Things heat up in the NFC South for Week 11 as the Atlanta Falcons take on the New Orleans Saints in a key divisional battle.
The big storyline heading into this matchup is the injury to Saints’ quarterback Drew Brees. The future HOF QB will be out indefinitely as he deals with broken ribs and a collapsed lung suffered in last weekend’s game against the 49ers.
Can the Saints keep marching to victory without Brees or will the Falcons score a big upset in the Big Easy? Kickoff inside the Mercedes Benz Superdome is at 1PM ET.
These divisional rivals have played against each other 102 times. The Falcons lead the all-time series with a 53-49 record. However, it’s the Saints that have won four of the last five meetings. Surprisingly, the Falcons are 26-25 at New Orleans all-time.
The Atlanta Falcons (3-6) is coming off a Bye where they got an extra week to prepare for the Saints. The Falcons have won three of their last four games since starting 0-5 and could be 4-5 if it weren’t for a last second loss to the Lions over that stretch. Can Atlanta get one game closer to .500 with a win this week?
The New Orleans Saints (7-2) have won six straight games since starting off the year at 1-2. Three of those wins were against good teams like Tampa Bay, Chicago and Carolina. New Orleans is 4-1 at home, but will need backup QB Jameis Winston to play smart football while taking over for Drew Brees.
Head to Head Betting Trends
Saints are 6-4 SU in last 10 games
Saints are 7-3 ATS in last 10 meetings
The Under is 6-3-1 in last 10 matchups
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in last five games
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in last five matchups
Atlanta Falcons Betting Trends
7-3 SU in last 10 NFC South games
2-0 SU following a Bye Week
10-17 SU in last 27 dome games
4-2 SU after two re more wins in a row
7-1 ATS in last eight road games
2-0 ATS following a Bye Week
Under is 4-2 in last six games
Under is 4-1 in last five NFC games
New Orleans Saints Betting Trends
6-0 SU in last six games
5-0 SU in last five NFC games
6-2 SU as a favorite this season
17-7 SU in last 24 home games
21-8 SU in last 29 dome games
10-2 SU in last 12 November games
13-2 SU when playing against a losing team
4-1 ATS in last five NFC South games
8-4 ATS in last 12 November games
3-5 ATS as a favorite this year
11-4 ATS when playing against a losing team
Over is 4-1 in last five home games
Over is 7-2 in last nine overall games
The Saints opened as a 7 point favorite over the Falcons, but that line has come down to range of 4.5 to 5 points in favor of New Orleans. Make sure to shop around the NFL betting sites to get a higher spread if you are taking Atlanta.
The Over/Under opened at 51 points and has move up and down from 50 to 51.5 points over the last few days. Most online betting sites have the O/U listed at 51 total points.
Free NFL Sports Bet and Game Prediction: Falcons +4.5 (-105)
It’s true, the Saints have gone 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these two teams, but their average scores are very close. The Falcons have averaged 25.2ppg and the Saints have averaged 26.4ppg in the last 10 head to head matchups.
On the season, the Saints average 30.1ppg and the Falcons average 27ppg. Furthermore, the Saints give up 23.7ppg and the Falcons give up 27.9ppg. All of these scoring averages for head to head matchups and the 2020 season are within the 4.5 point spread for this Week 11 contest.
The Saints defense is great against the run, but they’re not as good against the pass as they allow 250.9 passing ypg. The Falcons have the 2nd best passing offense at 305.1 yards per game. I really like this matchup for Atlanta as I believe they will find success through the air on Sunday.
On the flip side, Atlanta has had one of the worst defenses this season especially against the pass as they’ve allowed 322.6 yards per game through the air. But, they won’t be facing Drew Brees this weekend. Instead, they will be facing Jameis Winston.
Last weekend when Winston came in for an injured Brees, he went 6-of-10 for 63 yards and 2 sacks. Last year as a starter, Winston led the league in interceptions. He might have matured in his short time with New Orleans, but I doubt it’s to the point where he leads this team to a victory.
Atlanta has a deceptively good rush defense that allows 99.7 ypg. I expect the Falcons to stack the box in order to stop Saints RB Alvin Kamara, while also forcing Winston to beat them.
Until I see Winston win a game as the Saints starter, I can’t pick New Orleans to cover a spread. Especially one that’s as high as 5 points.
The Saints have gone 6-2 SU as a betting favorite this year, but they’re just 3-5 ATS in those contests. Atlanta is coming off a bye week where they’re 2-0 SU the last two seasons. Additionally, Atlanta is 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games and 2-2 SU on the road this season.
I’m taking the Falcons and the points. Furthermore, I wouldn’t be surprised if they win this game outright.
As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site. ...
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