On Thursday, August 22nd, the Green Bay Packers and the Oakland Raiders head north of the border as they travel to Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada, for their Week 3 preseason game. The Packers are coming off a home loss, while the Raiders remain undefeated in exhibition games. It will be interesting to see how the Canadian fans treat two of the NFL’s most marketable franchises. Kickoff inside IG Field for the Packers vs Raiders game is at 8 PM ET.
|Betting Data||Green Bay Packers||Oakland Raiders|
|2019 S/U Preseason Record||1-1||2-0|
|2018 ATS Home||4-4||4-3|
|2018 ATS Away||2-5-1||2-7|
|2018 O/U Home||4-4||3-4|
|2018 O/U Away||4-4||3-5-1|
Thursday’s matchup will be the 12th time these two teams have played against each other in the preseason. Currently, the Raiders hold a 6-5 advantage over the Packers in preseason action. This will be the fourth time they’ve played against each other in the last six preseasons. Last year, the Raiders won at home 13-6 over Green Bay in the preseason. Green Bay has the advantage in regular season and post season action as they hold an 8-5 record against Oakland including a victory in Super Bowl II.
Not only are these two teams playing in Canada, at a stadium that only holds 33,000 fans, they will face each other during Week 7 of the 2019 regular season. So, there are questions as to how much of the playbook we will see from each team.
Green Bay (1-1) hasn’t seen Aaron Rodgers take the field for preseason action yet. There’s a small chance that he plays on Thursday. Even if he does, it will be just for a series before he turns the offensive reins over to Kizer and Boyle. Green Bay is 2-0 when playing outside of the US in preseason games. Can they make it 3-0?
Oakland (2-0) has been a pleasant surprise so far. They’ve defeated both the Rams and the Cardinals in their first two preseason games and have done so without some of their star players on the field. This week, most of the starters are expected to play including QB Derek Carr who saw some action against the Cardinals last week. Oakland opened up a big lead with their starters and second stringers before cruising to victory. Can the Raiders put on another dominant performance for the second straight week?
The spread for this game opened even with most NFL betting sites. However, it has seen a sharp movement as the Packers are now a three-point favorite with most online betting sites. The over/under opened as high as 43 points with a few sports betting sites before dropping to the current o/u of 39.5 total points.
Green Bay comes into Week 3 of the preseason looking unimpressive. Yes, they won their first game, but none of the starters on either team played. It was a battle of backups. Last week, many of the Packers starters were outplayed by the Ravens starters. Green Bay was down 13-6 at halftime and it could’ve been more if the refs didn’t call back a Baltimore TD in the first quarter.
Green Bay has to be concerned about their lack of offensive production. In two games, they’ve averaged only 231.5 total yards per game. Even more concerning is their lack of rushing success. Last week, Green Bay only ran for 55 yards on the ground. In two preseason games, they’re averaging just 76 rushing yards per game.
Defensively, Green Bay is allowing 26 ppg and 377.5 total yards per game. That bodes well for the Raiders who just put up 33 points on the road at Arizona last week. Additionally, Oakland is averaging 254 passing yards per game, and I expect that success to carry over this week.
The Raiders have outscored both of their opponents by a combined score of 33 to 13 in the first half. Green Bay has given up a total of 23 points in the first half of both preseason games. I expect these trends to continue as well. The Raiders starters will play longer in the first half, which means they should score more points. Last week, Oakland put up 17 points in the first quarter against the Cardinals.
The Packers are 1-12 SU in their last 13 road games, 2-5-1 ATS in road games last year, 4-8 SU in their last 12 overall games, and 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games on field turf. The Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games and 5-1 SU in their last six games during August.
I have a hard time thinking that the Packers are going to win this game without Aaron Rodgers playing at least a quarter. Unfortunately, all signs are pointing to Rodgers not playing this Thursday. If the head coach makes a last-minute decision to play Rodgers against the Raiders, then don’t expect it to be for more than one series.
I believe the Raiders will play Carr and the offensive starters for at least a full quarter if not most of the first half. Additionally, the Raiders’ starting defense has looked great so far. Backup QBs Glennon and Peterman have outplayed Green Bay’s backups Kizer and Boyle this preseason. I expect that trend to continue on Thursday night as well. I believe the Raiders can win this game outright, but the safe play is taking the three points.
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