Rockies vs. Diamondbacks – MLB Pick For September 11th

by Kevin Roberts
on September 11, 2017

The NL West is probably decided already, but there’s no denying it’s getting pretty interesting. Not only have the mighty Los Angeles Dodgers taken a nosedive with 10 consecutive losses, but the Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks have taken advantage with runs in the opposite direction.

We get to see which team is truly hotter when the two rivals butt heads in a new series on Monday night.

Colorado is in great form after sweeping L.A. at Dodger stadium and they’ll enter a great hitting environment at Chase Field riding a sweet 4-game winning streak. The Rockies are in a nice groove at the moment when it comes to their bats and with a 6-4 run over their last 10 contests, they should pose a tough threat to the D’Backs.

Arizona has actually been even better, though. The Diamondbacks are 8-2 over their last 10 games and get to set up shop at home, where they’re an elite 46-25.

Vegas wants us to be drawn to Colorado, as the most legit MLB betting sites like Bovada are making them an enticing value bet at +170. Maybe we can go there, but there might be more evidence backing Arizona. Let’s dig in and find out where our betting loyalties should lie tonight:

Colorado Rockies (+170)
VS
Arizona Diamondbacks (-200)
Total: 9

Two things: Chase Field is a dangerous park, so this Total is absolutely in play and the Rockies offer a ton of value so a flier bet is certainly worth considering.

But I’m going to hang my hat on a few things. For one, Colorado is not a reliable team on the road. They just swept the Dodgers in a road series, but I’m not even sure we can take that seriously given how awful Los Angeles has been lately.

Colorado deserves some credit there, but they’re still just 37-34 on the road and their offense tends to sputter outside of Coors Field. They obviously get some help from the park here, but they also have to face Zack Greinke (16-6, 3.01 ERA) who has been awesome in general in 2017, but absolutely staggering at home (13-1, 2.31 ERA).

The Rockies have gotten to Greinke a bit this year, but he’s typically gotten the last laugh with a 2-1 record and a stable 3.62 ERA across four starts. None of this means the Rockies can’t unload on Greinke, but I doubt they do. Maybe they do enough to contribute to what feels like an obtainable Over or perhaps Arizona’s offense just doesn’t scrape out the win. All of that keeps the Rockies at +170 in play.

Of course, I doubt the D’Backs don’t show up considering they’ll be facing the very beatable Kyle Freeland (11-10, 3.99 ERA). Freeland isn’t total trash, but he’s certainly not elite and he inexplicably is worse outside of Coors Field (4.39 ERA, .296 collective batting average allowed.

Like Greinke, Freeland has at least been passable against the D’Backs (1-1, 3.60 ERA), while the Diamondbacks have not put up elite efficiency numbers against southpaws this year. Paul Goldschmidt and J.D. Martinez both destroy left-handed pitching, though, while Arizona’s bats as a whole display nice power (13th in home runs against lefties).

This still all boils down to Greinke, though. He is why I’d be a little timid to bet the Over and why I’m not being suckered into taking the Rockies on the road – even at +170. Arizona isn’t giving us anything straight up here, so let’s double down and aim high with their -1.5 Run Line, which gets us a solid +110 line at Bovada.

Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 Run Line (+110)
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