Seahawks vs Jaguars – NFL Pick for December 10th
All odds that are referenced in this article were taken from BetOnline at 1:28 on 12/7/2017. These odds may have changed since the time of this writing.
At the start of the season, I felt completely lost with my NFL picks. I was getting burned left and right and quickly found myself in an ugly 1-5 hole. It only got worse from there, as my predictions eventually stretched out for a nasty 2-7 start.
Fortunately, I hung in there and hopefully, bettors did the same. I picked up the pieces slowly and now enter week 14 of the 2017 NFL season with five wins in my last six picks (7-8, overall).
The NFL can be volatile and you never know when the rug is going to get ripped out from under you, but lately, I’ve had my finger on the league’s pulse. The 49ers scored me my second win in a row last week, as they rode several field goals to a road upset over the Chicago Bears.
I’m shooting for a third straight win this week and I see some interesting value in a number of spots. I honestly see this week as a great spot for the Cleveland Browns to potentially get their first win, but at +155 at Bovada, I need more value to back an 0-12 team.
There are a number of paths to consider on this NFL betting slate, but ultimately I’m hitching my wagon to the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks are coming off an impressive 24-10 beatdown against the Philadelphia Eagles and at 8-4 finally look like a team ready to earn their way into the playoffs.
Seattle can still win the NFC West, while they simply need to avoid having the same record as a couple of other teams to nab a wild-card spot. For now, they control their own destiny and will be tasked with stopping the Jaguars on the road in Jacksonville.
The Jaguars are also 8-4 and like Seattle, are facing stiff competition for their division title. They enter the new week as mild favorites, as they’ll be defending a solid 4-2 home record.
I’ve backed both of these teams this year and neither worked out in the end. Now that they’re facing off against each other, I’m hoping finally to get on the right side of one of them.
The safety probably resides with the Jags, in theory. They have the comfort of playing at home and they seem to have the superior defense. Jacksonville sports the league’s #1 overall defense and also ranks first in sacks.
That’s a troubling stat for the visiting Seahawks, as Russell Wilson is 9th in the league for sacks taken. Needless to say, Vegas sees the pass protection issues for Seattle and that this matchup in the trenches probably favors the Jags.
I don’t deny that, but I still want the Seahawks with a nice +115 line. This +3 spread is too tight for me to get behind no matter which side you want to get on and I simply don’t trust Blake Bortles in this setting.
Russell Wilson will take his lumps in this one and the Seahawks will understandably have some issues. Undoubtedly, this will not be the most explosive offensive game of the week and if you want to go after the Total, the Under would certainly make a lot of sense.
Seattle stepped back up last week and reminded everyone that they can still defend, though. The Legion of Boom is down to one healthy stud in Seattle’s secondary, yet the Seahawks gave arguably the best team in football – the Eagles – fits all night in a huge game.
No matter what Jacksonville’s defense can do to Wilson, he at least has the ability to escape pressure and make plays with his legs. He also has the ability to extend plays and allow for his speedy receivers to get open down the field.
Blake Bortles isn’t a statue, but his athleticism hasn’t translated to the NFL level like Wilson’s has and he rarely shines in the face of elite pressure – let alone against average defenses.
Leonard Fournette could easily be the x-factor for the Jags, but the Seattle front line is what scares me the most. The Seahawks have the 7th best run defense in the league right now and held the NFL’s second-best rushing offense below 100 total rushing yards last week.
I get that Seattle will have their hands full figuring out how to score on the Jags, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Bortles didn’t lead a single touchdown drive in this one. In what could be a battle of field goals, I’ll side with the veteran team with the vastly superior talent under center.
The best part is I’m getting the underdog Seahawks at a value. Seattle at +115 isn’t insane, but it’s better than even money in a spot I think they’ll get the win.
You can even hold off a bit and shop around to see if that line thickens in Seattle’s favor. It could always turn into a pick’em, though, so now may be the time to jump on the Seahawks.