I didn’t trust a -10 point spread last night when the Golden State Warriors prepared to host the Oklahoma City Thunder. My gut ended up being right, as OKC went up 2-0 in the season series with a second blowout win over the defending champs.
To be fair, I didn’t think the Thunder would win easily (or at all). I just didn’t think the Dubs would trounce them. They didn’t and it helped me to my second straight win while lifting my season NBA picks mark to 47-35-2.
My hope at this point is to stay hot and reach 50 wins before I come close to 40 losses on the year. That is made a little more difficult on Wednesday’s NBA betting slate, as bettors only get six games to work with. The pickings are relatively slim at first glance, too, as two games don’t even have lines out yet.
The other four games include teams like the Grizzlies and Cavaliers, so it’s fair if bettors want to mail this one in and take a break.
I actually see some solid value on this slate in a few spots, though, with one appealing game going down in Detroit against the Pistons and Brooklyn Nets.
Normally I don’t trust the Nets on the road (8-18 away from the Barclays Center this year) and they did just play last night, but I like their chances of keeping this one close.
It’s worth noting the Detroit Pistons are red hot at the moment, though. The team is 4-0 since trading for Blake Griffin and also has been a tough out (17-10) on their home floor. However, the ATS data favors the Nets, who have been pretty pesky in the face of advantageous bettors for much of the year.
Does that mean you should ride them as an upset special, take the points or make a different bet? Let’s break this matchup down to find out:
Bettors will not be eager to place a bet in favor of the Pistons, who return zero value tonight (-418 at Bet Phoenix). The only viable angles tonight, instead, are taking the Nets straight up, backing the Nets against the spread, picking Detroit to cover or targeting the Total.
Detroit covering isn’t out of the question here. They smoked the Cavaliers four games ago and just housed Portland in their last game.
Those games have been part of a nice four-game winning streak, which started since the team landed stud power forward Blake Griffin in a huge trade with the Los Angeles Clippers.
It’s crazy how much success this team has had so quickly. They lost some defense and outside shooting in that trade and Griffin can’t possibly be fully acclimated already. Detroit has been winning, though, and it’s something bettors can’t flat out ignore.
I prefer the other side of this game if I’m targeting the spread, though. Detroit has been just average against the spread (26-24-2) on the year, while their numbers as home favorites ATS (8-11-1) aren’t jaw-dropping.
Brooklyn, meanwhile, has been annoying for bettors. I personally have seen them burn my bets several times this year, as they’re a lot more competitive than people give them credit for. The Nets don’t defend well, but they do push the pace and have several pieces that can hurt you.
The team finally got star guard D’Angelo Russell (knee) back into the rotation, while Brooklyn has been getting stellar play from point guard Spencer Dinwiddie all year long. The emergence of rookie big man Jarrett Allen helps them down low, too, while Brooklyn’s fast pace can produce points in a hurry.
I’m not entirely sure just how effective that will be on the road against a Pistons team that can bite down defensively, but the Nets still hang in ball games more than you’d expect.
That’s certainly been the case when you look at their ATS data, as the Nets have a sweet 32-21-2 overall record against the spread this season and have gone 16-8-1 ATS as road underdogs.
I have very real interest in the Nets beating this spread for three reasons; they’ve proven they can do it time and time again, they already beat the Pistons in Detroit in January and this is not a small spread.
On top of that, the Pistons have sandwiched two very tight wins in between their two blowout wins. I think they could be in for more of a dogfight here and if you agree the Nets can keep it close, you may even want to pounce on them as an SU option (+375 at 5Dimes!).
This is all appealing and worth considering, but I just can’t ignore a low 209 Total.
That’s my favorite betting angle for this game, and really this entire slate. For one, the Pistons are most comfortable on their home floor and ever since Griffin arrived, they’re just more fluid on offense.
Call it the “swagger” aspect or whatever you want, but this team seems more confident now. Having two stud big men who can kill defenses inside can’t hurt, while the Pistons still have a plethora of outside shooters defenses have to worry about.
Detroit isn’t the fastest or most efficient offense, but they still put up over 103 points per game and have the fourth best outside shooting numbers in the NBA. Things have changed due to this big trade that just went down, but Griffin isn’t hurting their offense (Detroit has topped 104+ points in every game he’s played).
If anything, perhaps the Pistons sulk on defense a bit. That only helps my play for the Over here, as the Nets should help this game pick up the pace (6th in pace) and they love to launch it from deep (3rd in three-pointers made per game).
I trust the Pistons to get the win, but I think the Nets keep this thing close and bettors get a real shot at the Over. Normally I’d be a bit hesitant with the Nets on the road, but this is not a high Total at all and if both teams show up, the Over feels like an easy call.
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