Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles Pick – Tampa Bay (-300)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers play their second Thursday night contest of the young season when they travel to take on the Philadelphia Eagles. Tampa has won two straight and the Eagles are coming off a big win versus Carolina, making this a pretty savory NFC inter-divisional clash.
The Eagles are trying to prove that their rebuilding process is moving along much quicker than expected, while the Bucs are trying to take care of business against a team they’re supposed to beat. We’ll find out who prevails when the game kicks off from Lincoln James Field in Philadelphia on Thursday night at 8:20 PM Eastern Time.
This has been a tight series throughout the years since the Buccaneers entered the NFC as an expansion team in the late 70s. Philly currently leads the series, but it’s tight at 10-9. Thursday’s game features a young Eagles team trying to pull off the upset off the defending NFL champions.
With the exception of a rough outing against the Rams, Tampa Bay has looked very much the bully in the NFC once again. They did have a close call against Dallas in Week 1, but the Cowboys haven’t lost since. In their other three games, Tampa has rolled to comfortable victories behind a powerhouse offense and the ageless Tom Brady.
Philly raised expectations with a blowout win on the road in their opener over Atlanta. But then they slid into a three-game losing streak, including a pair of home losses and a drubbing at the hands of Dallas. But they bounced back nicely last week with a surprise, come-from-behind victory over Carolina.
Opening Odds and Line Movement for Game
Betting has pushed the point spread in favor of Tampa Bay since the line opened up at 6 1/2 points. It quickly jumped to seven points and stayed their for a bit. In the last day or so, it jumped again to 7 1/2 points.
At the start of the week, the over/under opened up at 53 points, a relatively high number. At one point it took a pretty severe two-point dip to 51. But then it started working its way back to the 52.5-point marker, which is where it stands right now.
Head to Head Betting Trends
The road team has won three of the last four games played in this series between Tampa and Philly
The team that won the game between these two teams also covered the spread in eacj of the last 16 games they played against each other
The underdog has won the game outright in three of the last four games between the Eagles and Bucs
Tampa Bay has won the game as an underdog each of the last two games they played Philadelphia
The over has been the correct bet in the last three games between these two teams and in five of the last six
Tampa Bay Betting Trends
Tampa Bay has failed to cover the spread in either of the two games that they’ve played on the road so far this year
The over has come in so far in four of the five games that the Buccaneers have played in the 2021 season
The Buccaneers are 9-1 outright in their last ten games played on the road
In their last five games against NFC East teams, Tampa Bay hasn’t covered the spread (four losses and one push)
The Buccaneers have covered the point spread just 37 percent of the time over the last three years in the month of October
The Bucs have been solid in road games with high projected point totals (49.5 orr over), covering 72 percent of those games since 2019
Tampa is one game under .500 covering the spread over the last three seasons when they are favored
They are one game over .500 against the spread in all road games since 2019
Philadelphia Betting Trends
The Eagles have lost both of their home games so far this season and have failed to cover the spread in either of those games
In the last 15 games that Philly has played, the under has been the right bet 67 percent of the time
In the Eagles’ last five NFC games, the under has been the right bet four times
The Eagles have won their last six games played on Thursdays
In games with high projected point totals (over 49.5)over the past three years, Philly has lost seven straight and is just 2-5 against the spread
Philly is one game over .500 against the spread since 2019 against teams with a winning record
Their winning percentage against the spread at home over the past three years is 44.4
As a home underdog of between 7 1/2 and 10 points since 1993, the Eagles have covered the spread 89 percent of the time
Free Bet and Game Prediction:
First of all, the team that behaves themselves the best might have a big advantage. These are two of the three worst teams in the league so far this year when it comes to being penalized. For the Eagles, it’s been especially costly, taking crucial points off the board in a few of their losses.
The good news for Philly is that their defense came up with a solid game against Carolina to rebound from when they were thrashed by Dallas and Kansas City. Now their task to hold up against the most prolific passing attack in the league. Tampa throws it more for more yardage than any other team in the league.
Tom Brady will exploit whatever weaknesses he can as long as he is not pressured. That puts the onus on the Eagle front four, a veteran group that is missing a key element in Brandon Graham. Can they bother Brady enough to make him flinch from hitting Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and the rest?
The Buccaneer defense has been lacking compared to what they did down the stretch a year ago. Remember how they were in the face of Pat Mahomes all game long in the Super Bowl. This season, their sack percentage is 29th in the league, as they’ve let guys like Dak Prescott and Matthew Stafford fire away.
Jalen Hurts has been inconsistent through his first five games, yet his status as a run/pass threat could cause issues. Philly doesn’t run the ball much at all, which is probably for the best against the Bucs’ top-ranked unit against the run. But if they can keep Hurts clean, he should have open receivers.
Ultimately, the Buccaneers are just a little bit more efficient with their passing, meaning that there should be few empty trips. Philly should stay close at home with their young, quick offense coming up with some big plays. That will get them the cover, but it probably won’t get them the win, as the Bucs eventually prevail.
Spread: Tampa Bay -7.5 (+115), Philadelphia +7.5 (-135)
Over/Under: 52.5(Over -108, Under -112)
Prediction: Tampa Bay 34, Philadelphia 28
Jim Beviglia joined Gamblingsites.org as a staff writer in 2018, parlaying his years of freelance writing into contributions on a number of different topics. He handles the sport of horse racing for GamblingSites.org and the intersection between the worlds of cryptocurrency and online gambling in a weekly blog.
For his full-time job, Jim handles the television and track announcing duties at a h ...
The information found on Gamblingsites.org is for entertainment purposes only. It is a purely informational website that does not accept wagers of any kind. Although certain pages within Gamblingsites.org feature or promote other online websites where users are able to place wagers, we encourage all visitors to confirm the wagering and/or gambling regulations that are applicable in their local jurisdiction (as gambling laws may vary in different states, countries and provinces).
Gamblingsites.org uses affiliates links from some of the sportsbooks/casinos it promotes and reviews, and we may receive compensation from those particular sportsbooks/casinos in certain circumstances. Gamblingsites.org does not promote or endorse any form of wagering or gambling to users under the age of 18. If you believe you have a gambling problem, please visit BeGambleAware or GAMCARE for information and help.