 SU and 9-9 ATS against winning teams.
  • The Crimson Tide are 22-1 SU and 11-12 ATS versus the SEC.

Free SEC Betting Prediction: Under 65 points (-110)

If you are a bit surprised at the Over/Under of 65 total points for this matchup, then look no further than the averages that these offenses are accumulating per game. LSU is putting up 46.8 ppg and Alabama is slightly higher at 48.6 ppg. Furthermore, Alabama is averaging 47.2 ppg in SEC play while LSU is averaging 41.7 ppg.

Alabama averages 506.6 total ypg, including 338.6 passing ypg and 168 rushing ypg. LSU is slightly better with 535.9 total ypg, 377.6 passing ypg, and 158.3 rushing ypg. These totals are very impressive and rank both offenses near the top in the nation.

After looking at those impressive stats, it’s easy to see why college football betting sites have placed this total so high. The O/U opened at 63 points and has climbed to this current total of 65 points.

So, you must be wondering why I’m saying go with the Under.

Well, it’s pretty simple, look at their recent head to head numbers. In their last 10 head to head meetings, LSU has averaged 10 ppg and Alabama has averaged 22 ppg. They hadn’t scored a combined total of 65 points or more since 2007 when LSU defeated Alabama 41 to 35.

The Under has gone 4-1 or 4-0-1, depending on the online betting site, in the last five head to head meetings. Additionally, the Under is 8-4 in Alabama’s last 12 games played in November. The Under is 13-6 in LSU’s last 19 games during November.

On the season, LSU is allowing just 20 ppg and Alabama is giving up 15.3 ppg. In SEC play, LSU allows 24.7 ppg and Alabama gives up 20.4 ppg. Either way, these two teams combine to give up far less than 65 total points.

Running the Ball Will Be Tough

LSU and Alabama are two of the stingiest run defenses in the nation as the Tigers allow just 97.9 ypg and Alabama allows 127.4 ypg. That means we will most likely see a dual between the quarterbacks, which is why this game will have an impact on the Heisman Trophy race.

Although many pundits and fans want to look at both offenses, the key for this matchup is the defenses. I think the score will be close and push it into the upper 50’s, but I don’t see these two teams combining for over 65 points.

There’s too much talent on the defensive side of the ball, and this is too big of a game for the defenses to allow a shootout. Take the Under 65 total points at -110 odds.

Winner of This Game Will Have the Edge in Heisman Race

Two of the top quarterbacks in the nation will go head to head in a high stakes game that will shape not only the SEC conference and College Football Playoffs but also the sport’s most prestigious award – the Heisman Trophy.

Currently, BetOnline has LSU QB Joe Burrow listed as the odds on favorite to win the Heisman at -120 odds. Oklahoma’s and former Alabama follows him, quarterback Jalen Hurts at +250 and the current Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa at +375 odds.

Not only do online betting sites feel that these QBs are the odds on favorites, but many college football media outlets also share in these sentiments.

Statistically speaking, Joe Burrow has an advantage over Tagovailoa. Burrow has thrown for 2,805 yards, 30 TDs and just four INTs. He’s also rushed for three touchdowns. Tagovailoa has thrown for 2,166 yards, 27 TDs and just two INTs. Tua has only two rushing touchdowns.

With that said, the health of Tua Tagovailoa is still in question as he’s trying to come back from a high ankle sprain that forced Tagovailoa out of the Tennessee game two weeks ago. He had a procedure done on his ankle with the hopes of being back for this huge SEC battle.

Even if he does play, Tua won’t be at 100%. Plus, you have to wonder how much of his NFL future is weighing on the decision to play at less than full health.

Tua’s health is another reason why I believe the combined score will be Under 65 total points. Furthermore, Burrow will have a solid performance against the Crimson Tide which will cement his position as the Heisman favorite and lead LSU to their first victory against Alabama since November 2011.

Take the Under 65 points (-110) and LSU +6 (-105) this weekend against Alabama.
Rick Rockwell

As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site. ...

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