Categories: MLB

Red Sox vs Yankees – MLB Pick for May 10th

Boston Red Sox (-166)
VS
New York Yankees (+146)
Total: 9
All odds referenced in this article were taken from BetOnline at 10:30am ET on May 10, 2018. Odds may have changed since the time of this writing.

The New York Yankees might be good. New York’s 9-6 win over the Red Sox on Wednesday night put the Yanks into sole possession of first place in the NL East. It was the Yanks’ 8th consecutive win overall, and it’s not like they’ve been beating also-rans. The wins have all come at the expense of 3 of the best teams in baseball in the Astros, Indians and Red Sox.

Thursday night presents New York with the chance to sweep what has been the best team in baseball to start the year. CC Sabathia will take the mound for the Yankees opposite Red Sox southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez.

Sabathia has been excellent this season. The burly lefty has a record of 2-0 with a tidy 1.39 ERA through his first 6 starts of the new season. Sabathia used to be a high-strikeout pitcher, but he’s now a guy that lives on generating soft contact and ground balls.

While the veteran has pitched well, he profiles as a guy that won’t be able to keep that sparkling ERA going over the course of a full season. His SIERA, which gives us a better glimpse into how he’s pitched, is almost 3 full runs higher than his ERA. He’s been effective in limiting damage so far this season, but let’s not forget that he still allowed 21 home runs last year.

So far this season, Sabathia has surrendered just 3 homers across his 6 starts. He will still be effective in limiting the damage against lefty bats, but he’s shown a wide platoon split in previous years. The Red Sox have a few lefties he should be able to keep in check, but the right-handed bats like Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Hanley Ramirez and others figure to give him some trouble tonight.

Rodriguez has a 3-0 record on the year, but he hasn’t pitched particularly well. The 25-year-old has a 5.29 ERA, and he’s surrendered exactly 5 earned runs in back-to-back starts. Despite his struggles, the Sox have been giving him a long leash. He’s thrown at least 104 pitches in 4 of his 6 starts to begin the year.

He’s been effective in terms of strikeouts this season – as evidenced by his 28.1 percent K-rate – but walks have continued to be problematic (9.4 percent BB-rate). E-Rod is essentially the opposite of Sabathia in terms of regression. While CC figures to start struggling more at some point, Rodriguez should be able to turn things around. His SIERA is over 2 runs lower than his ERA.

Of course, there may not be a tougher matchup than going into New York to take on the stacked Yankees offense. Most of their better hitters swing it from the right side of the plate, though Rodriguez does profile as something of a neutral splits pitcher. Navigating a lineup with Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez is no cakewalk.

The over is set on 9 runs on this one, but I think that’s far too low. I’m hitting the over on 9 in this one tonight. I think we could see some fireworks.

Taylor Smith

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Taylor Smith

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