Padres at Giants MLB Pick for September 25

by Taylor Smith
on September 25, 2018

Minute Read

San Diego Padres (-105)
San Francisco Giants (-105)
Total: 7

The San Diego Padres are bad. The San Francisco Giants are bad. These are both fair statements. The Giants are actually 9 games ahead of the Padres for fourth place in the National League West, but at this stage of the season I would say it’s San Francisco that’s actually the worse ball club. The Giants will enter Tuesday’s clash with the Padres as losers of 5 consecutive games, a stretch not far removed from another losing streak of 11 games.

The primary reason for the Giants’ late-season collapse has been that they just don’t have the horses. Andrew McCutchen was traded to the New York Yankees late last month. Buster Posey and Brandon Belt – arguably the two best hitters on the team – have both already undergone season-ending surgeries. At this point, the team’s everyday lineup resembles a Triple-A lineup more than an actual big league outfit. On Monday, the team parted ways with its general manager. Things aren’t great!

The Padres haven’t been much better, but at least they’re healthy. Bryan Mitchell and Kirby Yates combined to shut out San Francisco on Monday night on just 7 hits in an eventual 5-0 San Diego victory. Bryan Mitchell is about as average as they come, yet he came to within one out of a complete game shutout against this hapless Giants lineup.

Left-hander Robbie Erlin will look to follow in Mitchell’s footsteps for the Pads on Tuesday opposite right-hander Chris Stratton for the Giants.

Erlin has been passable in a limited stint in the San Diego rotation thus far. The lefty has pitched in 38 games on the season, 11 of which have been starts. He doesn’t come with the longest leash in the world, but he has a 20.1 percent strikeout rate on the season alongside a tiny walk rate under 3 percent. The hard contact rate allowed of 36 percent is suboptimal, but his 3.52 SIERA is quite a bit more impressive than his 4.33 ERA.

Erlin has allowed only 11 homers in 104 innings of work this season, and he’ll be taking on the aforementioned watered-down version of the Giants tonight. AT&T Park is one of the worst parks in the league for hitters, so Erlin will be getting a park upgrade over the already pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Assuming he’s able to navigate Evan Longoria, who is essentially the lone capable bat left in this lineup, Erlin should be in for a fine outing tonight. The Padres also quietly have one of the best bullpens in all of baseball backing him up, so I’m a bit surprised San Francisco is favored in this spot.

Stratton has been pretty mediocre on the season, and his two most recent starts were like night and day. Two starts ago at home against the Rockies, Stratton threw a complete game shutout during which he allowed just 2 hits and struck out 7. Last time out, he was blasted to the tune of 5 runs on 6 hits in just 3 innings of work against these vey Padres in San Diego.

Overall, Stratton has a 4.88 ERA and a 4.61 SIERA so far this season. The righty has a middling 18.1 percent strikeout rate and he has allowed hard hits at an unsightly 41 percent clip. He has also allowed 18 total homers, 11 of which have come off the bats of left-handed hitters. Stratton has also yielded a hefty .350 wOBA to lefties.

The San Diego lineup isn’t exactly littered with capable left-handed hitters, but this offense is just flat-out better than the one the Giants are rolling out there these days. Hunter Renfroe has really started to come into his own as the season has progressed, while Wil Myers, Francisco Mejia, Eric Hosmer and Franmil Reyes are all solid hitters with a little bit of power.

I just think this sets up as a strong spot to bet on the Padres. You can get the Padres at -105 on the moneyline over at BetOnline, while they’re also at -240 to cover the 1 1/2 runline. Obviously, the better value is betting on the moneyline, so that’s where I’d wager them tonight. Take San Diego to win this one.

Pick: Padres

$100 stake could win...

Taylor Smith

Taylor Smith has been a staff writer with since early 2017. Taylor is primarily a sports writer, though he will occasionally dabble in other things like politics and entertainment betting. His primary specialties are writing about the NBA, Major League Baseball, NFL and domestic and international soccer. Fringe sports like golf and horse racing aren’t exactly his cup of tea, but he’s willing to take one for the team on that front every now and then.

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