On Sunday, the New England Patriots will head down to Florida to take on a feisty Jacksonville Jaguars team. This is a rematch of the AFC title game that saw New England hold on for the win. The Jags have been waiting since January for another shot at the Pats, and they will get their chance this weekend. Kickoff inside EverBank Field is at 4:25 PM ET.
|Betting Data History||New England Patriots||Jacksonville Jaguars|
|2018 ATS Home||1-0||0-0|
|2018 ATS Away||0-0||1-0|
|2018 O/U Home||0-1||0-0|
|2018 O/U Away||0-0||0-1|
Since 1996, the Patriots and Jaguars have played against each other 12 times. New England holds the advantage in this series 11-1. As mentioned above, these two teams squared off in the AFC title game back in January. The Patriots won that game 24-20. Overall, the Patriots are 3-1 at Jacksonville.
New England (1-0) is playing their second consecutive game against the AFC South division as they defeated the Houston Texans 27-20 last Sunday. The Patriots relied on their combo of Brady and Gronk to beat a solid Texans defense. This week, they go up against another solid defense that proved their mettle in the AFC title game in Foxborough. Will New England continue their winning ways over the Jags?
Jacksonville (1-0) won on the road last Sunday as they defeated a talented New York Giants team. Now, the Jags return home and hope to get revenge on the Patriots for the loss in the AFC title game. The big question heading into this weekend’s contest is whether or not Jacksonville’s top RB Leonard Fournette will be able to play. He injured his hamstring in the opening game and his availability for this battle remains unknown at this time.
The spread opened with New England favored by 1 point. It has since gone up to 2 points. The Over/Under opened at 45 total points and remains unchanged.
The Patriots opened up the season with a solid win over the Houston Texans. Not only did they play typical New England football on the offensive side of things, but they also had a strong defensive showing. Keep in mind, it was 27 to 13 before Houston scored with 2 minutes left in the game. Also, that score was set up by a fumbled punt return, which gave Houston the ball at the Patriots 16 yard line.
Houston got the ball again with less than a minute left in the game and moved it 42 yards. These 58 yards in the final two minutes of play put their game total to 325. Otherwise, the Texans would’ve only had 267 total yards, less than 20 first downs, and less points. This is just a good example of how well the Patriots defense played against a talented offense.
This weekend, the Patriots will play against an offense that’s lacking any real firepower and may even miss their top running back in Leonard Fournette who left the Giants game with an injured hamstring. Jacksonville only scored 13 points on offense against the Giants last Sunday, as their defense returned an interception for a TD to seal the win at 20 to 15. For the Jags to win against the Patriots, they will need at least two touchdowns from the defense.
I don’t see the Jacksonville offense scoring more than 13 points this weekend against the Patriots. Also, if the Jags defense can give up 324 yards to the Giants then I believe they’re in trouble against New England.
On the road, the Patriots are 14-1 SU and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games. Just like this weekend, they were the favorites in all 15 of those games. Furthermore, the Patriots are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 overall games, 14-2 SU in their last 16 games, 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS when the line is +3 to -3, 10-2 ATS when playing on grass, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games during September, 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS when the total is between 42.5 and 45 points on the road.
The Jags are 6-9 SU and 6-8 ATS when the spread is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons, 0-3 SU and 0-2 ATS when an underdog of 3 points or less at home, 7-14 SU over their last 21 games as an underdog, 5-9 ATS over their last 14 home games, 3-4 SU and 3-3 ATS in their last 7 games during September.
I believe Jacksonville’s offense will struggle this weekend and they will force their elite defense to be on the field for too long. This will allow New England’s offense to have more possessions and eventually crack the Jags’ code. They will wear down Jacksonville’s defense and finally open up the scoring in the second half.
I expect this game to be relatively close at halftime before New England pulls away. Jacksonville could get a late game score just like Houston did in order to make it appear closer, but the Patriots should win this game and easily cover the 2 point spread.
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