Picks

With the series tied at 1-1, the 2019 NBA Finals shifts to Northern California for Game 3. The Golden State Warriors managed to even the series with the Toronto Raptors at a game apiece thanks to a big push in the second half of Game 2. After the Raptors pretty much ran away with Game 1 at home, they nearly pulled off the same feat in Game 2.

The Raptors rushed to a 12-point lead by the middle of the second quarter, but Golden State responded. By the end of the half, the Warriors had trimmed the lead by more than half. By the middle of the third quarter, Golden State had taken the lead for good, as the Warriors won 109-104.

In Game 2, Klay Thompson led the Warriors in scoring with 25 points, while Stephen Curry added 23 of his own. In his first start of the NBA Finals, DeMarcus Cousins provided a nice energy boost, with 11 points, 10 rebounds, and 6 assists.

For Toronto, Kawhi Leonard was once again the Raptors’ leader, finishing with a double-double. But despite his 34 points and 14 rebounds in the game, Leonard closed the contest with a -14 rating in point differential.

Golden State has faired quite well lately at home. The Warriors have won five straight at home, going a perfect 5-0 over the last two rounds. However, margin of victory hasn’t necessarily been Golden State’s strong suit in those contests. Only once in those five games did Golden State win by more than six points.

Game 3 has a spread set at 5½, with -110 payout odds on either side. On a moneyline wager, meanwhile, the Warriors list at -235 and the Raptors come in at +195. Those odds, for me, mean I would not consider Golden State on a moneyline bet to win. I do think that the Warriors will pick up the win in Game 3, but -235 doesn’t really interest me much.

So, for Game 3, I turn to the spread. If there’s a game in this series where Golden State might be able to run up the score, it’s going to be Game 3. It’s their first home contest of the series, and DeMarcus Cousins is returning to action at home for the first time in weeks. While Golden State on the moneyline is a “play it safe” pick, I’m taking the Warriors to cover the spread.