In the final game of Week 11, football fans will be treated to an exciting MNF contest between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Rams. These are two of the best teams in the NFL and this game could be a Super Bowl preview. Fasten your seatbelts and get your popcorn ready because this is going to be a track meet up and down the field. Kickoff inside Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum is at 8:15 PM ET.
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These two teams have played against each other 11 times and the Chiefs hold the advantage with an all-time record of 7-4. Monday’s matchup will also be the 6th time these teams have played against each other in Los Angeles. Currently, the Chiefs are 4-1 at LA. Kansas City has won 6 straight games including the last time they played against each other in 2014.
The Rams (9-1) are undefeated at home going 5-0 on the season to date. They’re coming off a tough home victory over divisional foe the Seattle Seahawks. Two weeks ago, the Rams lost to the Saints. Since then, this LA defense has been a weak link on a Super Bowl contender. Will the Rams be able to slow down the Chiefs at all?
The Chiefs (9-1) are 4-1 on the road and have won 4 straight games since their 43-40 road loss at New England. The Chiefs defeated Arizona last weekend and look to keep this winning streak going. Right now, KC is the top seed in the AFC. A win this weekend would put them one step closer to earning home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Depending on which betting site you looked at, this spread opened anywhere from -1 to -3 for the Rams. Since then, the spread has gone as high as -4 for LA. Currently, most sportsbooks have the Rams favored by 3.5 points. The Over/Under opened at 63 points for most online sportsbooks. The total went as high as 63.5 points before settling at the current O/U of 62.5 total points.
Free NFL Over Bet and Game Prediction: Over 62.5 Points
If you like offensive explosions then you are going to love this game. The Chiefs come into this contest averaging 35.3 ppg and have scored 35+ points in 6 of their 10 games. The Chiefs boast of one of the best passing offenses in the league with an average of 315 ypg. 2nd year QB Patrick Mahomes is rewriting KC history books and looking to do the same thing to the NFL record books. On the season, Mahomes has 3,150 passing yards, 31 TD passes and just 7 INTs. He will be going up against a Rams defense that is giving up 253.9 passing ypg.
Two weeks ago, the Rams gave up 346 passing yards in a loss to Drew Brees and the Saints. Mahomes and the KC passing attack is every bit as good as the Saints, if not better. I expect KC to put up at least 300 passing yards this weekend.
Unfortunately, that’s not the only problem for the Rams. This defensive unit has been gashed on the ground over the last few weeks. In fact, the Seahawks just put up 273 rushing yards on LA last weekend. The Saints put up 143 rushing yards on LA. I can see KC’s Kareem Hunt having a solid rushing performance this weekend as well.
As bad as the Rams defense has been over the last few weeks, the Chiefs have still been worse. On the season, KC is giving up 432.4 total ypg and 24 ppg. They are giving up 310.7 passing ypg, which bodes well for Rams QB Goff who has 3,124 passing yards, 23 TD passes and just 6 INTs. The Chiefs are just as bad against the run as the Rams have been. KC gives up 121.7 rushing ypg and now they will be going up against the best running back in the league – Todd Gurley. TGII has 988 rushing yards and 13 rushing TDs on the year.
With all of this firepower, there’s no doubt in my mind that these two teams will combine to score over 62.5 points this Monday. These two teams average a total of 68.8 ppg on the year. At home, the Rams score 34.4 ppg. On the road, the Chiefs score 36.8 ppg. That’s a total of 71.2 ppg.
The Over is 6-1 in KC’s last 7 road games and 4-1 this year. The Over is also 4-1 in KC’s last 5 MNF games and 4-1 in KC’s last 5 road games against teams with winning home records. For the Rams, the Over is 7-1 in their last 8 games where they’ve totaled over 250 passing yards, 4-1 against teams with winning records, 11-5 in their last 16 games following an ATS loss, and 21-10 in last 31 home games against teams with winning road records.
I think this game is too close to go with either moneyline. The Chiefs are 8-2 ATS this year, so taking the 3.5 points is not a bad idea.
The smart bet is the Over in this matchup of two of the league’s top scoring teams.
As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site. ...
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