MLS Picks and Predictions Sunday May 7th

Soccer Sunday brings us just a pair of MLS games, but they’re good ones. Western Conference leaders Sporting KC will look to keep their strong form going when they head to Minnesota for the first time ever, while Atlanta United will try and rebound from a disappointing defeat when they face NYCFC on the road later in the afternoon.

Here’s what we think will go down.

• Moneyline: KC +115, Minnesota +230, Draw +245
• Betting Value: KC is interesting at +115 on the moneyline.

Sporting KC picked up an impressive win over New York on Wednesday night at home, and now they’ll head out on the road to take on a somewhat resurgent Minnesota United side. KC has still allowed just three goals all season long, which is the best mark in MLS. The Loons have been able to score plenty of goals of their own this season, but this will be their stiffest test to date.

Minnesota has actually outscored KC 13-11 on the season, but the Loons have conceded a whopping 22 goals more than Sporting have thus far. Kansas City began the season with three consecutive draws, but they’ve gone on to win five of six since then. Minnesota is coming off a tough 1-0 defeat against San Jose last week.

While Sporting are just 1-1-2 so far this season on the road, this looks like a good spot for them to pick up another win. MNUFC will test the defensive mettle of KC, but will ultimately come up just short.

• Moneyline: Atlanta +280, NYCFC -120, Draw +300
• Betting Value: Atlanta is a tempting underdog, but there’s not much value here in the end.

The other expansion club, Atlanta United, will play yet another road game this week when they head up to Yankee Stadium to take on NYCFC. They’re one of few teams in the league that hasn’t enjoyed much of a home field advantage to this point. Despite playing in front of 55,000+ every week, ATL are just 1-2-0 on their home turf. They’ve been excellent on the road, though, boasting a 2-1-2 mark.

NYCFC are 2-1-1 through their first four matches of the season at Yankee Stadium. The Blues picked up an excellent 3-2 win last week in Columbus, which is a place not many road teams go into and pick up a win. David Villa missed that one, but Jack Harrison picked up the slack, scoring twice as NYC rallied from a goal deficit against the Crew.

Atlanta, meanwhile, were beaten 3-1 by DC United last weekend. They were dominant over the first 20 minutes or so, but the wheels fell off after that. Tata Martino tried to jolt some energy into his side by changing the formation late in the second half, but it was not to be. They’ll need to stop dropping points at home if they plan on sticking in the playoff race very long.

ATL have showed strong composure away from home, so seeing them go into NYC and pick up a win wouldn’t be particularly surprising. With David Villa back, though, we like the home team here.