Will the Oklahoma Sooners Show Us Who the Real Baylor Bears Are?

By in NCAAF on

On Saturday, November 16th, the top spot in the Big 12 Conference will be up for grabs as the #13 Baylor Bears host the #10 Oklahoma Sooners.

Baylor (9-0, 6-0 Big 12) is undefeated on the season and looking to score an upset victory this weekend against the Sooners. Baylor is inching their way up the rankings and a win over Oklahoma would give them a two-game lead in the Conference and a decent shot at making the CFP.

The Sooners are fighting to become the top one-loss team in the country so that they can try to nab the 4th and final CFP spot that’s currently held by the one-loss Georgia Bulldogs. Oklahoma can take a big step towards the #4 spot by defeating the unbeaten Baylor Bears in an impressive fashion.

Kickoff inside McLane Stadium is at 7:30 PM ET.

Oklahoma vs Baylor Betting Preview

Teams Spread Money Lines Totals
Oklahoma Sooners -10 (-110) -375 67.5 (-115)
Baylor Bears +10 (-110) +315 Under 67.5 (-105)

The Sooners and Bears have played against each other 28 times. Oklahoma has dominated this head to head rivalry with a record of 25-3 all-time against Baylor.
The Sooners have won the last four games in a row vs Baylor. However, the Bears have gone 2-2 in their last four home games against Oklahoma. Last year, the Sooners destroyed Baylor by the score of 66 to 33. The last time they played in Waco, Texas, was 2017 and the Sooners won 49 to 41.

The spread for this game initially opened with Oklahoma favored by nine points at the majority of college football betting sites. Currently, the Sooners are favored by 10 points. The Over/Under opened at 67 points and has gone up slightly to 67.5 total points with most online betting sites.

The moneylines opened with Oklahoma at -335 and Baylor at +275. Since then, most sports betting sites have Oklahoma listed around -375 and Baylor as a +315 underdog at home.

Head to Head Betting Trends

  • In the last 10 head to head games, Baylor is 6-4 ATS.
  • The Over also comes in at 6-4 over that same span.

Oklahoma Sooners Betting Trends

  • Oklahoma is 1-4 ATS in their last five overall games.
  • The Sooners are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as a road favorite.
  • Oklahoma is 2-4 ATS in their last six Big 12 games.
  • The Sooners are 3-5 ATS in their last eight November games.
  • The Over is 5-0 in their last five November games.
  • The Over is 13-6 in Oklahoma’s last 19 games.

Baylor Bears Betting Trends

  • Baylor is 4-2 ATS in their last six games.
  • The Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last six November games.
  • The Bears are 4-2 ATS in their last six Big 12 games.
  • Baylor is 11-5 ATS when playing against winning teams.
  • The Under is 5-2 when Baylor is an underdog.

Free Big 12 Betting Prediction: Baylor Bears +10 (-110)

Both teams have strong offense units that have led the way as each program jockeys for the conference’s top spot. Although Baylor has been strong on offense, Oklahoma is one of the best in the nation.

The Baylor Bears offense has been a scoring machine in conference play coming in at roughly 30 ppg. For the year, they’ve scored 35.3 ppg and put up 459.6 ypg, 271.3 passing ypg, and 188.2 rushing ypg. The last two weeks, this team has only scored 46 total points, but won both games.

The Sooners lead the nation in total yards per game with 587.3 ypg. They’re 5th in passing at 338.1 ypg and 12th in rushing at 249.2 ypg. Only the Ohio State Buckeyes (51 ppg) scores more than Oklahoma’s 48.4 ppg.

Both teams can roll on the offensive side of the ball, but it will be the defenses that called upon for a big stop late in the game.

Which Team’s Defense Will Show Up?

The Sooners defense has not been a strong unit or a reason for winning this season. They’re giving up 27.6 ppg in conference play and 25 ppg for the year. Furthermore, they’re allowing 354 total yards per game which includes 209.4 ypg through the air and 144.7 rushing ypg.

Even more concerning is the fact that Oklahoma has given up 89 total points in their last two games as they defeated Iowa State last weekend 42-41 and lost to Kansas State two weeks ago by the score of 48-41. Baylor played Kansas State last month and soundly beat them 31 to 12 on the road.

Baylor’s defense leads the Big 12 conference in points allowed at 21 ppg. That’s up slightly from their 19 ppg average on the season. The most points they’ve allowed was 30 to Texas Tech and that was a double overtime shootout.

Baylor has the better defense on paper, but will it be enough to slow down this juggernaut of an offense?

Quarterback Play Will Be The Difference

Although Baylor’s offense doesn’t score at the rate of Oklahoma, they still find ways to win the game. Quarterback Charlie Brewer is a big reason why. He’s had a solid season with 2,338 passing yards, 16 TDs, and 4 INTs.

He’s put most of those numbers up in home games with 1,298 yards, 11 TDs, 3 INTs, and a 156.3 rating. Even in their low scoring home contest against West Virginia two weeks ago, Brewer still threw for 277 yards and 2 TDs in a 17-14 win. He will need a strong performance this weekend as his counterpart has been stellar on the road.

Oklahoma quarterback Jalen Hurts has played three road games this season and has tallied 1,147 yards, 9 TDs, 2 INTs, and a 191.9 rating. However, he did lose one of those three games when the Sooners fell at Kansas State.

In this QB battle, Oklahoma has to like their chances. Hurts is a Heisman Trophy candidate while Brewer is still trying to earn his stripes just like the Baylor football team. Additionally, Hurts has also tallied 869 rushing yards with 15 TDs on the ground.

Hurts is 3rd in the nation with a 73.3 completion percentage. However, he leads the country in QB rating at 219.7. If that weren’t enough to convince you of Hurts’ elite level skills then maybe this will: Hurts is 7th in the nation with 15 rushing touchdowns and 27th in rushing yards at 869 ypg.

Hurts will be the ultimate difference maker in this contest. I believe this will be a close game, but Oklahoma will pull away late or hold on to whatever lead they have late in the 4th quarter. I expect Hurts to put up monster numbers and outplay Brewer.

Although I am picking Oklahoma to win, Baylor will play a tough game and cover the spread. Baylor is 11-5 ATS when playing winning teams and 6-4 ATS in their last 10 meetings against Oklahoma. The Sooners have given up 89 points in their last two games against inferior teams and are 2-7 ATS as a road favorite.

Rick Rockwell

As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site. ...

View all posts by Rick Rockwell
Email the author at: [email protected]