Mets at Rockies MLB Pick for September 17

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The Rockies were expected to contend for a playoff spot this season, while the Mets were expected to struggle. Both predictions looked as though they could come true in the first half of the season, but things have swung in the opposite direction ever since. Now, the Rockies are the team playing out the string, while the Mets are battling furiously for a Wild Card spot in the National League.

New York needs to win as many games as they can from here on out, while Colorado is left to play spoiler. The Rockies did just that on Monday night, as they walloped Steven Matz and company on their way to a comfortable 9-4 win. Trevor Story and Ian Desmond both homered off of Matz for Colorado, while the Mets struggled to do much damage against Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela.

New York will look to get back on track on Tuesday night when they send newcomer Marcus Stroman to the mound. Stroman, who came over from the Blue Jays in July, will be opposed by Rockies right-hander Tim Melville. On baseball betting sites, The Mets are -145 favorites on the moneyline in a game with a massive 13 ½ implied run total.

Betting Data Mets Rockies
2019 Straight-Up 77-73 66-85
2019 Home 43-31 40-36
2019 Away 34-42 26-49
2019 ATR 75-75 67-84
2019 ATR Home 34-40 29-47
2019 ATR Away 41-35 38-37
2019 O/U 71-64-15 74-71-6
2019 O/U Home 33-34-7 40-34-2
2019 O/U Away 38-30-8 34-37-4

Stroman’s Up-and-Down Run

Stroman has made eight starts in a Mets uniform since coming over from Toronto. The Medford, NY, native has gone 2-2 with a 4.50 ERA since donning the New York uniform for the first time. He has looked good through 3 starts in September, though, as he has posted a 3.86 ERA across three games against the Phillies (twice) and Diamondbacks.

Stroman isn’t a big strikeout pitcher, which could prove to be problematic tonight in the best hitter’s park in baseball. The ball flies at Coors Field, so Stroman will need to have his ground ball stuff working if he plans to tame the Rockies’ lineup. Colorado isn’t the most imposing offense in the world, but they’re more daunting whenever they’re taking their hacks in their hitter-friendly home ballpark.

Stroman has a middling 20.2 percent strikeout rate on the season as a whole along with a ground ball rate nearing 54 percent. Left-handed hitters have given him some issues. If he can keep Charlie Blackmon, Daniel Murphy and Ryan McMahon in the ballpark, he should be fine tonight. You can get away with ground balls at Coors Field. Fly balls tend to lead to more trouble.

Melville’s Brief Tenure

Tim Melville has made five starts for the Rockies this season after spending most of the year at Triple-A. He has bounced around the minors for years, and this is his first extended stay at the big league level. The 29-year-old has a 5.16 ERA alongside a 5.34 SIERA, and pitching at Coors Field is a tall task for any starter.

Melville has a low strikeout rate south of 20 percent, and his ground ball rate (35.8 percent) is significantly lower than Stroman’s. The right-hander has benefited from some good fortune through his first handful of starts in a Colorado uniform, but he’s obviously in quite the problematic spot tonight.

The Mets are a low-strikeout offense that wields plenty of power. New York’s projected lineup has a team ISO of .196 against right-handed pitching with a .348 wOBA. Pete Alonso (.387 wOBA), Michael Conforto (.384), Jeff McNeil (.392), Robinson Cano (.349) and J.D. Davis (.371) have smoked right-handed pitching all season long. Guys like Todd Frazier, Brandon Nimmo and Amed Rosario don’t make for easy outs, either.

The Mets are projected to score more than seven runs tonight, which is the highest implied run total for any of the 30 teams in action.

The Pick

I like the Mets here. Stroman’s skill set isn’t perfectly designed to tame the elements of pitching at altitude in Denver, but I like his chances of taming the Rockies more than I do Melville’s chances of stifling the Mets. Games in this ballpark are generally difficult to predict thanks to the wildness of the games, but the Mets with Stroman on the mound look like a pretty strong bet to pick up a win.

The Mets are a decent play at -145 on the moneyline, but I’m confident that they can cover the runline at more favorable +100 odds, as well. Take the better odds that come with New York on the runline.

Taylor Smith

Taylor Smith has been a staff writer with since early 2017. Taylor is primarily a sports writer, though he will occasionally dabble in other things like politics and entertainment betting. His primary specialties are writing about the NBA, Major League Baseball, NFL and domestic and international soccer. Fringe sports like golf and horse racing aren’t exactly his cup of tea, bu ...

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