After three weeks, the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs look like the best team in the NFL. After what they did to Baltimore on MNF in Week 3, the Chiefs look absolutely unbeatable. Up next for KC is the former king of the AFC the New England Patriots.
Can Bill Belichick and the Patriots slow down Mahomes and the Chiefs powerful offense or will the Patriots get steamrolled like the rest of the teams that KC has played so far? Kickoff inside Arrowhead Stadium is at 4:25PM ET.
The following odds are courtesy of MyBookie:
|New England Patriots||+7 (+115)||+260||Over 54 (-105)|
|Kansas City Chiefs||-7 (-105)||-320||Under 54 (-115)|
|Betting Data||New England Patriots||Kansas City Chiefs|
|2020 ATS Home||2-0||1-0|
|2020 ATS Away||0-1||1-1|
|2020 O/U Home||1-1||1-0|
|2020 O/U Away||1-0||0-2|
Kansas City and the Patriots have played against each other 38 times and it’s the Chiefs holding the all-time advantage at 19-16-3. The Chiefs won the last meeting in December 2019 by the score of 23 to 16. Each team has won three times in the last six head to head matchups.
The spread opened with the Chiefs favored by 8 and went as high as 9 points before settling at 7 points with most NFL betting sites. The Over/Under opened at 53.5 total points and remains unchanged with most online betting sites.
New England’s best chance at winning this game is by running the ball and controlling the clock. Kansas City is giving up 153 rushing ypg, which bodes well for a Patriots offense that leads the league with 178 rushing ypg. They’re also 7th in the league for time of possession.
Although it’s clear that this is the Patriots’ only path to victory, it’s easier said than done. That’s because the Chiefs are scoring 30.3ppg which is 5th best in the NFL. They’re the 4th ranked passing offense at 299.3 ypg and the 8th ranked rushing attack at 141 ypg.
This offensive balance has made the Chiefs even more dangerous as it takes pressure off QB Patrick Mahomes and makes their play-action arguably the most dangerous in the league.
Once the Chiefs put their foot on the gas pedal, I don’t see the Patriots being able to keep up. This game might be close for a quarter, but the Chiefs will open up the scoring and eventually pull away in the second half.
As we saw in Week 2, the Patriots got into a shootout at Seattle and came up short at the end of the game. Although they’re capable of throwing the ball, it’s not their strength. And, they definitely don’t want to get into a passing war with the Chiefs.
KC won’t have to double team any of the Patriots receivers, which means they can stack the box and spy on Cam Newton. Furthermore, Chris Ford is right up there with Aaron Donald as the best interior defensive lineman in the league. He will make it tough for the Patriots to sit back and throw.
I don’t see how the Patriots are going to slow down the Chiefs offense and I definitely don’t see New England outscoring the Chiefs.
KC has won each game by an average of 10 points and I believe they will do the same in Week 4 against the Patriots. I’m taking the Chiefs to cover the seven point spread and remain unbeaten on the season while dropping the Pats to 2-2.
The Chiefs are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 overall games, 22-9 ATS in their last 31 AFC games, and 11-4 ATS versus the 15 AFC East over the last three years.
Mahomes and company will cross the 30 point threshold once again while the Patriots will struggle to score more than 24 points. Where Seattle let New England hang around and almost win the game in the end, I don’t see the Chiefs making that mistake.
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