Thunder vs Warriors – NBA Pick for February 6th
I ran into a tough stretch for a second there, but bounced back on Monday when the Detroit Pistons took down the Portland Trail Blazers. The win snapped an ugly losing streak and lifted my season NBA picks mark to 46-35-2.
On Tuesday there are plenty of opportunities for bettors, as the NBA pushes out a fully loaded eight-game schedule.
That looks like a strong betting slate at first glance, but there’s no denying that it could get dicey with four games boasting point spreads of -7 or greater. One of those thick spreads feels a bit dicey and goes down in Golden State tonight when the Warriors host the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Dubs are obviously very dangerous. Stephen Curry and company is 41-12 on the year and haven’t dropped two games in a row all season. Having lost their last game, it’s a fairly safe bet they stand tall at the Oracle Arena (19-6 there this year) and get the win.
However, OKC did snag a blowout win at home earlier this year against the Warriors and they do have the defensive chops to keep this one interesting. Neither team is even .500 against the spread overall, but the Thunder look appealing thanks to a strong 3-1 record ATS as road underdogs.
Bettors have three options tonight. They can target this Total, roll with the spread or just simply vouch for OKC, straight up. The Thunder certainly do provide nice upside (+420 at 5Dimes), after all.
As tempting as that is, OKC hasn’t had a lot of luck in this series. The Dubs have handed the Thunder numerous blowouts while winning seven of the last eight meetings.
Just as important, OKC has had major difficulty (11-15) on the road this year and are again reeling with four straight losses behind them.
There is serious betting value associated with OKC, but that’s not a dive I’m prepared to take. Golden State is still a tough out in any regard, and as previously noted, they’re beasts at home and haven’t lost successive games yet this year.
You know Kevin Durant is going to get up for this game, too, so as much as the Thunder will want to win, the motivation factor is probably a wash.
It’s not a waste to think about OKC as a straight up bet, but it is for Golden State’s side. The Warriors offer zero value (-475 at BetOnline) as a straight-up bet. Not only is this far from an easy matchup, but the payoff is just terrible.
The only bets concerning the Dubs you should be looking at are the Total and the spread. This is a pretty rich spread for the Warriors to cover, though. They haven’t been elite in this regard (23-29-1) on the year and for one reason or another, things haven’t worked out so well (9-15-1) ATS when favored at home.
Part of the problem is Vegas thinks so highly of the Dubs – especially at the Oracle Arena – that they demand them to meet thick spreads. This isn’t a spot where I’d be too keen on betting on them doing so, though.
The Total is in play, but not for the reasons some might think. Yes, this could be an offensive explosion, but 230 is a lofty Total. The Over is just 26-27 for the Dubs this year, too, while OKC has seen the Over go just 24-30.
Both teams are capable of putting up tons of points, but they’re also both very talented defensively. A season-ending injury to perimeter ace Andre Roberson admittedly hurts the Thunder on the outside, but both of these defenses still rank inside the top six in terms of defensive efficiency for the moment.
The series history hasn’t even allowed for this Total that often. In fact, this specific Total has hit on the Over just once in the last six showdowns between these two teams. If I’m laying down big money here, I’m betting on the Under.
The most attractive bet, however, is taking the points with OKC.
Things are not exactly trending in OKC’s favor, but this is still a very talented team that can put up points and defend on the outside. They don’t match up as well with the Dubs as they did when Roberson was healthy, but they’re still not an easy draw.
More importantly, this is a game the Thunder will get up for. In addition, this team is riding a four-game skid and badly needs a win. Whether they get it or not, I expect them to play hard and keep this one very interesting.
I do like the Dubs to stand their ground at home in the end, but this game should still feature a good amount of points and projects as a fairly competitive contest. I think 10 points may be a bit too much to cover here, so I’ll ride with the Thunder to at least keep it remotely close.
$100 Stake Wins......