Michigan State vs Maryland Big 10 Odds, Pick and Prediction

by Rick Rockwell
on November 1, 2018
4

Minute Read

In this Big 10 matchup, we have two teams with identical 5-3 records. Unfortunately, the Michigan State Spartans have disappointed many fans and pundits with this record, while the Maryland Terrapins have been a pleasant surprise with 5 wins so far. Both teams are looking to get that important 6th win on the season and become bowl eligible. Will the Spartans play to their potential or will the Terrapins pull off another surprise? Kickoff inside Maryland Stadium is at 12 PM ET.

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Spartans vs Terrapins Live Odds and Betting History

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline, 5Dimes:

Betting Data Michigan State Spartans Maryland Terrapins
Current S/U record 5-3 5-3
2018 Home 3-2 4-1
2018 Away 2-1 1-2
2018 ATS 3-5 5-3
2018 ATS Home 1-4 4-1
2018 ATS Away 2-1 1-2
2018 O/U 4-4 4-4
2018 O/U Home 3-2 3-2
2018 O/U Away 1-2 1-2

Spartans vs Terrapins Big 10 Game Preview

Saturday’s game marks the 10th time these two programs have played against each other. Currently, Michigan State holds a 7-2 advantage over Maryland. MSU defeated Maryland last year, but lost two years ago at College Park, MD.

Michigan State (5-3, 3-2 Big 10) is coming off a solid 23-13 victory over the Purdue Boilermakers who were one game removed from dominating Ohio State. The Spartans ended Purdue’s 4 game winning streak and look to prevent the Terrapins from building their own winning streak. Will we see the rugged Spartans this weekend or will we see the inconsistent MSU team that lost to NW and ASU on the year?

Maryland (5-3, 3-2 Big 10) destroyed Illinois last weekend by a score of 63-33. Maryland tallied over 700 yards on offense and hope to keep that momentum going this weekend. The Terrapins look to match MSU’s physical play with their own toughness at home. On the season, Maryland is 4-1 at home. Will the Terrapins improve to 5-1 at home this year and get their biggest win of the season?

For the majority of sportsbooks, the spread opened with Michigan State favored by 3 points. However, most betting sites saw the spread drop as low as 1 point in favor of MSU before climbing back up to the current line of -2 for the Spartans. The Over/Under saw a disparity in opening numbers with most online sportsbooks. Opening total was anywhere from 44 to 47 points. Currently, the spread sits at 46 total points with most sites.

Free NCAAF Big 10 Bet and Game Prediction: Spartans -140

I really am surprised with the play of both teams up to this point. Nobody thought Maryland would be this good and nobody really thought Michigan State would be this bad. Despite sitting at 5-3, the Spartans have disappointed on the season. That disappointment starts with losing to Arizona State in Week 2 and then sandwiching a victory over PSU between losses to Michigan and Northwestern.

Furthermore, MSU has been a disappointment on offense this year as they’re only scoring 23.4 ppg and averaging 360.9 total yards per game. The MSU rushing attack has been abysmal as they’re only averaging 107.6 ypg. Even QB Brian Lewerke has been disappointing this year as he has only 8 TD throws and 7 interceptions. If it weren’t for MSU’s defense, this squad could be a 1 or 2 win team this year.

MSU’s defense is once again one of the strongest units in the Big 10. MSU allows 353.3 total ypg and 21 ppg. Their weakness is in the pass game as they allow 275.9 ypg. However, that’s also in part due to having such a strong run defense that allows only 77.4 ypg.

Maryland comes into this matchup averaging 31.6 ppg and 377.6 total ypg. Their strength is in running the ball as they average 246.3 ypg. Defensively, MD has shown potential to be a tough unit. They allow 337.8 total ypg and 24.5 ppg.

Although the spread is low, I feel more confident in taking the Michigan State moneyline over covering points. As a favorite, MSU is 8-14 ATS, but 13-9 SU. Furthermore, they are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games and 4-1 SU in their last 5 road games. However, MSU is 3-5 ATS on the year.

Maryland is 1-7 SU in their last 8 November games, 0-7 SU and 0-7 ATS coming off a Big 10 win, 1-7 SU in their last 8 games during Weeks 10 through 13, and 8-15 SU in their last 23 Big 10 games.

The reason I believe MSU will win this game is their defense. If you look at MD’s resume this year, they have lost to the tougher teams in the conference. MD lost to Iowa two weeks ago and Michigan four weeks ago. In those two losses, MD was outscored 65-21. MSU has a defense comparable to Iowa and Michigan, which should give Maryland problems on Saturday.

Furthermore, MSU’s rush defense will shut down MD’s explosive running game just like Iowa did two weeks ago. In that game, Iowa held MD to under 100 rushing yards. I believe MSU will hold MD to half of their season average on the ground and force the Terrapins to throw the ball. For the year, MD only averages 131.4 passing ypg and that won’t be enough to defeat the Spartans on Saturday.

Spartans vs Terrapins Betting Recap:

  • Oddsmaker: BetOnline
  • Money lines: Spartans (-140) and Terrapins (+120)
  • Spread: Michigan State -2 (-117)
  • Over/Under: 46 total points (-115)
  • Prediction: MSU 27 – MD 20
Pick: Spartans SU
-140

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