Mets vs Phillies MLB Pick for Sunday, October 1st

by Jason Armstrong
on October 1, 2017

Well baseball fans, we made it! Today marks the final day of the regular season. All games will start at roughly 12:00 PM PST. Unfortunately, there isn’t anything to really play for as yesterday’s action wrapped up any drama that was remaining. We now know who is playing and where for the first round of the playoffs. I will break down all the playoff matchups real quick below and give you one last regular season winner to end the season with!

In the American League, the chase for the number one seed made it all the way to game 161 before the Cleveland Indians finally put that slot on lockdown. The Indians will have home field advantage throughout the American League playoffs and will face the winner of the wild-card game. The wild card game will feature the New York Yankees hosting the Minnesota Twins for the rights to move on and face Cleveland. On the other side of the American League bracket the East Division champion, the Boston Red Sox will be heading to Houston to face the West Division champion Astros.

New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Total: 9

The National League number one seed has been locked down for seemingly months and even though they imploded at the end, the Los Angeles Dodgers held on to the number one overall seed. They will face the winner of the N.L. wild-card game between the home team Arizona Diamondbacks and the visiting Colorado Rockies. The East Division champions, the Washington Nationals, will host the Central Division, and defending World Series Champion, Chicago Cubs.

Over the course of the last several weeks, I have been very consistently betting on games that feature at least one team with something to play for. I hate taking a matchup between two squads that couldn’t care less about winning. Just too many things can happen that are hard to predict when nobody cares who actually wins the game. Today is the one rare exception in the season where the contending teams are the ones that don’t care. All the seeding is now locked up, and almost every playoff team will be resting their starters today. Which makes those games very hard to pick as you just don’t know much about those lineups. So, I looked up and down the schedule and found a little gem where I think one team, and in particular, one player, that is going to be giving his all today and I decided to jump on it.

The New York Mets were bad this year. It wasn’t really their fault as they got absolutely decimated by injuries and couldn’t stay healthy all season long. The biggest injury of them all? Starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard (1-2 3.18 ERA). The young fireballer took rookie of the year in his first season and made the N.L All-Star team in his second, and is one of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball. Syndergaard missed basically the entire season this year with an injury before returning last week for a cameo one-inning start. Tonight, the Mets said Syndergaard is going to pitch longer, probably in the four-inning range, but seeing that he is getting six months off after this one it wouldn’t surprise me to see this stretched out a bit.

It is a soft-landing spot for Thor as Philly has been one of the worst teams in the league this year and this lineup is full of unproven youngsters. It is a great opportunity to end the season on a high note in New York, and if Thor looks anything like his normal self, I expect him to rip through this soft hitting lineup today.

The Phillies will counter with right-handed rookie, Nick Pivetta (7-10 6.26 ERA). Pivetta has looked like most promising rookies do, sometimes he is great, other times he can’t record an out. In his last two starts, he has gone 12 innings and given up only two earned runs. In the two starts before that? 10 innings and thirteen earned runs. It’s been a bit of a roller coaster for Pivetta this season. Clearly not the type of pitcher that you want to back with cash.

Really late games like this are tough to bet. We have been on fire over the last ten days but with a limited number of games to choose from its hard to find rock-solid value. If you told me Syndergaard was going to pitch a normal start and not be on a pitch count? I would think this line would be -200 or more. Instead, he is only going four innings, and he is getting dog money against a rookie? Yeah, that doesn’t smell right to me. How long is a normal Thor start? Six innings? Seven maybe? So, the difference between being a huge favorite and an underdog is two innings? Well, I think that logic doesn’t make any sense and unless Aaron Nola is on the mound, this Phillies team shouldn’t be favorites against anybody. Give me the Mets in game 162 as small underdogs!

The Bet: Mets +110
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