Green Bay at Cincinnati Pick – Cincinnati Bengals (+135)
The Green Bay Packers take a three-game winning streak on the road to face the surprising Cincinnati Bengals. It’s a clash between two 3-1 teams, one a tradition power, and the other hoping to climb back up to the elite after many years of struggles.
You’ve also got a fun matchup of quarterbacks, with veteran star Aaron Rodgers for the Packers taking on fast-rising Joe Burrow for the Bengals. The action starts with a 1 PM Eastern Time kickoff at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio.
Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals Game Preview
The Packers and Bengals, as nonconference opponents, don’t play each other all that often. It’s usually every four years or so that they meet up as the NFL schedule makes its way around the bend. In a series that began back in 1971, Cincinnati holds a slight edge of 7 wins against 6 for the Packers.
Green Bay’s season started off in somewhat ominous fashion, as they suffered an absolute clunker of a loss to New Orleans. But Aaron Rodgers and company have looked sharp since then, sandwiching blowout wins over Detroit and Pittsburgh around a last-second thriller of a win over the 49ers.
Cincinnati is shaping up as one of the surprising teams in the NFL, especially if they can keep up the momentum from their 3-1 start. Granted, two of those victories came on last-second field goals. But optimism is still high, even as they compete in one of the toughest divisions in football.
Opening Odds and Line Movement for Game
Green Bay opened up as a three-point favorite in the early wagering (before last week’s games were played.) After both teams won their games last week, the fresh line came in at +4 for the Packers. But the Bengals backers have now pushed the line back down to 3 points at press time.
On Monday, the over/under line was established at 49 points. But it didn’t take long for that line to go in an upward trajectory. It has risen a significant 2 ½ points to where it currently stands at 51.5, with the potential for it to go even higher while bettors await some injury reports on key players in this game.
<A Packers win in 2017 snapped a three-game winning streak by the Bengals in this series
Just one of the last eight games in this series has been decided by more than a touchdown
The Bengals have covered the spread the last two times these teams have met
Cincinnati has won the last two games they’ve played against the Packers at home
The over bet has been the correct one in the last three Green Bay-Cincinnati games
Green Bay Betting Trends
Green Bay has covered the spread in their last three games after losing against the spread in their 2021 opener
Going back to last season, Green Bay has covered the spread in 75 percent of their last eight games
The Pack has covered the spread in 11 of their last 15 games in contests played against the AFC
They’ve been sharp as well against the AFC North, with a 9-4 record over them against the spread in the last 13 games
The Packers have covered 87 percent of their games played in October over the last three seasons
Green Bay is five games over .500 in the last three years when playing as the favorite
In 18 games on the road since 2019, the Packers have covered the spread in 11 occasions
75 percent of the last eight games played by Green Bay has gone over the projected total
Cincinnati Bengals Betting Trends
The Bengals have won their first two games in Cincinnati this season, covering in one of those games
The Bengals have seen four of their last five contests go under the projected over/under spread
Four of their last six games played in Cincinnati have also gone under
The Bengals have been excellent against the NFC North over the recent seasons, winning 67 percent of their last 18 games
In their last seven Bengal games played against the NFC, the over has come in on just a single occasion
In the Bengals last six games as an underdog, they have covered the spread on 67 percent of those occasions
Going back to last year, the Bengals have won five of their last seven games
The only one of their games that went over the projected number for the over/under so far this season was one that Cincinnati played at home
Free Bet and Game Prediction:
Key injuries could have a bearing on the outcome of this contest. For Green Bay, the big news is a shoulder injury that could knock out their star cornerback Jaire Alexander. Alexander is a big reason why this team is the top ten in both opponent passing yards per game and passing yards per play this year.
The timing couldn’t be worse, as the Bengals come in with a top trio of receivers. Tee Higgins should be back after missing two games, Tyler Boyd is coming off his best game of the season, and Ja’Marr Chase should be in the running for Rookie of the Year. Losing Alexander really hurts in this game.
But the Bengals don’t want a one-dimensional, which is why they’re 30th in passes per game. Their efforts to keep that balance going could be damaged if Joe Mixon misses the game. The Packers pass rush has been mediocre to this point, but they’ll be aided if they don’t have to worry about the run.
Bengals’ RB Joe Mixon was diagnosed with a low-grade ankle sprain that will leave him week to week, per source.
What’s being overlooked about the Bengals so far has been the play of their defense. They come into the Packer game eighth in defensive scoring, seventh in yards and fifth in yards per play. Key additions like Trey Hendrickson have meshed well with some young up-and comers on the unit.
When they face the Packers, they’ll be facing the best offense they’ve seen since the opener against Minnesota. Green Bay is one those teams that knows how to take what the defense gives you, whether it’s the run with Aaron Jones or the pass with Rodgers tossing to Davante Adams and his buddies.
This feels like a true barometer game for the Bengals, and if you looked at these teams on paper right now with the names “Green Bay” and “Cincinnati” attached, this game looks even. The loss of Alexander tips the balance to Cincinnati, who should be able to deliver the upset win at home and open some eyes.
Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals 30, Green Bay Packers 24
Jim Beviglia joined Gamblingsites.org as a staff writer in 2018, parlaying his years of freelance writing into contributions on a number of different topics. He handles the sport of horse racing for GamblingSites.org and the intersection between the worlds of cryptocurrency and online gambling in a weekly blog.
For his full-time job, Jim handles the television and track announcing duties at a h ...
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