Red Sox vs. Yankees – MLB Pick For August 11th

by Kevin Roberts
on August 11, 2017

The Boston Red Sox head to Yankee Stadium on Friday night as they prepare to engage the New York Yankees in a tense weekend series. Boston is currently holding onto a 4.5 game lead atop the AL East and will be trying to keep a blistering 8-game winning streak going tonight.

New York has certainly slumped over the second half of the year, but they’re still in a perfect spot. Taking this series gets them right back within striking distance of the division lead and at the very worst would put them in the driver’s seat for a wild card spot.

While this is a huge series and a lot is on the line, it’s been clear for a while that these two teams are headed in different directions. Can Boston keep up its torrid pace on the road, or will New York’s nasty 32-20 home record shine bright when the action starts tonight?

Boston Red Sox (+112)
New York Yankees(-132)
Total: 9.5

Right away we can’t help but notice two things; the Total feels very playable and the Red Sox offer all of the value in this spot. New York typically takes care of business at home, but we have to lay more money to get more with them. The top MLB betting sites are handing Boston some serious value as road underdogs.

The Yanks aren’t trending in the direction we’d like, either. New York is just 4-6 over their last 10 games and will now trust in the services of lefty Jaime Garcia (5-8, 4.49 ERA), who will be toeing the rubber for his third team this year. Garcia’s Yankees debut didn’t go as planned, either, as he coughed up 5 runs and walked 4 batters in a regrettable performance against the Cleveland Indians.

Garcia isn’t a trash pitcher, but he’s not an elite option, either. The 31-year old southpaw can limit damage when he’s dialed in, but he’s throwing in a tough park and gets a stacked Boston lineup that is among the best in baseball at connecting on left-handed pitching.

The Red Sox don’t supply a ton of power against lefties, but they boast the 6th best batting average against that side of the plate. That figures to be bad news for a guy in Garcia that already tends to have issues with contact.

New York snatched up Garcia in an effort to strengthen their rotation, but did they really get an asset here? It’s tough to tell, as Garcia’s form since June has been shaky (5+ runs allowed in 5 of his last 8 games). That doesn’t mean he’ll crater in his home debut for New York, but it doesn’t promote much confidence, either.

On the other side, we get the more talented Eduardo Rodriguez (4-3, 4.08 ERA), who has dazzled at times in 2017 and has played mostly controlled ball lately. Rodriguez hasn’t been perfect and he does give up some hard contact, but he handled the Yanks fairly well last year when he posted a solid 3.31 ERA across 16 strong innings.

The big issue here is New York’s inability to consistently mash southpaws. The Yanks remain one of the deadliest offensive lineups in all of baseball, but they lose serious steam when taking on lefties. The base numbers show us that, as New York ranks 26th in batting average and 25th in runs scored when facing southpaws.

The reality is neither side produces a ton of power against left-handed pitching. To me, that takes some of the luster off of the Over and it might also make this park a little less fearful. You still have to worry about guys like Mookie Betts, Aaron Judge, and Gary Sanchez, but I wouldn’t be shocked to have this be a more controlled game.

Rodriguez gets the better numbers and the Red Sox offer the most value. Let’s side with Boston keeping their hot run going and squeaking this one out.

Pick: Boston Red Sox to Win (+112)
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