Categories: NBA

Pelicans at Warriors – NBA Pick for May 8th

Raise your hand if you saw that blowout coming in Game 4, especially after how amazing the Pelicans played in Game 3. I became a believer in the Pelicans after Game 3, only to be made a fool of in Game 4. Golden State dominated the Pelicans 118-92 for their second 20+ point victory of the series. But, here’s where I think the Pelicans have a shot at covering the spread tonight. After Game 1, when the Warriors won by 22, the Pelicans bounced back and only lost by 5 in Game 2 at Golden State. Then they come home and beat Golden State by 19 in Game 3.

The point to all of that is – I believe they have what it takes to bounce back in Game 5 to make it a competitive contest. In Game 4, the Pelicans hurt themselves as much as Golden State hurt them. New Orleans shot 36.4% from the floor, 15.4% from 3-point line, turned the ball over 19 times and only had 17 assists. These are horrible numbers and indicative of how the Pelicans shot themselves in the foot during Game 4. I don’t see them duplicating that poor performance again.

I believe the Pelicans will come closer to their Game 2 performance when they shot 45.7% from the floor, 35.1% from 3-point line, had 13 turnovers and 33 assists. They also forced 16 turnovers in Game 2, but only forced 11 turnovers in Game 4.

Another reason why I like New Orleans to bounce back and have a better performance is that they had some poor outings from key contributors in Game 4. Rondo only mustered up 6 assists in Game 4, when he had been averaging 14.6 apg in the series. Nikola Mirotic only had 7 points, which was down from his 17 ppg the previous 2 games. As for the main weapon in the Pelicans offense, Anthony Davis continued his streak of double-doubles by scoring 26 points and pulling down 12 rebounds. However, for the Pelicans to compete in Game 5, they will need a bigger performance from Davis – something like his Game 3 totals where he had 33 points and 18 rebounds.

For the Warriors, they were led by Kevin Durant in Game 4 as the talented big man finished with 38 points on 15-of-27 shooting. He also had 9 rebounds and 5 assists. Durant was a one-man wrecking crew and the Pelicans had no answer for him. The rest of Golden State’s starting unit combined for 50 points. In the first 2 home games of the series, Durant averaged 27.5 ppg, 9.5 rpg, and 4.5 apg. If New Orleans can slow down Durant then they have a chance.

Golden State’s Klay Thomspon hasn’t been as dominating at home this series only averaging 18.5 ppg, 6 rpg and 2.5 apg. His shooting was awful in the first two games of the series as he went 14-of-42 from the floor and 6-of-20 from downtown. Another positive for the Pelicans.

Furthermore, why I like the Pelicans and the points tonight is because of Golden State’s struggles with covering spreads. In their last 10 home games, the Warriors are 3-7 ATS. They’re also 2-4 ATS in their last 6 overall games. But, it gets even worse. The Warriors are 1-9 ATS on Tuesday nights, 3-4 ATS when leading a series, 16-23 ATS after winning by 10 points or more, 19-31 ATS when playing teams with winning records, and 9-20 ATS versus these winning teams over the 2nd half of the season.

The Pelicans are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games, and 14-8 ATS in road games where the total is over 220 points.

For the series, the Warriors have averaged 115.5 ppg and the Pelicans have averaged 107 ppg. In their last 10 head-to-head meetings, the Warriors scored 118.1 ppg and the Pelicans scored 109.4 ppg.

The last numbers I will throw at you: Golden State went 39-51-1 ATS this year and 19-26-1 ATS at home. The Pelicans went 51-38-1 ATS this year and 29-16 ATS on the road.

Bet: Pelicans +11.5 points (-105)

Rick Rockwell

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Rick Rockwell

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