Philadelphia Phillies at New York Yankees: MLB Pick for July 21

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Phillies at Yankees MLB
Phillies vs Yankees Pick – Over 10 Runs (-116)

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The New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies aren’t traditional rivals considering they play in different leagues, but the two teams do have a history. The Yankees beat the Phillies back in the 2009 World Series, and there has always been some sort of rivalry between the cities of New York and Philly. Yankee Stadium and Citizens Bank Park are only about 100 miles apart from one another, so the Phillies were well represented in the crowd in Tuesday’s series opener between the teams.

The two teams will play the finale of their two-game mini-set on tonight in the Bronx. The shorthanded Yankees handed Aaron Nola a rare defeat in a 6-4 victory on Tuesday, and the Phils will look to bounce back and earn a split tonight. Lefty Matt Moore is listed as the probable starter for the Phillies in this one, while the Yankees will counter with new callup Asher Wojciechowski. The Yanks are slight -107 moneyline favorites in a game with an over/under of 10 runs according to experts at BetOnline.

Woj Time for Yankees

The Yankees are in a bad way right now. New York has a number of key players on the COVID list, with Aaron Judge and Gio Urshela among those away from the team for the time being. The Yankees were also forced to scratch DJ LeMahieu from last night’s lineup with an apparent stomach virus, while Luke Voit, Miguel Andujar, Tim Locastro, and Clint Frazier are all on the injured list. 

The Yankees are also shorthanded in the rotation, which is why the team has called up right-hander Asher Wojciechowski to start tonight’s game. Wojciechowski last appeared in the majors last season with the Orioles, and this will be his first outing in pinstripes. The veteran has a career 5.95 ERA across four major league seasons with Baltimore, Houston, and Cincinnati to this point. 

Woj isn’t much of a strikeout pitcher, and he has a career fly ball rate of 50 percent. Fly balls have a way of becoming home runs at Yankee Stadium thanks to the tiny outfield dimensions, particularly in right field. And, unlike the Yankees, the Phillies are playing near full strength offensively. Woj will have to deal with a lineup adding a DH to the mix tonight. Between Bryce Harper, Didi Gregorius, Rhys Hoskins, JT Realmuto, and Andrew McCutchen, there are no shortage of power bats here capable of giving Wojciechowski some issues.

Woj struggled tremendously with home runs during his time with the Orioles, so a move to Yankee Stadium likely won’t do him many favors in that regard. I know the Yankees are desperate, but it’s safe to say that resorting to Wojciechowski likely isn’t the answer they’re looking for.

Can the Yankees’ Bats Keep Them Afloat? 

Given the state of the starting rotation, scoring runs will be vital to the Yankees’ chances of survival in this one. Philly is a pretty good bet to do some damage against Woj tonight, so it’ll be incumbent on New York’s bats to try and keep up. 

Fortunately for the Yankees, the Phillies are facing an uncertain pitching situation of their own. Philadelphia hasn’t confirmed a starter for tonight’s game, but Moore is the most likely candidate to get the nod. If not, Joe Girardi will likely roll with a bullpen game here. 

As is the case with Wojciechowski, Moore is a fly ball pitcher that has given up his fair share of dingers over the years. So far this season, the southpaw has a 5.25 ERA across 13 appearances for the Phillies, with seven homers allowed. New York’s current lineup hardly resembles the powerful crew that set a new major league record for homers in a season back in 2019, but Moore will still have to navigate some thunderous bats in this one. Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, and Rougned Odor all have well-above-average power numbers against lefties since the beginning of last season, while this is a fine matchup for the struggling Gleyber Torres, as well. 

The Bet

In case you couldn’t tell, this game looks like it’ll have plenty of offensive fireworks. The Phillies are in one of the best matchups imaginable against Woj in a homer-friendly park, while the Yankees still have enough quality bats to give the Phillies’ struggling staff some headaches. I do expect the Phillies to do most of the heavy-lifting in this game, but the over on 10 runs is easily the best way to approach it from a betting perspective.
Philadelphia makes for a solid bet at -103 to win the game outright on the moneyline, but the over on 10 runs at -116 is the preferred wager tonight.

Pick: Over 10 Runs
Odds: -116
$100 Could Win You...$186.21
Taylor Smith

Taylor Smith has been a staff writer with since early 2017. Taylor is primarily a sports writer, though he will occasionally dabble in other things like politics and entertainment betting. His primary specialties are writing about the NBA, Major League Baseball, NFL and domestic and international soccer. Fringe sports like golf and horse racing aren’t exactly his cup of tea, bu ...

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