On Sunday, the San Francisco 49ers travel to the heartland of America as they take on the Kansas City Chiefs in a matchup that features two, young QBs who look like the future of the NFL. The 49ers will look to play solid defense and match scores with KC. The Chiefs will look to get the offense warmed up and run wild over the 49ers. Kickoff inside Arrowhead Stadium is at 1 PM ET.
|Betting Data History||San Francisco 49ers||Kansas City Chiefs|
|2018 ATS Home||0-1||0-0|
|2018 ATS Away||0-1||2-0|
|2018 O/U Home||1-0||0-0|
|2018 O/U Away||0-1||2-0|
Since 1971, these two teams have played against each other 12 times with the 49ers leading the series 7-5. They last played against each other in 2014 and the 49ers won 22-17. The Chiefs have won 2 of the last 3 meetings. They’ve also won the last 4 games at Arrowhead.
San Francisco (1-1) took out the Detroit Lions last Sunday after a strong offensive performance at home. But, the team will have to step it up a notch as they head out to play at one of the toughest stadiums in the NFL – Arrowhead. Will the 49ers slow down this high powered KC offense or will they get steamrolled like the Steelers and Chargers?
Kansas City (2-0) looks like the best offense in the NFL and second year QB Patrick Mahomes looks like an early MVP candidate. The Chiefs are normally a difficult team to beat at home, but with the way this offense is playing, the 49ers will have an extremely tough time on Sunday. Can KC cruise to another victory on the season?
The spread opened with the Chiefs favored by 4.5 points. Since then, it has climbed up to 6.5 points. The Over/Under opened at 52.5 points and currently sits at 56 total points.
The 49ers had a tough opening week on the road at Minnesota. However, they were able to close the gap to a 24-16 loss despite being shut down on offense for most of the game. From there, the 49ers bounced back in Week 2 to win 30-27 over the Lions. The 49ers put up 346 total yards and got out to a 27-13 lead heading into the 4th quarter.
San Francisco had a balanced attack with Breida leading the way on the ground with 138 yards. Garoppolo had 206 yards and 2 TDs through the air, as he led the offense up and down the field. It should be noted that Jimmy G. has 3 TDs and 3 INTs on the year, which doesn’t bode well for him heading into KC.
Although the 49ers had a big lead last week, they did give up 347 yards to Stafford and 427 total yards to the Lions. For the year, the 49ers are allowing 402.5 total yards with 295.5 coming via the pass. That’s good news for Chiefs fans as Mahomes is averaging 291 passing yards and 5 TDs per game. He set an NFL record for 10 TD throws in the first 2 games of the season. And, I don’t see him slowing down this weekend against the 49ers.
I also like Kareem Hunt to get going this weekend as the Niners have allowed 107 ypg on the ground. Keep in mind, the Lions have no running game. The Chiefs have a solid running game led by Hunt who was the NFL leading rusher last year. Although he’s been slowed down in the first two weeks, combined with Mahomes hot start, you can bet the Chiefs will look to get Hunt going on Sunday.
In the passing game, the 49ers will have to pick their poison as to who they will try to shut down. Will it be Tyreke Hill with his 259 receiving yards and his 4 total touchdowns or Travis Kelce who went off on the Steelers last weekend for 109 yards and 2 TDs? Don’t forget Sammy Watkins who also posted a 100 yard receiving day against the Steelers.
If there’s any silver lining for the 49ers this week it’s that the Chiefs defense is giving up 516 total ypg and 438 passing ypg. Jimmy G. could have a monster weekend, but he will most likely do what Big Ben and Philip Rivers did, which is rack up the stats while playing from way behind.
The 49ers are 1-5 ATS in their previous Week 3 games, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against the AFC, 3-5 ATS in their last 8 games during September, 3-7 ATS when listed as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, and 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams with winning home records.
The Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games during September, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 overall games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 grass games, 5-1 ATS following a SU win, 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games after giving up more than 250 passing yards in the prior game, and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against San Francisco.
I like the Chiefs in this game. I expect them to get out to a big lead and possibly win by two touchdowns or more. The only thing stopping me from picking this as a blowout win is that they have let their last 2 opponents put up points late in the game to close the gap. I’m taking the Chiefs to win 34 to 24.
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