We have a jam-packed MLB schedule going on this Tuesday evening, and we’re going to go back to where we hit a big winner on Friday in San Diego.
I had the D-backs as huge +195 road underdogs in that one with a pair of left-handers going, and that indeed paid off as the road side roughed up Padres left-hander Ryan Weathers en route to a stunning 8-5 victory.
Now, we’ll go right back to Petco Park tonight where we’ll dial up a Marlins vs. Padres MLB Pick and see if we can keep rolling!
Marlins vs. Padres Betting Odds
San Diego Padres
Over 8 (-105)
Under 8 (-115)
The Marlins qualified for the expanded postseason in 2020 even with a run differential well into negative territory, and that luck has turned around on them this season. Until recently the Marlins boasted a positive run differential yet have sat in last place in the NL East for the entire season. Even with their -23 mark at the moment they should be hanging around second in the division, but sit last and 12.5 games out of first.
Despite another losing season, they’ll look for their young pitching to continue to grow as they send 24-year-old left-hander Braxton Garrett to the mound for his sixth start and seventh appearance at the MLB level this season.
Garrett has certainly earned more looks as he’s turned in a 3.58 ERA/4.33 FIP on the season to go along with a 4.33 xFIP and 4.74 SIERA. His walks are a little up with a 4.23 BB/9, however he’s kept home runs in check with a 0.98 HR/9 through 27.2 innings this season.
The 7th overall pick of the 2016 draft has also made 11 starts at Triple-A, turning in a 4.77 ERA/4.05 FIP with a more palatable 2.96 BB/9 in that time.
This is actually his second meeting with the Padres in less than three weeks as he hurled a career-high seven innings of two-run ball with 10 punchouts while earning his first career MLB win in that one back in Miami on July 24. Garrett followed that outing up with five shutout innings and six punchouts over the Mets — also in Miami — although he didn’t factor into the decision there.
It’s been a solid start to the young lefty’s career and we’ll see if he can keep up the reliable work in a road matchup tonight.
The Marlins were carried to the postseason thanks to their excellent young pitching last season and they were once again expected to be a light-hitting team again this time around, and they’ve (unfortunately) lived up to that expectation.
They’ll enter this one ranked 28th with a .298 wOBA on the season while their light-hitting ways show up by way of a .140 ISO that checks in at 29th league wide. They’ll take on a right-handed starter in this one, so we’ll note that they sit tied for 23rd with a .299 wOBA versus lefties with a .142 ISO as well, so there certainly hasn’t been a marked difference between their work versus lefties and righties this season.
They also haven’t hit much on the road, turning in a .295 wOBA that puts them 22nd in the league, although the power has at least played up a little bit to a .151 ISO, although that figure still sits tied for 19th in the league.
Prior to scoring just three runs in last night’s loss to open this series, the Marlins were swept out of Colorado where they scored just 14 runs in three games, good for 4.67 runs per game. While not a horrible total, it’s certainly less than stellar at Coors Field in that thin Denver air.
They’ve now averaged just 3.8 runs per game over their last 10, so they’ll need to get the sticks going tonight in order to avoid their fifth straight defeat.
Another thing the Marlins managed to do en route to a playoff appearance last season was battle through bullpen issues in addition to their less-than-desirable work at the plate. That hasn’t been the case this time around, however.
The club’s front office made an obvious push to improve that bullpen with a flurry of offseason additions, although some of those arms are now pitching elsewhere following the trade deadline. The Marlins enter this one sporting a 3.52 bullpen ERA that checks in at fifth in the league. They’ve managed that figure on the back of a stellar 3.16 walk rate (3rd) and 0.78 HR/9 clip (2nd).
The batted-ball data more or less backs up that home run rate as their 36.9% hard-hit rate is tied for 10th while their 6.7% barrel rate checks in at six in baseball as well.
The group hasn’t been quite as good since the All-Star break with a 3.94 ERA and 1.15 HR/9 but there aren’t going to be too many arguments stemming from those figures, either.
The Padres will ride a three-game winning streak into this one which is coming at a critical time for them.
With Fernando Tatis Jr. on the IL with a shoulder injury, San Diego lost four games in a six-game stretch which tightened up the Wild Card standings as they are now just 3.5 games up on the Reds who easily have the most realistic shot at catching the Friars.
They’ll look to make that four in a row tonight at home where they’ve gone 39-23 on the season behind the right arm of Craig Stammen who will open for just the second time this season.
Stammen has opened once while making 47 relief appearances for the Padres, turning in a 2.71 ERA/3.60 FIP on the season to go along with 9.00 strikeouts per nine and an elite 1.29 BB/9. Stammen’s 55.7% ground-ball rate helps as well, although his 1.29 HR/9 on the season is well up from just 0.75 dingers per nine in 24 appearances last season.
Stammen’s other start came back on June 29 in Cincinnati where he pitched two innings of one-run ball against a dangerous Reds home offense.
Not Missing a Beat
Tatis has been out of the lineup since late July but the Padres have done a good job in scoring runs without a player who was favored to win the NL MVP at the time of his injury.
After scoring eight runs in last night’s series-opening win, the Padres have now met that eight-run total in three of their last seven games, but have also scored at least five runs in six of the seven with an average of 5.86 runs per game during that time. For the season, the club has averaged 4.85 runs per game, so they’ve done a fine job of hitting without their best player of late.
It’s been a steady climb in the right direction for a Padres offense that struggled early. They’ll enter this one tied for ninth with a .322 wOBA on the season, although the power hasn’t met last night’s lofty standard by way of a .165 ISO that sits 16th in baseball.
Against lefties such as Garrett, the Padres have not fared quite as well as they sit tied for 15th with a .316 wOBA off lefties and the power drops to a .151 ISO that’s tied for 23rd. At home, they rank 23th with a .326 wOBA while the power sits back to the same .165 ISO they hold both on the road and at home.
However, we’ll once again keep in mind these stats have Tatis’ MVP-caliber figures baked in, even if they’ve performed well in his absence.
Big Bullpen Battle
While the Marlins’ bullpen has clearly been very good this season, so has that of the Padres and we’ll see plenty of it tonight with the reliever Stammen opening this one.
In fact, no bullpen has been better than this Padres group this season as evidenced by a 2.91 ERA that paces in the league. Their 3.79 FIP and 3.87 xFIP are well above that ERA figure, but it’s tough to find many holes in the numbers.
The team has both walks and home runs in check with a 3.23 BB/9 and 1.01 HR/9 on the season, and their fourth-ranked 6.4% barrel rate helps explain why the home run number is rock-solid.
Tonight is a fine opportunity for this Padres’ bullpen to show their stuff and perhaps help extend that lead for the second Wild Card spot in the NL.
For me, this is going to be a difficult game for the Marlins to not only have to face Stammen and his sub-3.00 ERA to open this one but the remainder of the league’s best bullpen. They don’t hit righties to begin with or on the road, and this venue can certainly be difficult on hitters.
On the flip side, the Padres are mediocre against left-handed pitching which was clearly evident when Garrett pretty much dominated his way through seven innings nearly three weeks ago against them. More recently, they were shut down again in seven innings by another left-hander in Madison Bumgarner on Sunday, that one coming at home in San Diego.
As a recent addition to the GamblingSites.org team, James Peralta has been covering everything about casinos, sports, and laws that are specific to online gambling in Canada. James started writing about sports in 2007 during his first year at U of T Mississauga. ...
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