Raiders vs Broncos – NFL Pick for Sunday, September 16th

by Rick Rockwell
on September 12, 2018
6

Minute Read

On Sunday, the Oakland Raiders head to Colorado to take on the Denver Broncos in an AFC West showdown. Can the Raiders bounce back from their MNF loss or will the Broncos continue riding high at Mile High? Kickoff inside Sports Authority Field at Mile High is at 4:25 PM ET.

Betting Data History Oakland Raiders Denver Broncos
2018 record 0-1 1-0
2018 ATS 0-1 1-0
2018 ATS Home 0-1 0-0-1
2018 ATS Away 0-0 0-0
2018 O/U 0-1 1-0
2018 O/U Home 0-1 1-0
2018 O/U Away 0-0 0-0

Oakland Raiders vs Denver Broncos AFC West Preview

What’s great about this rivalry is that it spans all the way back to the AFL days when these two teams played each other for the first time in 1960. Since then, they’ve gone head-to-head 117 total times including in the postseason. The Raiders currently lead this series 63-52-2. However, the Broncos are 10-3 against the Raiders in the last 13 encounters. Furthermore, Denver is 5-1 against the Raiders at home since 2012.

Oakland (0-1) has been under a microscope with the return of Gruden and some controversial off-season moves. Nevertheless, they came out on Monday night and played a great half of football where they really went toe-to-toe with the Rams. Unfortunately, it all collapsed in the second half and the Raiders ended up losing by 20. Can the Raiders bounce back this weekend against a bitter rival?

Denver (1-0) surprised many fans and pundits with a solid offensive performance against the Seattle Seahawks at home last Sunday. The Broncos were able to move the ball both on the ground and through the air. That was something that the team was incapable of last year. Coming into this weekend, Denver is a big favorite and appears to be better than what many pundits predicted before the season started.

The spread opened at -4.5 for the Broncos. It went as high as -6 before coming back down to -5.5 points. The Over/Under opened at 45 points and has gone up to 46 total points.

NFL Sports Bet and Game Prediction

Despite losing 33-13, the Raiders had a lot of positives to build off of in their game against the Rams. Some of those building blocks are: 303 yards passing, giving up only 233 passing yards, and effectively using the tight end. Unfortunately, there were plenty of things to be concerned about as well, which is why the Raiders are the underdog in this matchup.

The Rams have a great defense, which could attribute to some of the problems for Oakland. However, I believe that LA’s defense was a bit rusty this game as they did allow almost 400 total yards. With that said, the Raiders didn’t even crack 100 yards on the ground and Carr threw 3 picks. Additionally, they were unable to get the ball to their top receiver Cooper.

Denver has a solid defense as well, and they will be at home with the crowd and altitude advantage. I don’t expect Oakland to magically improve between games this week, but I do expect them to keep this contest closer since it is a divisional matchup.

For the Broncos offense, there’s also turnover concerns as Keenum threw 3 picks. However, he also threw 3 TDs, the running game tallied 146 yards, and the offense scored 27 points. All of this was done against a Seahawks defense that’s better than Oakland’s defense.

Denver’s defense held Seattle to just 64 yards on the ground and I see them doing that again this weekend with the Raiders. Additionally, they have a better pass rush than the Rams do and I believe they will cause problems for Carr on Sunday. Ultimately, Denver has most of the advantages in this matchup and they should be able to win this divisional showdown.

Oakland is 1-4-1 ATS in last 6 games, 0-5 SU in last 5 games, 1-5-1 ATS in last 7 road games and 1-6 SU during that span, 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games against Denver, and 8-4 ATS in last 12 games at Denver. Broncos are 2-10-1 ATS in last 13 games, 1-4-1 ATS in last 6 home games, and 3-8 ATS in last 11 divisional games.

As you can see, these ATS numbers are a bit troubling to sort out. Although I believe the Broncos will win, I don’t like a -240 money line for a divisional game. Therefore, I’m going with the Point Total for this matchup.

For the Raiders, The Under is 8-0 in their last 8 games, 4-0 following a double digit home loss, 8-0 in their last 8 grass games, 8-1 in last 9 AFC west games, 4-0 in last 4 Week 2 games, and 4-1 in last 5 games during September. Additionally, the Under is 9-3 in last 12 road games and 7-3-1 when playing on a Sunday after a MNF game. For the Broncos, the Under is 8-1 in their last 9 games against teams with losing records.

Head-to-head, the Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. Furthermore, these two teams have averaged 42 total points in their last 10 overall games against each other, and they have only gone over 46 total points on 3 of the last 13 games in Denver.

I like the Under and I like this game to be controlled by Denver’s defense. I believe Oakland will have some success early in the game with slowing down Denver’s offense, but I believe they will wear down in the second half just like on MNF against the Rams.

Look for Denver to establish their running game and take advantage of a suspect secondary in their 3-wide formations. I’m going with Denver to win this game 27 to 17 and keeping the total Under 46 points.

Raiders vs Broncos Betting Recap

  • Oddsmaker: BetOnline
  • Money lines: Raiders (+200) and Broncos (-240)
  • Spread: Broncos -5.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: 46 total points (-110)
  • Prediction: Denver 27 – Oakland 17
Pick: Under 46
-110

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