MLB Betting Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres

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Diamondbacks vs. Padres
Diamondbacks at Padres Pick: Diamondbacks (+195)
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It’s a busy MLB schedule on this Friday evening with an afternoon matchup between the White Sox and Cubs followed by a slate of 14 nightcap contests.

We’ll dive into those evening games with this D-backs vs. Padres MLB Pick from San Diego!

D-backs vs. Padres Betting Odds

Odds Arizona Diamondbacks San Diego Padres
Moneyline Odds +195 -214
Runline Odds +1.5 (-112) -1.5 (-108)
Over/Under Odds Over 8.5 (-120) Under 8.5 (+100)


It might end up being a long summer for an Arizona Diamondbacks team that sits dead last in all of baseball with both a 34-76 record but also a -175 run differential as they get set to take on the Padres who sit a cool 28 games ahead of them in the NL West standings.

They’ll turn to left-hander Caleb Smith for this one tonight as the 30-year-old makes his 13 start and 31st appearance of the season as he continues to work as a starter out of that D-backs rotation.

While Smith was an effective reliever for the club in turning in a 2.70 ERA across 30 innings out of the bullpen, he’s also been touched up for a 6.31 ERA across 55.2 frames out of the rotation. It would appear that his stater’s ERA is more or less deserved as per his 5.93 FIP, 5.35 xFIP and 2.10 HR/9 as a starter this season.

He’s also struggled on the road in general. Smith owns a 5.80 ERA/6.13 FIP on the road this season where he’s allowed a whopping 2.52 HR/9 compared to just 0.90 HR/9 at home this season. For whatever reason, his K-rate jumps all the way to a big-time 12.11 K/9 on the road, but the overwhelming majority of his numbers are far superior at home.

It’s interesting that his work out of the D-backs rotation to start was actually good. He allowed two runs or fewer in five of his first six starts, but has allowed at least five runs in four of his last five with the real damage coming in two outings against the Dodgers in which he yielded 14 runs across 2.2 innings of work. That’s mostly where the ugly ERA figures came from.

Still, he’s certainly been hit hard in general of late.

Loving Lefties

It’s largely been a dismal season at the plate for these D-backs, but they’ve at least found some success against left-handed pitching which is what they’ll face to at least start this one tonight.

Overall, the D-backs rank 28th with an even .300 wOBA on the season while their power output also checks in at 28th with a .142 ISO. They’ve also scuffled to score on the road where they share 26th with the Chicago Cubs while sporting a .287 wOBA with their power dropping ever so slightly to a .140 ISO.

That said, they’ve at least been at their best against left-handed pitching. Against southpaws this season, the D-backs are tied for 12th with a .320 wOBA while the power ramps up to a .167 ISO that checks in at a share of 17th alongside the Giants and Indians.

Predictably, the offense has been fairly quiet of late. Arizona has scored just eight runs over their last three games after hanging eight on the Giants on Monday. They’ve scored more than four runs just twice over their last 10 games and have even scored just four runs over their last two games against a left-handed starter.

It’s going to be a long couple of months for the D-backs.

Beleaguered Bullpen

This D-backs bullpen has certainly done its part in contributing to the club’s season-long woes.

That group will enter play tonight ranked dead last with a 5.49 bullpen ERA while their 4.90 FIP is also the worst mark in the league. Walks haven’t even been an issue but the home run ball has by way of a 1.47 HR/9 that stands as the second-worst mark in the league ahead of only the Reds (1.55).

The batted-ball data isn’t quite as bad but the hard-hit and barrel rates are still in the league’s bottom-10.

Since the All-Star break, the bullpen has struggled to a 5.67 ERA, but their 4.55 FIP and 4.46 xFIP in that time isn’t nearly as bad. Still, we are definitely dealing with one of the worst, if not the worst bullpen in baseball.


The Padres are fading a little but in the NL West race as they’re now 7.5 games back of the first-place Giants and need to get some wins together if they’re to remain in the second Wild Card spot while superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. sits on the IL likely into the middle of the month.

They’ll counter Caleb Smith with a left-hander of their own in the form of rookie Ryan Weathers.

Like Smith, Weather has worked as both a reliever and starter as tonight marks his 14th start and 20th appearance of the season.

Just 21 years of age, Weathers sporting a 3.65 ERA on the season, but it would appear he’s been quite fortunate to hold such a strong figure as he also owns a 5.08 FIP, 5.42 xERA, 4.85 xFIP and 4.90 SIERA. He doesn’t miss many bats with a 6.48 K/9 on the season and he too has dealt with home run issues by way of a 1.49 HR/9 clip.

A couple of things don’t bode well for him tonight. For one, like Smith, he’s been far better as a reliever this season as he owns a 1.80 ERA out of the bullpen, but a 4.18 mark as a starter. He also sports a 5.43 FIP/5.12 xFIP as a starter with a tiny 1.71 K/BB ratio, so he may have some trouble tonight.

Furthermore, he’s also struggled at home where he’s posted a 4.89 ERA/5.53 FIP and 1.80 HR/9 clip. Again, the K/BB ratio is small at just 1.90.

Things could get interesting in this one if Weathers’ regression indeed kicks in tonight.

Loathing Lefties

The Padres’ offense has been on a steady rise since a slow start to the season, but this is an offense that’s been notably superior versus right-handed pitching this season

Against righties, the Padres rank 10th with a .323 wOBA and 11th with a .170 ISO. However, they are tied for 20th with a .313 wOBA against left-handed pitching while the power plummets to a .147 ISO which puts them 26th league wide.

That said, they have been good at home where they sit 13th with a .325 wOBA on the season, however the work at home against southpaws has been inferior.

Since Tatis went down with another shoulder injury on July 30, the team has been a little hit and miss at the plate. They’ve scored eight runs twice in the four games he’s missed, but also seven total in the other two games. Add it up and that’s 23 runs in four games, good for a quality 5.75 runs per game. Those games also came against some quality starring pitching, and they actually scored their eight runs in the two games started by lefties in that span.

Presiding ‘Pen

While the team works through some starting pitching issues when it comes to the likes of Chris Paddack and Blake Snell, the bullpen has picked up the slack in a major, major way.

In fact, the Padres own the best bullpen ERA in baseball by way of a 2.91 ERA despite their 3.83 FIP and 3.91 xFIP sitting about a run above that ERA figure. They’ve kept walks and home runs in chec, although the batted-ball data trends towards the middle of the pack.

They’ve been pretty much equally as good since the All-Star break as that group has pitched to a 3.29 ERA/3.37 fIP since the break while their K/BB ratio of 3.75 is the second-best mark in that time next to the Angels (4.12).

D-backs vs. Padres MLB Pick

Pick: Diamondbacks
Odds: +195
$100 Could Win You...$295

You know what? Let’s take a stab at the D-backs here as huge road underdogs.

Yes, I’m aware that the D-backs have been horrible on the road this season where they’ve gone 13-41. Yes, the Padres are also 36-22 at home.

That said, while Caleb Smith’s struggles as a starter have largely been limited to two starts against the Dodgers, Weathers could blow up at any time now and as noted, the D-backs handle themselves well against left-handed pitching, well superior to the Padres’ work off southpaws.

The Padres do hold the massive bullpen advantage, but I see enough value given the D-backs’ offense being superior in this situation, so let’s give them a ride here at huge +195 odds. Head over to BetUS to get started now!

James Peralta

As a recent addition to the team, James Peralta has been covering everything about casinos, sports, and laws that are specific to online gambling in Canada. James started writing about sports in 2007 during his first year at U of T Mississauga. ...

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