Thanksgiving Day kicks off with the Detroit Lions hosting the Houston Texans. This matchup is like a morning snack to hold you over until the turkey, stuffing, mashed potatoes and other delicious foods are ready.
The Texans are hoping to get one step closer to a winning record, while Detroit is trying to hang on to any hopes of the Playoffs and crawl out of the NFC North basement. Which team will get the big Holiday win? Kickoff inside Ford Field is at 12:30PM ET.
The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:
|Houston Texans||-2.5 (-115)||-150||Over 51 (-110)|
|Detroit Lions||+2.5 (-105)||+140||Under 51 (-110)|
|Betting Data||Houston Texans||Detroit Lions|
|2020 ATS Home||2-3||1-3|
|2020 ATS Away||1-4||3-3|
|2020 O/U Home||1-4||4-0|
|2020 O/U Away||4-1||2-4|
This is just the 5th time that these two teams have played against each other. Houston holds the advantage with a 3-1 record. They last played in 2016 and the Texans won 20 to 13. The Lions are 1-1 at home versus the Texans.
Detroit has been a Thanksgiving Day fixture since 1934. The Lions have played on Turkey Day 80 times and have an overall record of 37-41-2. The Texans are 1-0 on Thanksgiving with their lone game played in 2012.
The spread opened with the Texans favored by two points. Since then, most NFL betting sites have the Texans favored by 2.5 points. The Over/Under opened at 51.5 points and has come down slightly to an O/U of 51 total points.
The Lions have dropped their last two Thanksgiving Day games and it looks like they could make it three in a row if Week 11 is any indication. Yes, Detroit was without several playmakers on offense, but to get shutout 20-0 against the Panthers is inexcusable.
Detroit needs to improve their rushing attack and that could happen this week against the Texans who allow 159.3 rushing yards per game. But, Houston is coming off a strong performance against the Patriots as they limited one of the top rushing attacks to half of their season total.
If Houston can turn in another defensive performance like they did in Week 11 then the Lions are in serious trouble.
Detroit is already facing an uphill climb on defense as their pass defense allows 270.9 yards per game and the Texans average 288.3 passing ypg. Furthermore, the Lions give up 28.7ppg, which bodes well for a Texans team that has scored at least 27 points in three of their last five games.
Although Houston lacks a ground game, it didn’t stop them against the Patriots last weekend. I see the Texans continuing their air raid attack on Thursday as they carve up the Lions secondary like a juicy turkey. Look for Houston QB DeShaun Watson to flirt with 300 yards and 3 TDs.
Houston is 7-2 SU in their last nine November games and I expect them to pick up another win. Detroit laying an egg on Thanksgiving has seemingly become an annual tradition. This year, the Texans will take that egg and make devils eggs out of them.
Detroit is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 November games, 1-4 ATS as a home underdog of 3pts or less, and 2-4 ATS as underdog this season.
I think Houston will get out to a double digit lead and hold on to win by at least a field goal as the Lions make a late game comeback.
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