Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins – Free MLB Pick for May 31st

By in MLB on
Philadelphia Phillies (+115)
Miami Marlins(-135)
Total: 8

The scuffling Philadelphia Phillies took yet another blow on Tuesday when fireballing right-hander Vince Velasquez was forced to leave his start early due to injury. They’ll look to rebound on Wednesday night in Miami with Aaron Nola on the hill against Dan Straily and the Marlins.

Nola is coming off his own tough start against the Reds. He lasted six innings, but surrendered five runs on six hits, including two homers, in the 5-2 defeat. That outing was something of an outlier for him this season, though. Nola has allowed three runs or fewer in three of his five starts to this point, though the Phils have been able to win just two of the five games in which he’s pitched. He’s in an excellent spot tonight, though. The Fish have struggled mightily against right-handed pitching this season, ranking 21st in wOBA and 17th in home runs.

The Phillies’ bats will have to deal with Dan Straily, who has quietly emerged as a very solid option atop Don Mattingly’s rotation this season. The veteran has a 3.83 ERA across his 10 starts in his first season in Miami, and he’s done a very solid job of limiting damage against hitters from both sides of the plate. Philadelphia has been one of the most punchless offenses in all of baseball this season, ranking near the bottom of the league in just about every offensive category.

Vegas has tabbed this game with an implied total of eight runs. While that’s not a huge total by any means, we still think it’s too high for this contest. Neither of these lineups is anything to really fear, and this game is going down in one of the best pitcher’s parks in the game. Two above-average pitchers will also be toeing the rubber, so it’s difficult to see where the offense is going to come from.

Neither Nola nor Straily is a full-on ace at this point, though, so it’s not like either pitcher is immune to a blow-up. Still, this just has the makings of a game in which runs will be scarce. The Phillies have won just two of their last 11 games overall, and they haven’t been doing much damage with the bats in that span. Philly has scraped just three runs together across the first two games of this series with the Marlins, and Straily will be the best starting pitcher they’ve faced to this point.

In case you haven’t gotten the idea yet, we’re wanting you to bet on the under here. The Marlins have been swinging the bats pretty well lately, but they also haven’t faced a starter of Nola’s capability during their little three-game winning streak.

We think Miami wins this game, but it’ll be a low-scoring affair. Hit the under on eight total runs.
Taylor Smith

Taylor Smith has been a staff writer with since early 2017. Taylor is primarily a sports writer, though he will occasionally dabble in other things like politics and entertainment betting. His primary specialties are writing about the NBA, Major League Baseball, NFL and domestic and international soccer. Fringe sports like golf and horse racing aren’t exactly his cup of tea, bu ...

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