Categories: NBA

Rockets vs Warriors – NBA Game 6 Pick for May 26th

If you are like me, then you are surprised that the Warriors have lost two straight games and look like the inferior team in this series. After flexing their muscles in Game 3, it appeared that Golden State was going to wipe the floor with the Rockets and win the series in 5 games. However, that all changed after Houston ended the Warriors 16 game home playoff win streak in Game 4 and also took Game 5. Both wins were ugly, but effective. It’s as if Houston discovered the blueprint for beating the Warriors. Unfortunately for the Rockets, those plans are going to be scrapped for Game 6 as they will be without Chris Paul, who’s out with a hamstring injury.

Paul has been a solid force in this series, often canceling out Steph Curry and picking up the scoring slack when Harden has struggled. Speaking of struggles, Harden only put up 19 points in Game 5 and has missed his last 11 three-point shots. He went 0-11 from downtown in Game 5. Paul combined for 47 points in Houston’s back-to-back wins and, unlike Harden, went 9-of-18 from downtown.

Game 5 also saw Eric Gordon come off the bench to lead the Rockets in scoring with 24 points. He will be called on to help Harden score with Paul out in Game 6. In 24 games without Paul this season, the Rockets went 15-9 SU.

The Warriors aren’t the same without Andre Iguodala, who has missed the last two games. As of this writing, Iguodala is questionable for Game 6. Golden State is 3-1 against Houston with Iggy in the lineup, but are 0-4 against the Rockets without him. If he’s able to suit up tonight, I would give him some minutes to prepare him for Game 7. They don’t need a big performance from Andre tonight because the Warriors are going to crush Houston without Chris Paul.

The Warriors starting 5 combined to score 90 of the team’s 94 points and they were led by Durant who had 29 points. Curry scored 22, but went 2-of-8 from downtown. Thompson bounced back after a few rough games to score 23 points and went 4-of-7 from beyond the arc. Even Green added 12 points and 15 rebounds. Typically, the Warriors win when they have this kind of team performance. Unfortunately, they came up on the short end of things and lost Game 5 by 4 points.

Since Kerr became head coach of the Warriors, they’ve gone 36-6 SU at home in the playoffs. They just had their 16 game home playoff streak ended, which makes them 16-1 SU in their last 17 home playoff games. Additionally, they’re scoring 113.1 ppg at home. So, the majority of fans and pundits expect the Warriors to win tonight. However, a -1050 moneyline is just absurd to bet on and provides no value.

All series long, I’ve stated how uncomfortable I am with the Warriors covering a spread at home. They’re 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games and the Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. With that said, I’m going with the Total this game and I’m looking at the Under.

In the Conference Finals, the Under is 4-1 and it’s 5-1 in the last 6 head-to-head meetings. For Houston, the Under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games, 10-5 on Saturday games, 16-7 against the Pacific Division, and 8-2 as the Underdog. For the Warriors, the Under is 7-1 in their last 8 games, 15-9 when avenging a loss against an opponent, and 16-6 when playing against a team that scores more than 106 ppg in the 2nd half of the season.

Without Paul, I see this game being closer to Game 1’s result of 119 to 106 for the Warriors. Just not as many total points scored. Probably, something more in the range of 113 to 95.

Rick Rockwell

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Rick Rockwell

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