Pistons vs Spurs – NBA Pick for December 4th
In all honesty, I would have probably refrained from betting on the Spurs the second news broke last night that LaMarcus Aldridge, Tony Parker and Rudy Gay would not be playing. Fortunately, even San Antonio’s spares still made a game of it and ending up beating the spread in Oklahoma City.
A win is a win and that one moves me up to 24-10-2 on the year, while also handing me my second straight victory. I completely understand if anyone went away from that bet once news broke, but due to San Antonio’s coaching system and OKC’s struggles, it still wasn’t a bad bet even with the Spurs under-manned.
Things get a little more intense on Monday night, as the NBA pushes out a huge 11-game slate. There are a lot of injuries to track ahead of tonight’s games, but there are also admittedly a slew of betting paths you can entertain.
For me, one of the best games that pops off the board is a showdown in San Antonio between the Spurs and Detroit Pistons. That’s right, I’m going back to the well with the Spurs, as their top players should be well rested and prepared to battle a solid Detroit team on their home floor.
Vegas does anticipate a close contest, but the Spurs might offer too much value to ignore (-155 at 5Dimes). San Antonio enters with a mild -3.5 spread advantage too, so there will be more than one betting angle to look at.
I like a lot of the action here, as these teams are both defensive-minded and I expect a pretty close game. That puts the Pistons in play to beat the spread and if I’m betting on this Total, I’d favor the Under.
The only bet I love here however, is the Spurs at -155, straight up. To me, that’s an awesome price for a home team that will be pretty much 100% healthy (outside of Kawhi Leonard) and will be well rested after sitting their top players in a loss to the Thunder last night.
Some bettors might be off of the Spurs if they just look at that loss or don’t realize that San Antonio’s key players will actually still be fresh for this one.
I won’t bypass that logic though, while the Spurs as a whole have really worked out for me all year. This remains a very strong and balanced squad that boasts an elite defense (2nd in efficiency), excels at home (10-2) and has been a respectable 12-10-1 against the spread.
The Spurs have the size, balance, defense and home court edge all working in their favor and with LaMarcus Aldridge and company back on the floor, they look like the obvious bet.
The Pistons are still an interesting bet to beat this spread. They have an exceptional record ATS this year (14-7-1) and also can play stellar defense. However, they’re not traditionally a strong road team and have been slipping a bit lately.
Detroit started the season hot, but they’ve dropped two straight games and are just 5-5 over their last 10 games. A 6-6 road record this year doesn’t do them any favors, while the Pistons really don’t have anyone that should be able to silence Ridge in this one.
Only hurting Detroit’s chances is their performance in this specific series. The Pistons have lost five straight to the Spurs and to make matters worse, have won at San Antonio just once in their last 7 tries.
The Spurs are fresh, at home and are the more balanced and disciplined team. I don’t hate them to cover the spread, but the value is similar with them as a straight up bet and in what should still be a tight game, I’ll just take the Spurs to win.