On Sunday, the New England Patriots head to the west coast with the goal of keeping their Playoff hopes alive in a crucial matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers.
The Patriots are currently two games back of the final Wild Card spot in the AFC and need a win this weekend to try and make up ground. The Chargers have been playing well offensively this season, but their defense is a liability.
Can the Chargers derail New England’s march toward the Playoffs or will the Patriots be able to pick up a big road win on Sunday? Kickoff inside SoFi Stadium is at 4:25PM ET.
The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:
|New England Patriots||Pick||-113||Over 47 (-110)|
|Los Angeles Chargers||Pick||-107||Under 47 (-110)|
|Betting Data||New England Patriots||Los Angeles Chargers|
|2020 ATS Home||4-2||2-3|
|2020 ATS Away||1-4||2-3-1|
|2020 O/U Home||1-5||3-2|
|2020 O/U Away||3-2||4-2|
These two AFC teams have played against each other 42 times with the Patriots leading the all-time series at 25-15-2. They last played in the Playoffs for the 2018 season (January 2019) and New England won 41 to 28. The Patriots have won five in a row and eight of the last nine head to head meetings.
New England is 11-7-1 when playing at the Chargers and have won three of the last four games on the road in this series.
The spread opened with the Chargers favored by 2.5 points. Since then, the line moved to the Chargers getting one point before coming back down to Even with most NFL betting sites. The Over/Under opened at 49 points before coming down to an O/U of 47 total points with most online betting sites.
This isn’t going to be a cakewalk for the Patriots despite the Chargers having the 3rd worst record in the AFC. Instead, this will be a tough matchup where the better team on Sunday will win.
The Patriots have gone 3-1 in their last four games including wins over Arizona and Baltimore. They could be 6-5 if it weren’t for a poor showing at Houston in Week 11.
Nevertheless, the Patriots do have some advantages heading into this matchup. For starters, they have a top notch passing defense that allows only 238.3 passing yards per game. They will need that defense to play well against the Chargers’ passing attack that averages 293.4 ypg.
As Buffalo showed in Week 12, Herbert might get his passing yards, but they’re not as meaningful if the Chargers can’t convert the passing success into touchdowns.
Against Buffalo, the Chargers could only muster up 17 points, which is their lowest output since Week 3 against the Panthers when they scored 16 points. This bodes well for the Patriots who held the Cardinals and the Ravens to just 17 points apiece.
The Chargers defense is giving up 120.5 rushing yards per game, which is good news for the Patriots who average 149.6 rushing ypg. I expect New England to find success on the ground which will also keep the high scoring Chargers offense off the field.
Despite struggling on the road this year (1-4 SU), I am picking the Patriots to win on Sunday mostly due to being the more desperate team. A loss this weekend would mathematically eliminate them from winning the AFC East and it would put them 3 games back of the Wild Card spot with four games left.
New England still has to play the Rams, Dolphins and the Bills before finishing up against the Jets. They need this win to keep their Playoff hopes on life support.
I’m taking Bill Belichick, Cam Newton, and this Patriots defense to pull out a hard fought win over the Chargers.
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