On Monday, August 19th, the San Francisco 49ers visit the high altitude of the Colorado Rockies as they take on the Denver Broncos in a preseason edition of Monday Night Football. The Broncos hope to bounce back from a road loss last week, while the 49ers look to keep their momentum going after a home win in their preseason opener. Each team is expected to play many of their starters as they inch closer to the regular season. Kickoff for the 49ers vs Broncos game inside Broncos Stadium at Mile High is at 8PM ET and will be televised nationally on ESPN.
|Betting Data||San Francisco 49ers||Denver Broncos|
|2019 S/U Preseason Record||1-0||1-1|
|2018 ATS Home||3-5||2-5-1|
|2018 ATS Away||2-6||4-4|
|2018 O/U Home||4-4||1-7|
|2018 O/U Away||5-3||2-5-1|
The 49ers and Broncos have played against each other 15 times in the regular season and postseason with San Francisco holding the edge at 8-7. Their most memorable encounter came during Super Bowl XXIV where the 49ers routed the Broncos.
The Broncos and the 49ers have played against each other 31 times in the preseason and it’s the Broncos who have the advantage with a 19-12 record. This will be their seventh preseason game in the last eight years, and Denver has gone 4-2 in that span. Since 2000, they’ve played 12 preseason games against each other and the Broncos have gone 4-8 during that stretch.
San Francisco (1-0) defended their home turf against the Cowboys last week as they won 17 to 9. The big question this week is whether or not QB Jimmy Garoppolo will play on Monday. He sat out the first preseason game as he works his way back from an ACL tear last year. Despite not having their starting QB, the 49ers still moved the ball on offense and flashed potential without Jimmy G in the lineup.
Denver (1-1) has played in two preseason games already as they kicked off the exhibition season in the HOF game against the Atlanta Falcons. Denver came back to win that game 14-10, but fell to the Seahawks last week on the road. Denver gave up 19 second half points and lost 22 to 14.
This spread has seen some movement throughout the week. Most NFL betting sites opened the spread with the Broncos favored by 2 to 2.5 points. However, it quickly shifted to even before slowly climbing back up to a current line of Denver by 2.5 points. The over/under has seen less movement with online betting sites. Initially, the O/U opened at 42.5 points with most sports betting sites and has only come down slightly to 42 total points.
Last week, Denver got out to a 6-3 halftime lead over the Seahawks, but ended up being outscored 19-8 in the second half of the game and losing. Seattle’s backup QB, and former Broncos first round draft pick, Paxton Lynch lit up Denver with 109 yards passing, 1 TD throw, and a rushing TD.
The 49ers were able to use the second half in their preseason opener to come from behind and beat the Dallas Cowboys. San Francisco was down 9-7 at halftime, but shutout the Cowboys in the second half and went on to win the game 17 to 9. C.J. Beathard looked good for the 49ers, as he finished with 141 yards passing and 1 TD. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel made his presence felt as well with 62 receiving yards.
In two games, Denver’s offense has only put up 28 total points. Last year, San Francisco scored a total of 30 points in their two preseason games on the road. They’re on pace for close to that total as they only had 17 points in their first preseason game, which was at home. Both defenses have looked better than their offenses not only in the preseason, but also in the joint practices.
Even if Jimmy G returns to the starting lineup, you have to expect that he’s out there for just a few plays and same for Joe Flacco with the Broncos. It’s unclear if both offensive units will have their full arsenal of weapons due to injuries.
With that said, I like the under for this game. In their last 10 head-to-head preseason matchups, these two teams have combined to score under 40 points in six of those games. In their last six regular season meetings, the under is 4-2.
Denver has seen the under hit in 10 straight games, including hitting for both preseason games this year. The under is also 5-0 in Denver’s last five home games. Lastly, the Broncos have hit the under in three straight preseason games dating back to last year.
For the 49ers, the under is 6-4 in their last 10 games including Week 1 of the preseason. The under is 4-2 in their last six preseason games. Over the last five head-to-head preseason meetings, the 49ers have scored only 12.8 ppg.
As you can see, there’s not a lot of evidence that these two teams will light up the scoreboard on Monday. If anything, they will take it easy on the starters for the first half before both teams open up the scoring in the second half. I’m going to give Denver the slight advantage for this game since they’re at home in the altitude, but I don’t see either team breaking 21 points.
Shop around other online betting sites to see if you can get the point total a little higher than 42 points. Even 42.5 points is better, because that half point could make a difference.
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