Week three brings several new value picks to consider on the NFL betting slate. We bounced back nicely with the Falcons over the Packers in week two after foolishly backing the Giants at +170 in week one.
It could be worse than .500 through two weeks, so we’ll take the win and try to get to 2-1 this week. We get a great chance to do that on a heavy slate with plenty of interesting betting opportunities.
One of those spots brings two 1-1 squads together at Nissan Stadium, where the Titans and Seahawks will face off. Both teams won in week two and will be trying to keep the positive momentum rolling with their second straight victory.
That’s easier said than done, as the Seahawks have looked pretty shaky through the first two weeks, while the surging Titans looked downright nasty last week.
Can Seattle improve on their o-line enough to pick up their first road win of the year, or should we roll with the Titans? Let’s dig into this week three matchup a little further to find out:
Seattle Seahawks (+125)
Tennessee Titans (-145)
The value is clear here from both sides. Anytime a decent home team is around -150 or better, you need to consider it if it makes sense. It might, but the Titans didn’t look great in a home loss in week one and are the inferior team on paper.
That takes us back to the Seahawks, who have one of the most mobile passers in the game in Russell Wilson. That’s bad news for a Titans pass rush that hasn’t exactly been elite through the first two weeks. In addition, Chris Carson has emerged in the backfield for the Seahawks, hopefully giving Seattle a solid ground game and the balance they so desperately need.
Seattle’s shaky o-line is still the chief concern and those problems on the line don’t tend to go away on the road. Stil, Seattle is a rare underdog in a setting where it feels like Vegas is devaluing them. Bovada hands us one of the best lines (+125) we’re going to find, as the Seahawks are traditionally quite good when doubted by the betting public.
That hasn’t been the case lately (0-5 ATS) in their last 5 road games, but I think Seattle can snap out of their early-season funk. They have some banged up bodies, but they might be uncovering a gem at running back and their defense is too nasty to have us really trust the Titans.
It took Aaron Rodgers nearly three full quarters to put a touchdown on this Seattle defense, while the 49ers didn’t find the end-zone all game last week. Tennessee is better than San Francisco and they’re at home, but it’s not like they’ve been firing on all cylinders.
A lot of Tennessee’s offensive success last week was thanks to good field position and awful play from Blake Bortles. Russell Wilson is a much tougher assignment on the other side, while the Titans are going to find it difficult to keep up if Seattle is putting points on the board.
The Titans still aren’t showing great chemistry in the passing game, as Eric Decker and Marcus Mariota aren’t yet on the same page. Throw in an injury to rookie receiver Corey Davis, and there’s enough here to back the Seattle defense, rather than the Titans at home.
Tennessee should keep it close and may have been a fun upset pick if the line was shifted, but it’s weird to see Seattle as an underdog. This game should play right into their hand and while it should still be fairly low-scoring, I expect the Seahawks to come away with a win and get to 2-1.
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