New York Mets at Washington Nationals MLB Pick for August 4, 2020

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nationals mets
Teams Runline Moneyline Total
Mets +1.5 (-150) +105 Over 9
Nationals -1.5 (+130) -125 Under 9

We have 13 Major League Baseball games populating Tuesday’s schedule, including an NL East showdown between a couple of potential World Series contenders. The New York Mets, fresh off of a win over the Atlanta Braves on Monday, will head to the nation’s capital to take on the reigning champion Washington Nationals. The Nationals have been off since last week after their weekend series with the Miami Marlins was postponed.

The Nationals figure to be well-rested for this one. There has been some dispute with regard to which starter will pitch in this one. Both Patrick Corbin and Max Scherzer have been mentioned, but Corbin seems more likely to get the nod at this point. Corbin allowed just a run on two hits with eight strikeouts in his season debut against the Yankees last week, but he wound up taking a no-decision in Washington’s 3-2 loss.

Steven Matz will make his third start of the young season for the Mets. New York is a +140 moneyline underdog here in a game with an over/under of nine runs.

Tough Spot for Matz

Matz was excellent against the Braves in his first outing of the year. He allowed just a run on two hits in six innings of work along with seven strikeouts. The Mets wound up blowing that game in extra innings, which is a very Mets thing do to.

Matz didn’t have as much luck in his most recent start, however. The Red Sox tagged him for three runs on eight hits in 5.1 innings of duty, while he induced just three strikeouts.

The left-hander has been slightly above-average in his career in terms of Ks. Matz has a 22.1 percent strikeout rate of his career alongside a 7.3 percent walk rate. Control has always been a strong suit for him, but he does have a wide platoon split. Matz allowed a career-high 27 homers a season ago, and the Nationals lineup he’ll face tonight does boast plenty of power.

Nationals Park has a reputation as a pitcher-friendly park, but that doesn’t really jive with the numbers. Nationals Park averaged the fourth-most runs scored per game of any ballpark in 2019, behind only Coors Field, Globe Life Park, and Comerica Park.

The Nationals will be getting Juan Soto back for this game, which is obviously huge after he missed the first week-and-a-half. The projected Washington lineup had a collective .358 wOBA against left-handed pitching a season ago alongside a low 18.1 percent strikeout rate. I’d expect the Nats to be putting plenty of balls in play in this one, which doesn’t bode too well for Matz.

Corbin Starting for Washington?

As mentioned, we’re assuming Patrick Corbin will start this game for the Nats. Corbin was excellent despite a tough matchup against the Yankees in his first outing. The Mets have an improved lineup this season, but they did just lose a big right-handed bat with Yoenis Cespedes deciding to opt-out over the weekend.

Corbin’s strong change-up helps him get right-handed hitters out, but he does still allow his fair share of power vs. RHBs. Righties had a relatively low .298 wOBA at his expense last season, but he also coughed up 22 homers. Lefties meanwhile, had a low .229 wOBA with just two homers.

That favors Corbin against lefties like Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil, but there are still some solid righties here. Pete Alonso has done nothing but rake against lefties since coming to the big leagues, while Amed Rosario, Wilson Ramos, JD Davis, and Brian Dozier all have solid histories against opposite-handed pitching.

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Pick

It’s interesting to see the over on 9 runs given plus-money odds given for this game. We typically see both sides of the over/under listed around -110, yet Vegas seems pretty optimistic about the under here. There are a couple of quality left-handed pitchers taking the mound, but I tend to think the general public underrates how good Nationals Park is for hitting.

It’s also going to be a warm and humid night in DC, which is good for bats, as well. These look like two of the better offensive teams in the National League, so I’m more than happy to grab that plus-money value on the over here.

Pick: Over 9 Runs
Odds: +105
$100 Could Win You...$205.00
Taylor Smith

Taylor Smith has been a staff writer with since early 2017. Taylor is primarily a sports writer, though he will occasionally dabble in other things like politics and entertainment betting. His primary specialties are writing about the NBA, Major League Baseball, NFL and domestic and international soccer. Fringe sports like golf and horse racing aren’t exactly his cup of tea, bu ...

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