Rockets vs Warriors – NBA Game 4 Pick for May 22nd
Not only are the Warriors reestablished as the favorite to win this series, but they’ve also reestablished who the “big dog” is and that the Rockets are not on their level. In Game 3, the Warriors thoroughly dominated Houston and won by a historic margin 126 to 85. And, to those fans or pundits who ragged on Steph Curry for his poor Game 2 performance, he showed you all just how good he still is.
In Game 3, Curry finished with 35 points on 13-of-23 shooting and hit five 3-pointers. He not only led the Warriors in the route, but he also led all scorers in the game. Durant pitched in 25 points and Thompson added 13 points. Green had a big game with 17 rebounds and 10 points, while Iguodola added solid defense and 10 points.
For the Rockets, they had an abysmal performance. Not only was it the lowest amount of points that they’ve scored in the postseason, but it was quite possibly their worst performance this year. Houston finished with a 39.5% shooting from the floor, 32.4% from 3-pointers, 76.9% from the line and 20 turnovers compared to just 8 from the Warriors. They also had more fouls at 19 to 16 and 2 technicals to 1 for GS. Bottom line, they lost their composure along with the game and home court advantage.
So, I see no reason why the Warriors won’t win this game tonight. They’ve won 16 straight at home in the post season and I believe this will be their 17th straight. Nobody could predict that 41 point blowout win as most people were taking the points for the Rockets. The Warriors haven’t been good at covering the spread, as I detailed in my Game 3 preview. Even with their blowout win, their numbers ATS are still abysmal. They’re 1-10 ATS on Tuesdays, 19-27 ATS in home games, 11-22 ATS when playing against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season, and 3-6 ATS when leading a playoff series. None of that instills confidence in me.
After the Rockets have been blown out by 22 in Game 2 and 41 in Game 3, how can anyone think they will cover a spread in this series? I certainly don’t. They’re 2-6 ATS as an Underdog and 7-6 ATS in the playoffs this year. Once again, no confidence in this wager either.
The moneylines aren’t worth touching either. The Rockets (+355) are 6-19 SU in the last 25 games against the Warriors and 2-12 SU in their last 14 games at Golden State. The Warriors’ (-425) moneyline is just too high. Do you really want to risk that much on a team that could have a mental lapse and lose? The Pelicans almost took a game at Golden State, but fell by 5 due to inexperience. Houston has more experience and has the scorers to win a game if they’re within two possessions late in the 4th.
The safest bet is the Total and I like the Under in this game. Now, there are some numbers that support going with the Over, but I feel that the Rockets will play better on both ends of the floor, which will keep the game closer.
The Under is 6-1 in the Rockets last 7 games after allowing at least 125 points in the previous game, the Under is 28-17 in all road games, 14-7 against Pacific Division opponents, 2-1 in this series, has hit 4 of the Rockets last 6 games, is 6-2 in their last 8 road games, and is 9-4 in the last 13 games against the Warriors.
For Golden State, the under is 5-1 in their last 6 games, 5-1 in their last 6 games against the West, 5-1 in their last 6 games when allowing less than 100 points in their previous game, 5-1 in their last 6 when scoring more than 100 points in their previous game, 11-3 in their last 14 games after scoring 125 points or more in their previous game, 7-3 in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning road record, and 13-6 on one day’s rest.
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