Rangers vs. Tigers MLB Pick – July 21, 2021

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Rangers vs. Tigers MLB Pick
Rangers at Tigers Pick: Detroit Tigers (-119)
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The last MLB pick we threw out there was the Tigers to beat the Rangers on the moneyline with -105 odds over at BetUS.com and boy did we cruise to victory there.

Not only did the Tigers touch up Kyle Gibson for the second straight time, this time with eight earned runs, but also got to the Rangers’ bullpen for six more as part of a 14-0 blowout victory.

Certainly not sweating the picks helps and we’ll dive into another Rangers vs. Tigers MLB Pick as Detroit looks for a series-clinching victory tonight.

Rangers vs. Tigers Betting Odds

Odds Texas Rangers Detroit Tigers
Moneyline Odds +109 -119
Runline Odds +1.5 (-175) -1.5 (+155)
Over/Under Odds Over 9.5 (-105) Under 9.5 (-115)

Rangers

It’s been a struggle for this Rangers club of late as they look to snap a seven-game losing streak while avoiding a series loss tonight against the Tigers after being outscored 18-1 through the first two games of this series.

If that’s going to happen, they’ll need Jordan Lyles to pick it up a notch or two as he’s enduring a rough season and is coming off a beatdown his last time out.

Lyles enters this one sporting a 5.20 ERA on the season while his 5.40 FIP, 5.58 xERA, 5.00 xFIP and 4.89 SIERA certainly agree with that subpar park. Home runs have been an issue for Lyles, although his 1.88 HR/9 isn’t all that surprising when you consider his 41.1% fly-ball rate combined with both a 42.2% hard-hit rate and 8.6% barrel rate against. In other words, there’s been plenty of barreled and hard-hit fly-balls coming off the bats of the opposition from Lyles this season.

The work on the road has also been quite poor. Lyles owns a 5.50 ERA on the road this season to go along with a 5.81 FIP and 2.41 HR/9.

His last time out, Lyles was blasted for six earned runs — including four home runs — in just four innings of work against a stout Blue Jays offense while giving up seven hits and three walks in that one as well. Prior to that, he’d allowed just one homer over a four-start stretch, but certainly came crashing down to earth in that one.

Needless to say, he’ll be looking for a rebound effort in this one tonight.

When Will the Bats Come Back to Life?

As noted, the Rangers have scored just one run across the first two games of this series, but the offensive woes actually stretch out further than that.

In fact, that Rangers run in last night’s loss was their first run over their last four games. Yes, you read that right. They were shutout in both ends of a double-header with the Blue Jays before getting shutout 14-0 on Monday in Detroit.

Prior to that scoreless effort across both games of that aforementioned double-header, the Rangers scored three runs over their previous two games. Add it up and Texas has scored four runs over their last six games, good for a cool 0.67 runs per game in that time while losing all seven of those contests.

As a result, they’ll enter this one tied with the Seattle Mariners for 28th with a .296 wOBA on the season. Keep in mind that their current seven-game skid have all come on the road and they’re now tied for 24th with a .289 wOBA on the road.

They’ll take on a right-handed starter in this one tonight, so it’s also worth noting that the Rangers are tied with the Miami Marlins for 26th with a .296 wOBA versus right-handed pitching while the power numbers are just down across the board despite both Joey Gallo and Adolis Garcia having both hit more than 20 home runs so far this season.

Needless to say, the offensive needs to perk up in a big way to avoid a series loss in this one.

Does the Bullpen Recover?

While the Rangers’ bullpen did a solid job in last night’s loss, that group was touched up for six runs in the series opener, and their work since coming out of the All-Star break has been among the worst in baseball.

For the season, the Rangers’ bullpen has turned in a 4.56 ERA which is good for 20th league wide. Considering their injuries before the season was even underway, that’s not the worst mark in the world as it could certainly be worse.

However, since the break, that group has worked to a 6.46 ERA which ranks them 25th in the league. Now, their 3.37 FIP in that time could spell some positive regression, but with just 0.59 homers allowed despite a tiny 34% ground-ball rate, the home runs should show up far more than they have of late moving forward.

The Rangers used five relievers in game one of the series and two more in last night’s loss, so it could be a little bit of a tired group moving into this one tonight.

Tigers

The Tigers are rolling right now as they’ve won their first five games out of the break and will look to make it six behind the right arm of Matt Manning, one of the top pitching prospects in baseball.

Despite that status, it’s been a tough 2021 for Manning. After a couple of solid starts to his big-league career, Manning was shelled for 11 runs in a two-start stretch including just 6.1 innings before another solid start his last time out while working five innings of two-run ball against the Twins.

Detroit Tigers

He’s worked to a 6.95 ERA/6.08 xERA so far this season while his 5.36 FIP, 5.77 xFIP and 5.92 SIERA back up his subpar work. Despite striking out plenty throughout his minor-league career, Manning owns a minuscule 3.68 K/9 in his five MLB starts, a number I suggest will rise significantly moving forward. He’s struck out 10.02 per nine innings in seven Triple-A starts.

The big-league sample size is tiny here, but one thing to keep an eye on his pitch selection. Manning has used his four-seam fastball on 61.8% of his offerings so far, so we’ll see if he mixes it up more in this one tonight.

Pesky Production

If you look at this Tigers offense, you’ll notice that they don’t hit for a lot of home-run power. Their 106 home runs rank 21st in the league and their .152 ISO is tied for 21st. What they do, however, is run the bases aggressively and use small ball to beat you.

For instance, the Tigers scored 14 runs on the Rangers on Monday but homered just once. Only two of those 14 runs came via the long ball. They did, however, rack up 19 hits and simply kept the line moving. They also doubled twice, so 16 of their 19 hits were singles, yet they hung 14 on the Rangers.

As for the speed aspect, the Tigers are tied for fifth with 59 stolen bases on the season, but also sit second with 5 2 steals since May 1. A.J. Hinch knows the team needs to put the pressure on to enjoy offensive success, and they’ve done that in spades.

After a dismal April, the Tigers are tied for 11th with a .322 wOBA since May 1. That ranks among the Braves, Yankees and Reds in that time. They’ve also averaged 7.5 runs per game over their last four.

Overall, the Tigers are tied for 18th with a .304 wOBA against right-handed pitching, but obviously the work has been far superior of late.

Lyles struggles with the stolen base, so look for the Tigers to bring their dynamic offense to the table again tonight.

Coming Out Hot

Like the offense, the Tigers’ bullpen has been hot coming out of the break.

In fact, the Tigers lead all of baseball with both a 0.48 ERA, 1.25 FIP, 2.49 xFIP, 0.00 HR/9 and 0.8 fWAR from their bullpen. Over their last 18.2 innings, they’ve posted an 11.57 K/9 against just 0.96 walks per nine, good for a second-ranked 12.00 K/BB ratio in the second half so far.

While the recent results are flat-out dominant, consistency has been a major issue. The Tigers still rank 27th with a 5.17 bullpen ERA on the season while their batted-ball data is subpar as well. They rank 27th with a 40.6% hard-hit rate and 24th with an 8.5% barrel rate to boot.

One thing that does bode well for the team tonight is the fact their bullpen is at full strength as their top guys are rested. They used their top three arms last night, but Kyle Funkhouser, Jose Cisnero and Gregory Soto — all of whom own sub-3.00 ERAs — did not pitch on Monday and are okay for back-to-back nights tonight.

Rangers vs. Tigers MLB Pick

Matt Manning has not been the epitome of reliability so far through five big-league starts, but Jordan Lyles certainly has not been either.

Lyles’ work on the road has been bad and I believe this Tigers team will run all over him in this one. This is a rolling Tigers offense that is the far superior group to that of the Rangers right now while the bullpen work has been lopsided towards the Tigers in a big way since the All-Star break.

Pick: Tigers
Odds: -119
$100 Could Win You...$184.03

We should also note that the Tigers are now 35-27 since May 8. Their 45-51 on the season with a -53 run differential, but this team has been far better than they’re getting credit for.

Finally, while the Tigers are a quality 26-22 at home this season, the Rangers own the American League’s worst road record at 13-35.

Add it up and I’ll take the Tigers to win this one on the moneyline at -119 odds over at BetUS!

James Peralta

As a recent addition to the GamblingSites.org team, James Peralta has been covering everything about casinos, sports, and laws that are specific to online gambling in Canada. James started writing about sports in 2007 during his first year at U of T Mississauga. ...

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