Purdue at Iowa college football pick

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Purdue Boilermakers at Iowa Hawkeyes Pick – Iowa (-450)
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The Big Ten race heats up on Saturday afternoon when the Purdue Boilermakers visit the Iowa Hawkeyes in an important clash. Iowa is riding high, both on the field and in the rankings, as they’ve risen all the way to #2 in the country thanks to their unbeaten start.

Now that they’ve risen so high in the rankings, Iowa has to be ready for the best shots of upset-minded Purdue, who come in hungry for a signature win. We’ll find out who prevails when the game kicks off on Saturday afternoon at 3:30 PM Eastern Time from Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa.

Live Odds and Betting History

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneylines Totals
Purdue Boilerakers +12 (-115) +360 Over 43 (-105)
Oklahoma Sooners -12 (-105) -450 Under 43 (-115)
Betting Data Purdue Iowa
2021 Record 3-2 6-0
2021 Home 2-1 4-0
2021 Away 1-1 2-0
2021 ATS 2-3 5-1
2021 ATS Home 1-2 3-1
2021 ATS Away 1-1 2-0
2021 O/U 0-5 2-4
2021 O/U Home 0-3 1-3
2021 O/U Away 0-2 1-1

Purdue Iowa Preview

These two Big Ten foes have been playing each other since 1910, and they’ve played every calendar year since 1929. In that time, Purdue has come out on top 49 times compared to 39 wins for Iowa (with three good ties for good measure.) That’s a pretty even rivalry for two teams who have played so often.

Purdue has opened up with a 3-2 record, with some promising results balanced with frustration. After starting 2-0, they fought Notre Dame close until late in the game before relenting. They’ve since split their first two Big Ten games, both close, with a win over Illinois and a loss to Minnesota.

Iowa, on the other hand, seems to be in the midst of a charmed season. Right off the bat, when they took out Top 25 Indiana easily in the openers, their formula of ball-control offense and opportunistic defense was set. Other big wins include stopping rival Iowa State, then in the Top 10, and winning a defensive struggle over previously unbeaten Penn State.

Opening Odds and Line Movement for Game

Despite the rise in exposure of Iowa, the spread has actually moved toward Purdue in the time since the line was posted at the start of the week. It has dropped a full point to where Iowa is now just a 12-point favorite after starting the week favored by 13.

Even with the over/under starting off at 43.5 points, a low number in this day and age in college football, the Hawkeyes defense still has people believing the game will be even lower-scoring. Hence, the over/under has dropped another half-point to where it now sits at 43.

Head to Head Betting Trends

  • Purdue has won three of the last four games they’ve played versus Iowa
  • The Boilermakers have also covered the spread in four straight and in five of the last six games where they’ve battled the Hawkeyes
  • The home team has won the last three games in the series
  • The under has been the right bet in three of the last four games that these two teams have played
  • Purdue has covered the spread in each of the last five games they’ve played against Iowa in Iowa City

Purdue Betting Trends

  • Purdue has started the year off by playing in five straight games that went under the projected point spread
  • Going back to last season, Purdue has covered the spread in only 20 percent of its last 10 games
  • In just four of Purdue’s last 19 road games has the points total gone over the over/under line
  • The Boliermakers haven’t covered the spread in any of their last seven Big Ten games dating back to last year
  • Purdue has thrived as an underdog in recent years against the spread, covering 70 percent of their games as a dog since 2019
  • They’ve struggled on turf, winning just one of their last six turf games in the last three years and covering just two of those games
  • Although they’ve won just one game against a team with a winning record since 2019, Purdue has covered the spread in 83 percent of those contests
  • Purdue has covered the spread in 56 percent of their road games over the past three years

Iowa Betting Trends

  • Iowa has begun the year by covering the spread in five of the first six games that they’ve played
  • Only one of their first four games played at home this year have gone over the projected number
  • The Hawkeyes have covered the spread in their last five games within the Big Ten conference
  • In Iowa games played against the Big Ten West division, the over has been the right bet in just one of the last six
  • As a home favorite of between 10 1/2 and 21 points since 1993, Iowa has covered the spread just 30 percent of the time
  • Iowa has both won 62 percent of its games against teams with winning records the last three years and covered the spread in those games at the same rate
  • Iowa is 12-7 against the spread in Big Ten games since the start of 2019
  • The Hawkeyes have covered 60 percent of their games as a favorite over the past three years

Free Bet and Game Prediction:

Purdue Coach Jeff Brohm has had a difficult time deciding on a quarterback this year, shuffling back and forth between Jack Plummer and Aidan O’Connell. O’Connell has been more explosive, but also more prone to turnovers, with five interceptions in just 100 passing attempts. And that’s not good news against Iowa.

The Hawkeyes defense is creating big plays at an unprecedented rate, with a nation-leading 20 takeaways through six games. If the ball is up for grabs, they’re going to get their hands on it. Watch out for ball-hawks like Riley Moss and Matt Hankins to make big plays if Purdue tries to force it to top receiver David Bell.

Purdue has been a mediocre running team, so it’s likely they don’t do much of that on Saturday. And they’ve also had issues converting in the red zone, which is why they rank much better in yardage then they do in scoring. Iowa’s defense could be in for another banner day.

Purdue’s defense has been more of a unit that bends but doesn’t break. They’re down towards the bottom of the nation in both sacks and takeaways. But they have done a nice job in preventing big plays from opponents, and they are #7 in the country in opponents’ scoring (Iowa comes in at #2.)

Iowa, on the other hand, believes in their defense and will stay patient on offense because of it. Quarterback Spencer Petras doesn’t throw long much, instead dumping off into the flat to running backs and tight ends to play it safe. Running back Tyler Goodson is the bell cow, averaging over 20 carries a game.

That approach has worked very well so far for the Hawkeyes, and it seems destined to produce another win here. But it also means that a big spread might be hard to cover, as long as Purdue doesn’t get careless with the football. Look for a rock fight type of a game to be win by Iowa by less than the spread.

Pick: Iowa
Odds: -450
$100 Could Win You...$122.22

Purdue at Iowa Betting Recap:

  • Oddsmaker: BetOnline
  • Moneylines: Purdue +360, Iowa -450
  • Spread: Purdue +12 (-115), Iowa -12 (-105)
  • Over/Under: 43 (Over -105, Under -115)
  • Prediction: Iowa 23, Purdue 13
Jim Beviglia

Jim Beviglia joined Gamblingsites.org as a staff writer in 2018, parlaying his years of freelance writing into contributions on a number of different topics. He handles the sport of horse racing for GamblingSites.org and the intersection between the worlds of cryptocurrency and online gambling in a weekly blog. For his full-time job, Jim handles the television and track announcing duties at a h ...

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