Miami Heat at Detroit Pistons NBA Odds, Prediction, and Pick for November 23

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miami heat vs. detroit pistons

We have just four games on the NBA schedule for Tuesday before Wednesday’s boffo 13-gamer. While your betting options are limited this evening, tomorrow looks like one of the busiest days we’ll have all season. Even with a limited slate, though, we’ve got some decent games on the schedule.

The contest between the Heat and Pistons isn’t necessarily expected to be one of them. BetOnline has Miami favored in this one by 9.5 points on the road. The Heat come into this one at 11-6 on the year, which is tied with the Wizards for the third-best record in the Eastern Conference. Detroit, meanwhile, is just 4-12 and a couple of games clear of Orlando for the worst mark in the conference. Miami is just 5-5 over their last 10 games, while Detroit is 3-7 in the same span.

Heat vs. Pistons Betting Odds

Teams Point Spread Moneyline Total
Miami Heat -9.5(-110) -425 Over 207 points (-110)
Detroit Pistons +9.5 (-110) +345 Under 207 points (-110)

Heat

Miami is almost fully healthy for this game. Markieff Morris is still out with the neck injury he suffered after he was shoved to the ground by Nikola Jokic a couple of weeks ago. Sharpshooter Duncan Robinson is listed as questionable for tonight after suffering a knee injury in Miami’s last game against Washington.

The offseason additions of Kyle Lowry and PJ Tucker already look like smart moves. The arrival of Lowry means Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo no longer have to worry too much about playing distributing roles offensively. Butler leads the team in scoring at 25.1 points per game on 15.9 shot attempts per game. He averaged just 14.2 attempts last season when he was tasked more with initiating Miami’s offense. Adebayo is quietly contributing 19.4 points and 10.6 rebounds per game while providing his standard high-energy play up front.

Frankly, there’s no reason to believe Adebayo can’t feast in this spot tonight. The Pistons are incredibly shorthanded in this one with both of their primary centers unavailable. Isaiah Stewart was suspended for a couple of games after getting into a kerfuffle with LeBron James on Sunday night. Kelly Olynyk is out indefinitely with a knee injury. So, instead of dealing with Stewart’s physicality, Adebayo will be going up against the likes of Trey Lyles and rookie Luka Garza in the middle.

The Heat have also gotten stellar play out of Tyler Herro, who looks like an early frontrunner to win Most Improved Player and Sixth Man of the Year. Herro, who emerged as an unexpected star during Miami’s run to the 2020 Finals in the bubble, struggled last year in his sophomore campaign. However, it’s clear that he worked quite a bit on his game over the summer. Herro actually has the second-highest usage rate on the team behind Butler, and he’s averaging a career-best 21.6 points per game in about 33 minutes per game off the bench.

The Heat come into this game ranked fifth in the NBA in offensive efficiency, scoring an average of 109.8 points per 100 possessions. They were just 17th in that category a season ago. You can credit the addition of Lowry and the emergence of Herro with their massive improvement in that regard so far this season. Miami has also improved to sixth in defensive rating, yielding just 102.5 points per 100 possessions.

Pistons

The Pistons won’t win many games this season, but that’s hardly much of a surprise. This team wound up with the No. 1 overall pick in the draft last year, which they wisely used to nab Cade Cunningham out of Oklahoma State. Cunningham got off to a bit of a slow start, but he has really rounded into form of late. The rookie posted his first NBA triple-double in Sunday’s loss to the Lakers, finishing with 13 points, 12 rebounds, and 10 assists in 38 minutes of action.

Through his first 11 NBA appearances, Cunningham is averaging 14.1 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 4.6 assists in about 32 minutes a night. Marksmanship has been an issue for him, as he’s shooting just 35 percent from the field and 25 percent from three-point range early on. Cunningham was already playing as the Pistons’ de facto point guard, a role that’ll be solidified again tonight when the team plays its second straight game without the injured Killian Hayes.

Veteran Cory Joseph started and logged 39 minutes on Sunday in Hayes’ place. Jerami Grant paced the Pistons with 36 points in that one, while Frank Jackson and Hamidou Diallo played big roles off the bench. Detroit is going to have a very difficult time keeping Adebayo under wraps with their shorthanded frontcourt. Lyles is undersized to play the center position, while Garza is a rookie with minimal NBA experience. Asking either of them to capably defend one of the most unique offensive centers in the league is quite a hefty order.

The Pistons have an incredibly young roster, so it’s not at all shocking to see that they rank near the bottom of the league in most statistical categories. Relying so heavily on first- and second-year pros certainly has its drawbacks. Detroit is mustering just 98.5 points per 100 possessions. Only the Thunder and Rockets have been worse on that end of the floor. The Pistons’ defensive rating, which ranks 22nd, is a bit more respectable.

Heat vs. Pistons NBA Pick

Regardless of the status of Duncan Robinson, all signs point to a potential blowout here. The Pistons aren’t in the same stratosphere as the Heat from a talent perspective, and Detroit happens to be the more shorthanded team, as well. The Heat’s point differential of plus-7.4 is the best mark in the Eastern Conference, while the Pistons’ minus-8.7 differential is second-worst. Miami has already won nine games this season by at least 10 points. Seven of Detroit’s 12 losses have come by 10 points or more.

Anything can happen in this league, but I’d expect a laugher here if the Heat come into this one ready to play. The Pistons just don’t have the firepower or the manpower to slow down Miami’s offense, while Detroit’s inexperienced offense will struggle to consistently get buckets against one of the best defensive teams in the league. Bet on the Heat to cover the 9.5-point spread here with confidence.

Pick: Heat -9.5
Odds: -109
$100 Could Win You...$190

Heat vs. Pistons Betting Recap:

  • Oddsmaker: BetOnline
  • Moneylines: Heat -425, Pistons +345
  • Point spread: Heat -9.5 (-110), Pistons +9.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: Over 207 points (-110), Under 207 points (-110)
  • Prediction: Heat -9.5 (-110)
Taylor Smith

Taylor Smith has been a staff writer with GamblingSites.org since early 2017. Taylor is primarily a sports writer, though he will occasionally dabble in other things like politics and entertainment betting. His primary specialties are writing about the NBA, Major League Baseball, NFL and domestic and international soccer. Fringe sports like golf and horse racing aren’t exactly his cup of tea, bu ...

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