The Super Bowl 53 Winning Pick: New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Rams

by Rick Rockwell
on January 31, 2019
4

Minute Read

On Sunday, the world will gather to watch the biggest sporting spectacle of the year – Super Bowl 53. And, for the 9th time in the last 18 years, the New England Patriots will be one of the featured stars of this gridiron drama.

New England returns to the Super Bowl for the third straight year and will take on the Los Angeles Rams in a rematch of Super Bowl 36. Both teams feature high scoring offenses and superstars at the skilled positions. But, this game could come down to whichever defense makes the most plays.

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Are you ready for some football? Kickoff inside the Mercedes-Benz Stadium is at 6:30 PM ET.

Patriots vs Rams Live Odds and Betting History

The following odds are courtesy of live odds feed:

Betting Data New England Patriots Los Angeles Rams
Current S/U record 13-5 15-3
2018 Home 9-0 8-1
2018 Away 4-5 7-2
2018 ATS 11-7 9-7-2
2018 ATS Home 7-2 4-3-2
2018 ATS Away 4-5 5-4
2018 O/U 7-11 8-9-1
2018 O/U Home 3-6 6-2-1
2018 O/U Away 4-5 2-1

Patriots vs Rams Super Bowl 53 Preview

Heading into SB LIII, the Patriots and the Rams have played against each other a total of 13 times. New England has the advantage with a record of 8-5. Most notably, New England defeated the Rams at SB 36 back in 2001, which sparked the current Brady-Belichick Patriots dynasty. Furthermore, the Patriots have won 5 straight games against the Rams dating back to SB 36.

New England (13-5) has become synonymous with the Super Bowl in this millennium. They have now played in half of the Super Bowls since 2001, and appear destined to reach at least one more before Tom Brady finally retires.

With that said, the Patriots have a huge advantage in SB experience over the Rams. But, will that affect the outcome of this game?

Los Angeles (15-3) has shown an improved defense in the playoffs and a physical running game that has worn down their two postseason opponents. With a solid balance on offense and a dangerous play-action attack, it appears that the Rams are poised for a big offensive output against the Patriots.

However, whenever New England head coach Bill Belichick has a few weeks to prepare for another team, he tends to pull out a solid game plan. Just ask the Chiefs. Can Belichick stifle this Rams offense?

The initial opening of the Super Bowl 53 betting lines saw some dramatic movement as the Rams were a -1 point favorite. But, an onslaught of sharp action quickly turned the Patriots from an underdog to a 2.5 point favorite where they currently sit at with the majority of Super Bowl betting sites.

However, there are a few online sportsbooks that do have the Patriots at -3 points. The Over/Under has also seen some movement as it opened at 58 points, but has gradually come down to 56.5 total points.

Free SB 53 Sports Bet and Game Prediction: LA Rams +2.5 (-105)

Every angle, stat, and trend has been analyzed to death as we get closer to the Super Bowl kickoff. With that said, there are a few key matchups that will have a significant impact on this game.

Offensively, both teams can run the ball effectively. In the playoffs, the Rams averaged 175 ypg and the Patriots averaged 165.5 ypg. For the season, the Rams were 3rd at 139.4 ypg and the Patriots were 5th at 127.3 ypg.

For either offense to have success on Sunday, it will begin with their running game.

Both teams love to use the play action pass and both are highly successful at it. Not only will running the ball set up the pass, but it will also control the clock and keep the other offense off the field.

Keep in mind, these are two of the top five overall offenses from the regular season. The Rams were 2nd overall at 421.1 total ypg and the Patriots were 5th at 393.4 total ypg. In the postseason, they were the top two offenses as New England was 1st with 511 total ypg and the Rams were 2nd at 418.5 total ypg.

When looking at what both offenses have done in the postseason, I’m more impressed with the Rams as they went up against two great defenses in the Saints and Cowboys. Where the Patriots went up against a good Chargers defense and one of the worst defenses in the NFL – the Chiefs.

On the defensive side of the ball, I am also more impressed with what the Rams did in the postseason than the Patriots.

LA is 2nd in total defense allowing 299 total ypg and the Patriots are 4th at 312.5 ypg.

Specifically, I am most impressed with what the Rams have done only allowing 49 rushing ypg. Although the Patriots have only allowed 30 rushing ypg, the Rams went up against two of the top rushing offenses in the NFL where the Patriots went up against pass-heavy offenses in the Chargers and Chiefs.

All of this sets up for a great chess game and plenty of pieces to maneuver. It’s also why many people believe this will be a close Super Bowl, just like their first encounter.

I believe the Rams have the advantage in the run department as they have the best running back in the NFL with Todd Gurley. They also have a stud backup RB in Anderson who has helped to make this rushing attack lethal.

Another aspect to consider, the Patriots have dominated their opponents with running backs that catch the ball out of the backfield. They will now play against a team that can fully accomplish the same thing. In fact, Gurley might be the MVP of this game with what he will do running the ball and catching the ball.

Another area that I believe will be key, is the Rams secondary against the Patriots receivers. With Talib back, this secondary has improved a lot. They shut down the Cowboys passing game and did a solid job against the Saints. I believe they will do the same against the Patriots.

Lastly, whichever team can control the line of scrimmage will win the game. With that said, I believe the Rams have a better offensive line and they definitely have a better defensive line with Donald and Suh.

The Patriots are 3-5 ATS in their previous 8 Super Bowls and 1-2 ATS in their last 3 games where the line is +3 to -3. They’re also just 2-4 ATS when playing on grass fields. The Rams are 1-0 SU as an underdog, 11-2 SU on grass and 4-0 SU against the AFC.

This will be a close game that could be decided by a last minute field goal. With that said, I really like the Rams spread at +3 (-110). Make sure you shop around for the best SB 53 betting line.

Additionally, I actually believe the Rams can win this game. The safe bet is on the Rams +3, but a bet on the Rams moneyline of +130 could net you a bigger return on your investment.

Patriots vs Rams Betting Recap:

  • Oddsmaker: BetOnline
  • Moneylines: Rams (+130) and Patriots (-150)
  • Spread: Patriots -2.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under: 56.5 total points (-110)
  • Prediction: Rams 30 – Patriots 27
Pick: Rams +3
-105

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Rick Rockwell

As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site.

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