NFC Championship Betting Preview: Buccaneers vs Packers Odds and Pick

By in NFL on
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Buccaneers vs Packers
Pick: Buccaneers +3
Odds: +103
$100 Could Win You...$203.00

On Sunday, January 24th, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Green Bay Packers will face off in the NFC Championship game with the winner going to Super Bowl LV.

This game features two HOF quarterbacks as Tom Brady leads the Bucs into Green Bay to take on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.

Will Brady lead another team to the Super Bowl and a shot at a 7th ring or will Aaron Rodgers return to the SB for the first time in a decade? Kickoff inside Lambeau Field is at 3:05PM ET.

Buccaneers vs Packers Live Odds and Betting History

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Money Lines Totals
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 (+103) +146 Over 52 (-110)
Green Bay Packers -3 (-118) -146 Under 52 (-110)
Betting Data Tampa Bay Buccaneers Green Bay Packers
2020 Record 13-5 14-3
2020 Home 5-3 8-1
2020 Away 8-2 6-2
2020 ATS 11-8 11-6
2020 ATS Home 5-3 6-3
2020 ATS Away 5-5 5-3
2020 O/U 10-8 10-7
2020 O/U Home 4-4 5-4
2020 O/U Away 6-4 5-3

Buccaneers vs Packers NFC Championship Preview

These two teams have played against each other 56 times with the Packers leading the all-time series at 33-22-1. Green Bay is 20-7 all-time in home games against the Bucs and have won 15 of their last 16 at Lambeau Field vs Tampa Bay.

The Green Bay Packers won the only Playoff matchup between these teams back in the 1998 NFC Divisional Round.

Tampa Bay handed the Packers their worst loss of the season back in October when they won by the score of 38 to 10. It was the only game that Aaron Rodgers didn’t contribute at least two touchdowns.

The Bucs (13-5) are coming off an impressive win over the New Orleans Saints in the NFC Divisional Round. Tampa Bay looked like a complete football team and played even better than they did in their Wild Card Round win over the Washington Football Team.

With these two wins, the Bucs have improved their all-time Playoff record to 8-9. They also bumped their Divisional Record to 4-2 all-time. However, Tampa Bay is just 1-2 in NFC Championship games. Their last appearance was in 2002 when they ended up winning the Super Bowl.

Green Bay (14-3) had a bye in the Wild Card Round and then came out and crushed the Rams 32 to 18 in the Divisional Round. It was an impressive performance as Rodgers and the offense put up over 30 points against the NFL’s best defense.

With the win, the Packers improved to 36-23 all-time. They’re also 20-5 at home in the Playoffs. Green Bay is 5-5 all-time in the NFC Championship game, but this will be the first time they host the conference championship game in the Aaron Rodgers era.

Head to Head Betting Trends

  • Each team is 5-5 SU in last 10 meetings
  • Tampa Bay is 6-4 ATS in last 10 contests
  • O/U is 5-5 in last 10 matchups
  • Green Bay is 15-1 SU in last 16 home games

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Trends

  • 7-0 SU in last seven road games
  • 6-0 SU in last six overall games
  • 13-5 SU this season
  • 10-4 SU in NFC games
  • 6-2 SU after two or more wins in a row
  • 5-2 ATS in last seven games
  • 7-4 ATS in last 11 grass games
  • 3-1 ATS versus the NFC North this season
  • Under is 4-1 in last five NFC North games

Green Bay Packers Betting Trends

  • 11-2 SU in NFC games this season
  • 11-2 SU in grass games
  • 12-2 SU as a Favorite this year
  • 8-1 SU in home games this season
  • 7-2 SU after winning two or more games this year
  • 9-4 ATS in NFC games this season
  • 6-3 ATS in home games this year
  • 9-5 ATS as a Favorite this year
  • Under is 4-1 in last five NFC South games

The spread opened with the Packers favored by 3.5 points. It went as high as 4 points before settling down at 3 points in favor of Green Bay with most NFL betting sites.

The Over/Under opened at 51.5 points and went as high as 52 points before falling down to the current O/U of 51 total points with most online betting sites.

Free NFC Championship Bet and Prediction: Bucs +3 (+103)

If you can get the spread at +3.5 for the Buccaneers then do so. If not, I still think we Push at worse with this wager.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers destroyed the Packers during the regular season, but both teams have evolved since then. The Packers would go on to be the best in the NFC and the Bucs would go on to become a more complete football team on both sides of the ball.

The following in-game matchups will be the deciding factors in this NFC Championship game:

Brady vs the Packers Secondary

On the season, the Packers gave up only 221.2 passing yards per game, which was 7th best in the league. The Bucs finished 2nd in the league with 289.1 passing yards per game.

Brady played Washington’s 2nd rank pass defense in the Wild Card Round and threw for 381 yards and 2 TDs. He then played the 5th ranked pass defense in the Saints in the Divisional Round and threw for 199 yards and 2 TDs.

I believe Brady will need to throw for 250 yards and at least 2 TDs in order for the Bucs to upset the Packers on the road. Right now, I give the edge in this matchup to Brady.

Rodgers vs the Buccaneers Secondary

Rodgers has an easier matchup against the Bucs secondary than Brady does against the Pack’s secondary. Tampa Bay finished 21st against the pass as they allowed 246.6 ypg.

They did hold the Saints to under 200 passing yards in the Divisional Round. However, Washington was able to tally over 300 yards passing in the Wild Card Round.

Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers averaged roughly 268 passing ypg and 3 TDs per game during the regular season. He continued his MVP campaign by putting up 296 yards and 2 TDs on the NFL’s top defense in the Playoffs.

Rodgers will have a big game this weekend. The advantage goes to the Packers in this one.

The X Factor – Tampa’s Running Game

Green Bay’s Aaron Jones is the most talented running back in this game, but he’s going up against the league’s top run defense in the Buccaneers who shut down both the Saints and the Washington Football Team in the Playoffs so far.

That means Tampa’s running game could end up being the deciding factor in this matchup especially if their secondary is unable to slow down Rodgers and the Packers offense.

The Packers rush defense finished 13th in the regular season allowing only 112.8 rushing ypg. They held the Rams to just 96 yards rushing which was an impressive feat. However, the Rams were a bit one-dimensional and played from behind.

Tampa Bay rushed for 142 yards against Washington and 127 yards against the Saints who were a Top 5 rush defense. I like their chances of rushing for over 120 yards this week.

If Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette combine for a big game, Tampa will not only win this matchup, but also win the NFC Championship.

Who Will Win the NFC Title?

This is going to be an exciting contest. With that said, I like the Packers to fend off the Bucs and win by three points or less. Rodgers is going to torch this Bucs secondary and I just don’t see Tampa Bay being able to beat the Packers on the road when Rodgers is this red hot.

When the Playoffs started, I thought Tampa was the one team to beat Green Bay. But, after what Rodgers did to the Rams league leading defense, I don’t see Green Bay losing now.

Buccaneers vs Packers Betting Recap:

  • Oddsmaker: BetOnline
  • Moneylines: Packers (-166) vs Bucs (+146)
  • Spread: Packers -3 (-118)
  • Over/Under: 51 total points (-110)
  • Prediction: Packers 27 – Bucs 24


Team
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4 (-120) +3.5 (-120) +3 (+103)
Rick Rockwell

As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site. ...

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