New Orleans Saints vs Baltimore Ravens Odds, Pick and Prediction

by Rick Rockwell
on October 19, 2018

Minute Read

The matchup between the Saints and the Ravens is quite possibly the best game of Week 7. New Orleans takes their high scoring show on the road against a rugged Baltimore defense that’s looking to defend their home turf. Both teams are at the top of their respective divisions and looking to stay that way. Will it be one of the best offenses or the league’s top defense that prevails this Sunday? Kickoff inside M&T Bank Stadium is at 4:05 PM ET.

Saints vs Ravens Live Odds and Betting History

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Betting Data New Orleans Saints Baltimore Ravens
Current S/U record 4-1 4-2
2018 Home 2-1 2-0
2018 Away 2-0 2-2
2018 ATS 3-2 4-2
2018 ATS Home 1-2 2-0
2018 ATS Away 2-0 2-2
2018 O/U 3-2 2-4
2018 O/U Home 2-1 1-1
2018 O/U Away 1-1 1-3

New Orleans Saints vs Baltimore Ravens NFL Preview

Since the Ravens entered the league, they have played the Saints 6 times and hold a 5-1 all-time advantage. These two teams haven’t played since 2014. However, the 1 victory the Saints do have in this series was at Baltimore in 2002. The Ravens are 3-1 all-time at home against the Saints.

New Orleans (4-1) is 2-0 on the road this year and had a Bye Week last weekend. This could give the Saints an advantage on Sunday, as they will be well rested and well prepared. New Orleans comes into this matchup having won 4 straight games since their opening week debacle against Tampa Bay. Can Drew Brees outclass this elite Ravens defense?

Baltimore (4-2) is coming off a complete domination of the Titans last weekend as they won 21-0. Their defense sacked Titans QB Mariota 11 times in a shutout win. However, the Ravens did lose at Cleveland two weeks ago, which has put a damper on their season to date. Baltimore is 2-0 at home and looking to contain the Saints high scoring offense on Sunday.

Depending on the online sportsbook, the spread either saw plenty of movement or none at all. In the case of BetOnline, the spread opened with the Ravens being favored by 3 points and quickly came down to 2.5 points where it has remained. The Over/Under opened at 50.5 points at most betting sites before coming down to the current line of 49.5 total points.

Free NFL Spread Bet and Prediction: New Orleans Saints +2.5

The Saints come into this matchup averaging 36 ppg, while the Ravens are only allowing 12.8 ppg. Despite this impressively low number, the Ravens did give up 34 points to the Bengals in Week 2. So, they are susceptible to moments of poor play. That’s where the Saints will have to take advantage of Baltimore.

New Orleans does most of its damage through the passing game as they put up 333.6 passing ypg and 436.8 total ypg. With that said, Baltimore’s pass defense has been tremendous and will give Drew Brees and the Saints passing attack a lot of problems on Sunday. Furthermore, Baltimore only allows 214.7 passing ypg and 297.5 total ypg. So, the Saints are going to have to earn every yard they can get. Nothing will come easy.

Fortunately for the Saints, they got Mark Ingram back and he’s the type of runner better suited for a smash mouth type of game like this one. Ingram can go inside or outside with speed and power. Sprinkle in some Kamara out of the backfield, and the Ravens linebackers are going to have a long day.

On the flip side, the Ravens Offense only scores 25.5 ppg and have put up only 30 points over the last two games. In Cleveland, two weeks ago, the Ravens offense only scored 9 points. That’s not going to get it done against the Saints who can score 30+ points in their sleep.

Joe Flacco is going to need a strong performance this weekend to match Drew Brees. Fortunately, the Saints are giving up 313.4 passing yards per game. However, New Orleans is only allowing 71.4 rushing yards per game. Baltimore needs their running game to have some success in order to take advantage of their play action passing game.

Ultimately, this game will come down to which team has the most success on the ground and with their running backs. With that said, you have to like the duo of Ingram and Kamara over Collins and Allen.

The Saints are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 road games, 10-5 ATS as an Underdog, 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games during Weeks 5 through 9, 8-4 ATS after winning 2 or more games in a row, 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS following a Bye Week, and 7-3 ATS when a road game has an Over/Under of 49.5 points or more. Furthermore, the Saints are 8-1 SU and 8-0 ATS in October games over the last 2+ years.

Baltimore is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 October games, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 NFC games, and 4-7 SU in their last 11 games during Weeks 5 through 9.

I believe this will be a close game in the end and it could be decided by a point or two. With that said, I like the Saints getting 2.5 points in this matchup. If you can do some line shopping and find the Saints getting 3 points then jump all over that.

Although I believe the Saints will win this game outright, it’s too risky betting on their moneyline of +119. Baltimore is tough at home and anything can happen. Furthermore, this game could end up being low scoring or it could turn into a shootout. So, avoid the Over/Under. The smart play is the Saints getting +2.5 points.

Saints vs Ravens Betting Recap:

  • Oddsmaker: BetOnline
  • Money lines: Saints (+119) and Ravens (-139)
  • Spread: Ravens -2.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under: 49.5 total points (-108)
  • Prediction: New Orleans 26 – Baltimore 24
Pick: Saints +2.5

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